The Provos' Army Council must stay in existence, or dissident republicans will unleash a Gaza-style bomb and bullet blitz across the North.
When the Troubles were in full swing, the Army Council kept the peace in republican heartlands.
That's no longer the case. All dissidents need to do is plug one peeler and the war mongers are back in business.
The Shinners are now nothing more than Fianna Fail with attitude. A whole generation of republicans have emerged who haven't served their apprenticeships in the Provos.
To dissidents, the modern day 'democrats' in Sinn Féin who implement British rule at Stormont and a pro-Treaty government in the Dáil are only a bunch of draft dodgers.
Such dissidents style themselves like the old communist Viet Cong guerrillas of the 1970s – shooting at the last American helicopter as it swept out of Saigon.
The British and Irish governments are prepared to tolerate an acceptable level of violence – what's a few burned down Orange halls after all?
But killing a copper – that would bring a whole heap of trouble on the fragile DUP/SF coalition Executive.
Like Dev before the Civil War in the 1920s, it would prove there are republicans prepared to fight on and implement a military solution to the North.
It would be a red rag to a bull to the buck eejits calling themselves the Orange Volunteers, who would retaliate by killing an innocent Catholic or a soft target nationalist politician.
The IRA Army Council is needed to keep republican militants in check. The Adams/McGuinness Shinner leadership – like Paisley in Unionism – will not be around forever.
The huge long-term worry for the Shinners is that they are not grooming a credible leadership for the eventual handing over of power.
A fully operational Army Council is required to prevent a coup against Adams and McGuinness. Grassroots republicans respect the Army Council. Without that organised structure, the IRA leadership is a mere load of meaningless names.
And don't assume any new dissident onslaught will make the same mistake as the 1956 IRA which limited its campaign to a border war. The New IRA will want to steep the North in the same sectarian bloodbath as the Provos.
Will the Brits and Dublin sit back and allow the New IRA to commit Hamas-style atrocities across Ireland? Not a chance!
Like Israel, the British security forces will fight fire with fire. Okay, I'm not saying they will seal off south Armagh and shell Crossmaglen. But the SAS will be back in strength.
And this time, with all the cross-border co-operation, the term 'border incursion' will be confined to the dustbin of history. 'Hot pursuit' will be the order of the day.
New IRA units will be chased into the Republic by the SAS, and the Garda special teams will come North to hunt Southern-based dissident raiders.
And there will be a trade off – if the SAS are allowed to shoot the New IRA in the South, Garda anti-terrorism snipers will be given the green light to pick off OV killers in the North.
This is a scenario Peter Robinson must avoid. The tactic is simple – stop moaning about the need for the IRA Army Council to disband; concentrate on combating the credit crunch – and let the Army Council hold the line in republicanism.
