Hold the front page. The IRA has fully and finally decommissioned its terrorist arsenal and gone away. Republicans will from now on pursue their objectives through political means alone – democratically and peacefully. All criminal activity and gangsterism will stop and targeting, training, procurement and punishment beatings are now over. Armed struggle has been abandoned, the terror gone.
That is the proposition. This is what we are being asked to believe.
The trouble is, nobody in unionism really believes it.
This is the quandary the government need to get their heads around. There is no support within unionism for a power-sharing government that includes Sinn Féin for now. This is the settled view and it has been settled for a number of years.
Why is this the case?
Unionists have been disappointed by republicans on three occasions and are not currently prepared to accept another government-imposed settlement. They took a chance on the Agreement as a way of testing bona-fides. Republicans thought that the process could be all on their own terms and continued with their hokey-cokey approach of one foot in government, one foot still holding on to the IRA. This didn't wash.
Republicans would have it that unionists didn't sell the Agreement properly. This is not the case. We knew what we were selling. The problem was that government kept changing the description of the goods and republicans kept holding back vital pieces of the product before the finished article could be seen and properly inspected.
As a result, an entire swathe of public opinion is understandably dis-believing. Unionists are pro-devolution and want to see local control over local affairs, but if this means Sinn Féin in government then devolution will be rejected in the short to medium term. Unionists would rather embrace direct rule with all its faults and inherent dangers. This is not an ideal situation, but unfortunately it is reality.
The questions now, and they are very big questions, are: can unionists be persuaded to go into government with Sinn Féin, and how is the settled view of unionism going to be changed?
There is no doubt that this view must be changed if there is to be a settlement involving a devolved government as its cornerstone. Republicans need to understand that their go-slow strategy has failed them. They need to understand that slapping themselves on the back and telling themselves how wonderful they are and how we all need to get round the table again will not get them out of the hole that they have created. There is no trust. They need to wake up to that.
The governments also must face up to the fact that by facilitating the republicans go-slow strategy, they have also significantly contributed to this lack of trust. This mess, where apparent finality on decommissioning and IRA activity is greeted with disdain, is of their own making.
Unionism will not buy the words of Sinn Féin or their good intentions anymore until basic levels of trust are established.
I think it is fair to say that unionists will enter a devolved government when the trust is there. We are a long way away from that yet. In the meantime we will observe the republican movement's transition and we will respond on our terms and in our own time.
