Another year begins with Northern Ireland still stuck – unsurprisingly – in political limbo.
Thanks to the apparent IRA robbery of the Northern Bank, politics is in cold storage this winter, and the thaw may not even come this year.
It is a depressing situation, and many like myself have felt both anger and disappointment at the thought of the Assembly not being restored soon while direct rule by the remote control ministers from Westminster continues.
Now we are stuck in a situation where even the Irish and British Governments seem unsure about where to go.
In a sense, we are lucky this is all we have to worry about. Look at the tragedy in those countries where the Indian Ocean tsunami hit, or the daily death toll in Iraq – suddenly we seem better off already, and our petty differences seem almost pathetic in comparison.
Northern Ireland is no longer at the centre of world attention. It is time we got on with the job. But sadly, that cannot happen at present, because an inclusive government in Northern Ireland means that democratic parties are still waiting for the republican movement to commit itself to completely peaceful and democratic means.
Simply put, that means ending all paramilitary and criminal activity. The Assembly was very much based on the parties in the Executive trusting and having confidence in each other. When trust is destroyed, it means that the whole thing falls apart and we enter another crisis.
Despite the problems that the IRA and unionists have caused, Alliance continues to seek a way forward. Throughout the talks over the past year, Alliance worked hard to bridge the gaps between the DUP and Sinn Féin and to create the space for movement.
At the moment, Sinn Féin is politically isolated, with few friends. It is difficult to see how people who feel conned by Sinn Féin's words while the IRA plotted a robbery will ever accept anything they say at face value again.
While there is no sign of an end to IRA paramilitary and criminal activity – which continued with the shooting of a man through the hands in South Belfast recently – democratic parties still need to demonstrate that politics, not violence, works.
The creation of a voluntary 'coalition of the willing' would allow those parties that wish to move ahead and restore democratic and accountable power-sharing government to do so.
It is not like a mandatory or enforced coalition government which is inclusive and which can be brought down every time the IRA decides to rob a bank or engage in other criminal activity.
Voluntary coalition would be a much more stable form of government that could survive a crisis like the Northern Bank heist. The idea of a coalition is not to exclude Sinn Féin, but to provide for more coherent and effective cross-community government. It is entirely possible for Sinn Féin to be part of such arrangements, as long as it can meet the same standards of democracy, human rights and the rule of law as other parties.
However, if Sinn Féin is not prepared to do so, it removes the republican veto and allows other parties to move forward. Unless there is a real commitment to human rights and the rule of law by Sinn Féin, and that is borne out in word and deed by the mainstream republican movement, they are only excluding themselves.
Even some members of the SDLP are now so frustrated by the IRA's ongoing threat to the peace process that they do not want their party to rule out exclusion. This major shift clearly illustrates that there are some nationalists who want the IRA to step out of the whole equation, or let democrats get on with the job.
Although the SDLP leader appears to have determined that there will be an all-inclusive Executive or nothing (and nothing seems favourite at present), there are clear signs that the merits of a voluntary coalition have attractions for some leading members of that party, as well as Alliance and many unionists.
Voluntary coalition is how governments are formed, at regional and national level, throughout Europe. The Dáil and the Scottish Parliament are good examples of stable coalition governments. It would provide more efficient, effective and cohesive government. It would encourage greater co-operation among parties, and better promote the concept of all parties working for the common good, rather than simply for narrow interests.
Regrettably, the SDLP's official position is to take pressure off Sinn Féin by ruling out consideration of a voluntary coalition.
It is demanding that the British and Irish Governments face down the DUP and Sinn Féin, but does not seem prepared to back up tough rhetoric with any action.
The SDLP talks of not giving either the DUP or Sinn Féin a veto, but – by insisting that no political progress can take place on anything other than a fully inclusive basis – it does just that.
There seems to be a certain reluctance on the part of the British government to challenge Sinn Féin. The Irish Government is more pro-active, perhaps due to electoral considerations, but Tony Blair appears to have decided to do nothing to upset Sinn Féin, regardless of the consequences for the rest of this community.
Perhaps Gerry Adams' threat that republicans should be prepared to 'resist' any efforts at exclusion is preying on his mind.
