Something you should never do in farming or in elections – count chickens before they are hatched.
There has been a lot of talk about Sinn Féin doing well and the DUP putting the UUP out of business. But what would happen if the Sinn Féin voters thought, "Sure there's no need to vote because it's all in the bag"? That would be disastrous for Sinn Féin. Don't count chickens before hatching, seats are won by votes not by predictions.
And what would happen if UUP voters took offence at Paisley's insults? It was all right when Paisley insulted Irish citizens or members of the Catholic Church because the golden rule for selecting the next unionist leader has always been that apart from a very few who found their way into the Alliance Party or stayed quietly at home, the next leader would always be the one who insults most. The best insulter is the new leader, the old insulters of the herd become feeble, lose their sting, lag behind in the insulting stampede and their places are taken by younger bloods. So it was only a matter of time until Paisley would become undisputed leader, with younger, fitter members galloping, or slithering, up behind him, ready to take over leadership at the first sign that his grossness, insults and crudities were weakening.
But suppose, just suppose, that UUP voters now roused themselves from the near-fatal drowsiness created by years of despair-inspiring Trimbleism, and just suppose they took umbrage at Paisley's insults – and decided to fight back. Well, not fight back, because for unionists the chosen fight is an armed fight and we don't want that now, do we? But decided to vote back. To come out in droves to vote for somebody against Paisley who has insulted them for decades? That could mean the predictions proving false after all and Paisley might not come out on top of the heap. It is a question of the morale of the troops.
All kinds of things can happen in elections. The arousal of unionists – the 'decent' ones of course – and the apathy of the more decent – that is republicans and nationalists – could that happen? For some people, then, the election prayer will be, May the republicans come out to vote in droves and may the unionists come out, well, sort of half and half. Not enough to elect Mr Trimble, not enough to enable Paisley to be Moses, not enough to stop the unionists arguing among themselves from this until Doomsday while the rest of the people – really decent people – get on with the business of governing. In a normal society this would lead to necessary compromises and eventually to government by its permanent residents rather than by flown-in office temps. If London had the integrity and Dublin had the courage any election result could be useful. Those who are voted into power should have power, those who are voted into power but refuse to accept it should not be forced into government. It is as easy as that. If refusers entitled to have seats take them later, then in they go. London and Dublin have always had it too easy, they have never been forced to make that decision, that those we say are entitled to sit in government do so, while the refusers stand aside and consider their position.
And government goes on. And we see the beginning of the end of government by civil service departmental heads whose decisions are undisputed, unchallenged and unadvised and are rubber-stamped by temporary officials who want to get out as quickly and as profitably as they can.
Trouble is, of course, that the leader of most of the Protestant people of Ulster – yes, that is really true, Paisley is – will not share power and responsibility with fellow inhabitants of any piece of territory, British or Irish. He and those like him have for generations made it clear that they prefer no prosperity rather than shared prosperity, in other words they have been glad to immerse their own people – their own voters, their own co-religionists – in poverty and underdevelopment rather than create development in which all would share.
Of course, one must remember that when the Craigs and Wests and O'Neills and Faulkners and Paisleys were saying this, and making sure there would be no real economic development shared with anybody, they themselves had an income large enough to enable them to live in luxury. Craigavon was able to go on world cruises while his followers fought in the shipyards, West had his farmlands, O'Neill was a rent-receiving lord of the manor, Paisley had his income from this, that and the other. Whatever happened to their voters they were sitting pretty themselves and would never starve. Their followers could. And sometimes did .
They used to tell about Craigavon on one of his many cruises, the wife remarks to him as they stand on deck, 'Oh, look, James, look out there the gulls are all following us.' To which he is said to have replied, 'Dammit, my dear, that's bad, I thought we'd left all the gulls behind in Ulster fighting the Catholics.'
And so, as it was in the beginning...
