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ireland, irish, ulster, ireland, irish, ulster, Sinn Féin, Irish America

Flanagan holds North's ace card

(John Coulter, Irish Daily Star)

Dublin needs to bring back its Maryfield Secretariat if the Southern government genuinely wants to save the North's rapidly crumbling Assembly.

This means the Dail's Foreign Affairs boss Charlie Flanagan bears the massive weight of the hand of history on his shoulders as he now holds the ace card which can seal the fate of the latest round of peace talks in the North to settle the thorny issues of flags, parading and the past.

In spite of massive borrowing from the Brits, unionist and nationalist sources privately agree Stormont will fall at the earliest by Halloween, the longest in the New Year.

The crisis has arisen because the power-sharing Executive in Belfast cannot agree to implement the contentious welfare reform cuts – similar to the austerity cuts which the Republic had to endure in the wake of the multi-million euro bailout from the European Union.

The immediate effect of a Stormont collapse will see the return of Direct Rule from Westminster; a move which would suit Robbo's DUP.

The Southern government and British government will participate in this latest round of peace talks, making Minister Flanagan a key player.

Ironically, the conclusion of these peace talks in 2015 will coincide with the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Anglo-Irish agreement at Hillsborough in Co Down in November 1985 between the then Taoiseach Garret FitzGerald and then British Prime Minister Maggie Thatcher.

For nationalism, and the Republic in particular, the Agreement's greatest achievement was the setting up of the Maryfield Secretariat, staffed by Southern civil servants.

It gave the South its first major say in the running of Northern affairs since partition in the early 1920s.

The current peace process from 1998 established successful bodies, such as the North South Ministerial Council, which involves ministers from Dublin and Belfast.

But their power could wane substantially if Stormont is suspended, even if the British Irish Intergovernmental Conference is triggered with that suspension.

While political jungle drums have been hammering out the message not 'if' but 'when' Stormont falls, rumours abound when the Northern Assembly may be reconvened following a fresh election.

Optimists say the peace talks could get an agreement to put before the electorate in time for next May's Westminster General Election with two polls on the same day.

Pessimists maintain if there is no agreement, the North will have to endure the cuts imposed by London's Direct Rule for up to five years.

The South should not dismiss the Stormont crisis as a Northern-only meltdown. If the British Government is forced to implement the hard-hitting welfare reform cuts, austerity could see hundreds – if not thousands – of Northern families move across the border to the Republic, which economically, is slowly but steadily recovering from its drastic austerity cuts.

This is why Minister Flanagan must get a Maryfield-style secretariat reformed as soon as possible to reduce the effects of Northern austerity on the Republic, and also to ensure the current Dublin government has a major input into any final agreement in the negotiations.

Minister Flanagan must ensure the Dáil has a permanent voice in Northern affairs and in these talks. A new Maryfield may well be that forum.

But he must play his ace card soon otherwise the Westminster establishment will implement its own solution with Dublin simply forced to 'like it or lump it'.

October 21, 2014
________________

This article appeared in the October 20, 2014 edition of the Irish Daily Star.

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