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ireland, irish, ulster, ireland, irish, ulster, Sinn Féin, Irish America

Shinners brew up a Storm-ont!

(John Coulter, Irish Daily Star)

Shinner supremos King Gerry and Marty McGuinness might seem off their rockers with their latest overtures to Unionists – but they should actually be awarded Tacticians of the Year Awards.

At first reading, it appears political suicide for Dáil Sinn Féin boss Adams to urge Unionists to come out and vote, and for deputy First Minister McGuinness to suggest that creating joint First Ministers posts was a viable option.

In reality, the last thing Sinn Féin needs is for a low poll from Unionists on 5 May. That low poll will suggest massive tactical voting by Protestants for Emperor Robbo's DUP, thereby preventing the Shinners from claiming the Stormont top dog slot.

Unionism is so heavily divided that a huge turnout by Unionists will see votes fairly evenly spread across the three main parties – the DUP, Ulster Unionists and wee Jimmy Allister's Traditional Unionists.

Add in the independent Unionists, and right-wing nuts from UKIP and the BNP along with the pro-Union faction in Alliance, and McGuinness is well on his way to toppling Robbo as First Minister.

And if there's one red flag aure to fire up the Unionist bull, it's top Shinners lecturing Prods on how to vote.

The Unionist family is at its worst level of fragmentation since Paisley senior launched his fanatically anti-power sharing Protestant Unionist movement in the late 1960s.

The Ulster Unionists are in open civil war – again! The DUP has been snubbed by the diehards in the Bible-bashing Free Presbyterian Church, and the TUV has nothing to offer the North other than its 'kick the DUP in the balls at every turn' agenda.

If the Shinners are smart, they will up the ante in Unionism by boasting how well Sinn Féin can work with Robbo's DUP.

Imagine the catastrophe for the Unionist family if Alliance could repeat Naomi Long's feat in East Belfast by preventing Robbo from retaining his MLA's seat?

Alliance will be hoping for enough MLAs to nudge the warring UUP out of the fourth place spot in the Executive – a victory which will spark yet another leadership battle within Ulster Unionism.

And if East Belfast voters dump Robbo from the Assembly, the DUP will face its own leadership fight between its fundamentalist traditionalists who remain deeply suspicious of Sinn Féin, and the new look liberals who would sup soup with satan himself to keep the party in power.

If Robbo falls, my dosh is on North Belfast MP Nigel Dodds to grab the reigns. The DUP's worries could be increased if the rival UUP limps back with only 14 MLAs, along with a couple of Allister fans and a batch of independent Unionists.

Even if that totals up to less than 20 seats – these are seats not won by the DUP, which needs to remain as the top Stormont party to retain the First Minister's post.

But the Shinners' short-term gain of snatching First Minister could become republicans' long-term loss.

For four decades, the Unionist family has bathed in the luxury of internal gutting matches.

Maybe the bitter medicine to finally bring Unionist unity is a four-year dose of McGuinness as First Minister?

Could Sinn Féin's point-scoring appeals to Protestants actually start the process which leads to the creation of a single Unionist Party once again?

Sinn Féin is fitting very snugly into its role as a respectable middle class Catholic movement.

Okay, it's still five weeks of hard electioneering until the 5 May showdown. The result will still be a Sinn Féin/DUP coalition. Only the final numbers remain to be decided.

But one key fly in the Stormont ointment has got to be eliminated – will the combined Unionist family wreck the Executive and refuse to work the Assembly if Sinn Féin wins the election?

April 7, 2011
________________

This article appeared in the April 4, 2011 edition of the Irish Daily Star.

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