In the past week, the British government has signalled its intention to pursue a
toughening security line which could have profound implications for the
peace process in the North.
After meeting the Minister of Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern in
Dublin last Monday afternoon, British Secretary of State Paul Murphy
said that "the world has changed in terms of how we deal with the
process now".
And during Northern Ireland Question Time at Westminster last
Wednesday, Mr Murphy stated that "the central issue" in the North is
crime.
"We have to solve that in order for an inclusive Executive to be established," he added.
Mr Murphy's stance has received broad support from the Irish
government. However, questions are now being raised in the nationalist
and republican community over the future direction of British policy in
the North, which some fear is reverting to an old-style 'security
solution' approach.
Last night informed sources expressed concern that the
British government is considering 'specifying' the IRA. This move would
facilitate a person being charged with membership of the organisation
based solely on the evidence of a senior PSNI member, thereby making
the arrest and detention of republicans easier – both legally and
politically.
At present, although membership of the IRA is unlawful, a
criminal charge cannot be brought by the PSNI because the organisation
is not 'specified'. Following the 1998 Omagh bombing the British
government rushed a battery of draconian legal powers through the
Westminster Parliament.
One of the these powers made it possible for a senior PSNI
member – ranked Chief Superintendent or higher – to testify in the
North that, in his or her 'opinion', an accused person is a member of
an illegal organisation.
However attempts to pursue IRA membership charges since the
new law was introduced have been unsuccessful, as evidenced by the case
against the so-called 'Kelly's Cellars Four' last year.
On Friday, February 20, 2004, four Belfast men were arrested
by the PSNI after an incident at Kelly's Cellars bar in Belfast city
centre. The next morning, the PSNI Chief Constable Hugh Orde spoke to
the media and attributed the incident to the IRA.
"The activity last night was Provisional IRA activity, I'm clear on that," said Mr Orde.
None of the four men had – at that stage – been charged with
any criminal offence, although they were then accused, inter alia, of
membership of the IRA.
Significantly, however, the membership charges were withdrawn
by a Crown lawyer at Belfast Magistrates Court the following Monday
(February 23).
>Despite the decision of the PSNI to pursue the IRA
membership charges, the Crown could not proceed because the British
government had not 'specified' the organisation – an act that involves
the Secretary of State simply signing an Order.
Within days the British and Irish governments met and
required an early report from the Independent Monitoring Commission
which later repeated the PSNI's decision to blame the IRA over the
incident. All of this activity occurred in the run-up to crucial
European elections across the island, including local government
elections in the South.
Twelve months later similar issues are dogging the peace
process. Following last month's Northern Bank robbery, the PSNI Chief
Constable Hugh Orde made a public statement on Friday, January 7, 2005,
in which he said, "in my opinion, the Provisional IRA were responsible
for this crime".
During the intervening Christmas holiday period there were a
series of high-profile raids on homes and businesses in North and West
Belfast.
Certain sections of the media were widely briefed and two of
the people targeted were subsequently named, with allegations about
their backgrounds trailed through the papers. Aspects
of these raids are now subject to complaints being lodged with the
Ombudsman.
A number of other well-known republicans have since been the
focus of orchestrated media briefings which have sought to link them,
by name, with the Northern Bank robbery and with senior positions in
the IRA.
Interestingly, before Hugh Orde spoke on January 7, the
British Prime Minister Tony Blair brought forward his monthly press
conference by a week to Thursday, January 6, during which he implicitly
attacked Sinn Féin over the Northern Bank affair.
The next day, after Hugh Orde's press conference, it emerged
that the Secretary of State – who was in America – had already been
given a PSNI briefing.
In contrast to the ad-hoc reaction after the 'Kelly's Cellars
Four' affair, the strategic nature of the British government's response
to the Northern Bank robbery – including the Secretary of State's
presence as a 'point-man' in the United States when Hugh Orde fingered
the IRA – has contributed to nationalist and republican concerns that a
wider security agenda is now being pursued.
There are real fears that the British government's hardening
security policy will lead to the IRA being 'specified'. Three other
considerations are also relevant.
First, the PSNI is currently attempting to re-focus the
political spotlight on the alleged burglary at Castlereagh Special
Branch offices in March 2002 through the proposed extradition of Larry
Zaitschek from America. This commenced early in January with a quiet
and well-informed update on the case to one section of the media.
Subsequently Mr Zaitschek has voiced his own concerns about
the PSNI and DPP's ongoing handling of his case through a different
media outlet.
However, in a newspaper interview on Saturday, the PSNI has
for the first time formally stated that there are "linkages" between
the Castlereagh allegations and the Northern Bank robbery. Second,
well-informed media reports on Thursday claimed that the PSNI Special
Branch have compiled a list of individual republicans allegedly linked
to the Northern Bank robbery which is circulating among senior
government officials.
The same reports also stated that the IMC met in Belfast for
a number of days last week. Speculation now suggests that the IMC will
– as with the 'Kelly's Cellars Four' affair last year – bring forward
an early report, probably within the next fortnight, on the Northern
Bank robbery.
And third, key parliamentary elections are likely in the
North within just four months. In this context, the probability that
further developments in the Northern Bank affair will be dovetailed
with moves over the alleged burglary at Castlereagh – leading to a
pre-election offensive against leading republicans – cannot now be
discounted.
Nor can the prospect that the IMC will 'name names' (an
intention it has previously flagged up), around the same time as the
PSNI moves to make arrests.
Should any or all of this scenario play out under the
umbrella of the British administration's hardening security policy, and
with a nod and a wink from the Irish government, the outlook for the
peace process would be bleak.
