The first week of campaigning is almost over and the posters are hardly on the lampposts
yet, but, even though I have said this before – many times before over
the years – this may well be the most significant elections in the
history of the Six Counties.
There have been many significant events in the history of
elections here – Bernadette Devlin becoming MP for Mid-Ulster, Bobby
Sands for Fermanagh and South Tyrone, the general rise of Sinn Féin
over the years – but this may be the most significant set of elections
ever.
Naturally, the poll on the Nationalist side is one thing and the
poll on the Unionist another but, again for virtually the first time
ever, the dog fight on the Unionist side may even equal that on our
side this time around as a mind-blowing spectator sport.
I was nearly sure that the DUP would have been prepared to enter
into a gentlemen's agreement with their UUP colleagues in the
constituencies of Fermanagh/ South Tyrone and Upper Bann, an
arrangement that would have guaranteed Bobby Sands' seat for Arlene
Foster of the DUP in return for UUP David Trimble getting a relatively
free run to hold on to what he has.
No chance, though. The DUP are out to cream the UUP and they don't
care if even Sinn Féin get a bit of an advantage on the way.
It's not that the two parties are miles apart ideologically, it's
just that the position of leader will be up for grabs soon and Peter
Robinson wants it.
So he is doing everything he possibly can to ensure that the DUP
have their best election ever, that they finish up head and shoulders
above their rivals, and that everyone knows which electoral genius was
behind it all.
Another one to watch is the mano a mano in south Antrim between
the UUP's invisible man David Burnside, and the DUP's singin' padre
Willie McCrea. Willie took the seat in the by-election in September
2000 following the death of the UUP's Clifford Forsythe.
However, nine months later he was clipped in the general election
by only a thousand votes. I'd bet you a belt of the Bible that the
warblin' holy man makes it in again this time around.
Peter Robinson will, no doubt, cast an inquisitive eye north east
from time to time, but his prize would be the scalp of the UUP leader.
Trimble held off the challenge of the DUP's David Simpson by only 2,000
votes last time, so no wonder Peter the Great is gleaming and glowing.
Meanwhile, over on the other side of the fence, the only question
is how far will the SDLP fall. They have three seats at present but are
unlikely to be able to hold Newry and South Armagh where Conor Murphy
of Sinn Féin has been stalking the SDLP's Séamas Mallon for years.
Mallon is gone and I don't think my old friend and comrade Doimnic Ó Brolcháin is up to the job.
Doimnic is being pressganed now because the SDLP are running out of personnel as quickly as ideas and imagination.
Gerry A will keep West Belfast or else there is no Santa Claus, and Martin and Pat are probably safe up the country.
Michelle Gildernew had a majority of only 53 blooming votes four
years ago but with no inter-Unionist co-operation to banjax her efforts
she will probably make it back.
Anyway, my spies down there tell me that the Shinners have
managed to register up to a thousand new voters since the start of this
year, so that should take care of that.
How many is that – one, two, three, four, five. One more than they hold at present.
I thought I was going out of my mind recently because I was as sure
to God that Eddie McGrady had decided not to stand this time. Retire, I
mean. And I thought that my other good friend Caitríona Ruane would be
in with a shout, a hell of a shout, for his seat.
Then didn't the Grand Old Man change his mind without letting me
know in advance and I was in a state of chassis when I heard his name
being mentioned, a right state of chassis, I don't mind telling you.
So Caitríona has her hands full in South Down, and I just can't see her making the cut this time. This time...
Which leaves Derry. Foyle, I mean. John Hume's old seat. Mark
Durkan versus Mitchel McLaughlin. This is where the real craic will be
this election, this is where history might well be made.
Sinn Féin don't like putting too much emphasis on one constituency
and the party movers and shakers like to imply that it's all got to do
with the local organisation, really.
But they would love to get their mitts on John Hume's old seat at Foyle. God, but they would love it.
Durkan needs to keep it to hold on to the leadership of the party,
and the SDLP need to hold it just to avoid melt down. But the Shinners
can smell it. Smell it.
And damn it, I think they'll bloody well win it.
So them thare's my perdickshins, whaddya think. More election fever next week.
