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ireland, irish, ulster, ireland, irish, ulster, Sinn Féin, Irish America

Battle Lines

(John Coulter, Irish Daily Star)

The Star's Northern Political Columnist John Coulter predicts a return of the current DUP/Sinn Féin Stormont government, with the SDLP and UUP forming a new opposition after the 5 May poll.

The DUP and Sinn Féin will remain the two largest Assembly parties, with current First Minister Peter Robinson remaining in post with a four-seat majority over his deputy First Minister, Martin McGuinness of Sinn Féin.

However, the Ulster Unionists will slip from third largest party to fourth, one seat behind the SDLP.

There will also be small gains for Alliance, Independent MLAs and the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice.

The full 108 seat tally for the next four-year Assembly term across the North's 18 constituencies should read: DUP 33, Sinn Féin 29, SDLP 16, UUP 15, Alliance 8, Independents 4, TUV 2 and Greens 1.

This could enable the SDLP and UUP along with Jim Allister's TUV to establish a formal Opposition.

With the UUP failing to get 20 seats barrier, there may be another leadership bid by liberals spearheaded by Basil McCrea against current boss Tom Elliott.

However, the UUP could be back in third if Independents Alan McFarland, David McClarty and Dawn Purvis decided to take the party whip.

Here's a review of the constituencies along with Coulter's Call. Each of the 18 constituencies will elect six MLAs.

North Belfast. While DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds is not running, Culture Minister Nelson McCausland is. Expect a tight three-way battle for the sixth seat between the DUP, Alliance and Sinn Féin.
Coulter's Call: 2 DUP, 2 Sinn Féin, 1 SDLP and 1 UUP.

South Belfast. This mainly middle class and evenly religious split area will remain unchanged. Turnout could affect the order of MLAs elected.
Coulter's Call: 2 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 DUP, I UUP and 1 Sinn Féin.

East Belfast. Alliance will be looking to build on clinching the Westminster seat from Peter Robinson by taking a second seat. Independent Dawn Purvis will hold her seat with Ulster Unionist Michael Copeland back for the UUP.
Coulter's Call: 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 Independent and 1 UUP.

West Belfast. No Sinn Féin President Gerry Adams but, boundary changes and a split unionist vote will see all six seats go green.
Coulter's Call: 5 Sinn Féin and 1 SDLP.

North Antrim. No Paisleys or a Coulter on the ballot paper could see Sinn Féin top the poll with TUV boss Jim Allister gaining a seat, with the SDLP's Declan O'Loan losing because of boundary changes.
Coulter's Call: 3 DUP, 1 UUP, I TUV and 1 Sinn Féin.

South Antrim. The staunchly unionist constituency will see massive infighting with a big scrap for the sixth seat between the DUP and TUV. Alliance's Justice Minister and party boss David Ford should comfortably retain his seat.
Coulter's Call: 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 SDLP and 1 Sinn Féin.

East Antrim. Boundary changes will see the SDLP gain a seat, but the strong DUP team will see the party capture half the seats, including Finance Minister Sammy Wilson and former Carrick Mayor David Hilditch.
Coulter's Call: 3 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance and 1 UUP.

East Derry. Independent MLA David McClarty will push out his former colleagues in the UUP.A strong DUP team headed by veteran Gregory Campbell will take half the seats.
Coulter's Call: 1 Independent, 1 Sinn Féin, 1 SDLP and 3 DUP.

Foyle. The lack of 'big party guns' in this SDLP stronghold could see socialist Eamonn McCann sneak the sixth seat. Assembly Speaker William Hay should hold his DUP seat with no UUP runner.
Coulter's Call: 1 DUP, 2 Sinn Féin, 2 SDLP and 1 Independent.

West Tyrone. With no Independent MLA expected to be returned, the UUP can snatch the sixth seat in this Sinn Féin stronghold.
Coulter's Call: 3 Sinn Féin, 1 UUP and 2 DUP.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone. Unionist infighting will see Sinn Féin take half the seats in this 'big name' area featuring Executive Ministers Arlene Foster (DUP) and Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin) along with UUP boss Tom Elliott.
Coulter's Call: 3 Sinn Féin, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP and 1 UUP.

Newry and Armagh. No change expected as all six MLAs are defending their seats. Voter turnout will decide the order of election in this Sinn Féin stronghold headed by Executive Ministers Conor Murphy and Danny Kennedy.
Coulter's Call: 3 Sinn Féin, 1 UUP, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP.

Lagan Valley. Boundary changes will see Sinn Féin lose its seat, sparking vicious unionist feuding for that sixth seat. All eyes will also be on the performance of potential UUP leadership contender Basil McCrea.
Coulter's Call: 3 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP and 1 TUV.

Strangford. With no Iris Robinson, the DUP is expected to lose a seat to television personality Mike Nesbitt – a hot tip to take on McCrea for the UUP leadership should Elliott be toppled.
Coulter's Call: 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance.

Upper Bann. This traditionally safe unionist region is witnessing so much unionist infighting, Sinn Féin will snatch a second seat.
Coulter's Call: 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 2 Sinn Féin and 1 SDLP.

North Down. A region which usually goes against the grain in Northern politics and will probably return five different parties. Independent Alan McFarland likely to hold his seat.
Coulter's Call: 2 DUP, 1 Independent, 1 Alliance, 1 Green and 1 UUP.

South Down. Boundary changes will put UUP deputy leader John McCallister in serious danger in what has become an SDLP stronghold. Main nationalist cat fight will see SDLP boss Margaret Ritchie go head to head with Sinn Féin Education Minister Caitriona Ruane.
Coulter's Call: 3 SDLP, 2 Sinn Féin and 1 DUP.

Mid Ulster. Sinn Féin stronghold of deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness and should easily see republicans hold half the seats.
Coulter's Call: 3 Sinn Féin, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP and 1 UUP.

May 5, 2011
________________

This article appeared in the May 4, 2011 edition of the Irish Daily Star.

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