Imagine a scenario where an IRA bomber and a British diplomat fly into a far eastern trouble spot, Zamboanga City on a mission to patch up a peace deal between the government and Islamic insurgents. As the men urge dialogue, the violence continues and bombers are rounded up in a security crackdown.
The British ambassador reveals that the bomber and the diplomat are intervening at his behest and that, as part of the same initiative, a former Downing Street chief security officer had met both the rebels and the government.
It could be the plot for a thriller or a farce, but it happened last week. Gerry Kelly and Jonathan Powell went on a diplomatic mission to meet the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, which has been waging a paramilitary campaign in the southern Philippines since the 1960s. Peter Beckingham, the British Ambassador, had earlier sent Robert Hannigan, a former head of information at the Northern Ireland Office and later Tony Blair's security adviser, to meet both sides.
In the past, news of senior republicans meeting foreign revolutionaries evoked images of gun running and bomb classes. Remember the case of the three republicans who are still wanted in Colombia for allegedly training the terrorist group Farc in IRA bombing methods, and who were on a mission brokered by Eta, the Basque separatist group?
The present dispensation makes a pleasant change from what went before. Northern Ireland, possibly the most researched and reported civil conflict in history, is fast becoming a conflict-resolution laboratory. The north is regarded by the rest of the world as a model of how to break down barriers and build peace.
That was the sort of talk at a reception held by the US Consulate in Belfast earlier this month. The reception was to honour Paula Dobriansky, a White House under secretary of state for democracy and global affairs, who has been a special envoy to Northern Ireland. It was her last visit in her official capacity. Dobriansky was a political appointee of the Bush administratin, and won't be back.
Her view is that there is no one-size-fits-all answer to global conflicts but, that common sense proviso aside, she predicts that future US administrations will promote Northern Ireland as a place worth studying by societies in conflict. Dobriansky is a leading neo-con pundit with a hard line on the "war on terror". If that is what she thinks, we can expect a greater emphasis on the lessons of Northern Ireland from an Obama White House. The incoming American president may not have much of a personal track record on Ireland, but he is surrounded by people who do.
Hilary Clinton, who will replace Condoleeza Rice as secretary of state in charge of foreign affairs, knows Ireland well and stressed her role in the peace process during her campaign for the Democratic nomination. Joe Biden, the incoming vice-president, also has a strong interest, and Obama has established a panel of Irish American politicians to keep him briefed on the situation. From what we know of Obama, he will seek, where possible, to solve conflicts using soft power – trade and diplomacy – in preference to military intervention. George Bush's greatest achievement was to prevent any further terrorist attacks within the US after 9/11. The "war on terror", however, which painted the world in binary terms with an "axis of evil" and forces of light, has exposed the limits of American power in the 21st century. Although America is still, by a long way, the most powerful nation on earth, Bush's policy of war on several fronts showed the dangers of overstretch.
Obama isn't so keen to take on all comers. His campaign website argues that "the United States is trapped by the Bush-Cheney approach to diplomacy that refuses to talk to leaders we don't like. Not talking doesn't make us look tough – it makes us look arrogant, it denies us opportunities to make progress, and it makes it harder for America to rally international support for our leadership. Obama is willing to meet with the leaders of all nations, friend and foe."
This was echoed in the recent statement by David Milliband, the British Foreign Secretary, that the "war on terror" had been a mistake. Clearly it is the shape of things to come.
Obama is no pushover. He is more than willing to deploy the military where he thinks it necessary to maximise his leverage. He may be pledged to wind up the Iraq conflict but that is partly in order to devote more effort to Afghanistan, a war which he has said "must be won". He has also stated that he is prepared to bomb Pakistan, if necessary without the approval of the Pakistani government, if that is what it takes to get at al Qaeda.
Overall Obama looks to a more European style foreign policy than Bush, keeping force as a deterrent while depending, where possible, on alliances and agreements to promote US policies and interests in the world. Obama has Kenyan roots and he may remember the African proverb which Theodore Roosevelt used: "Speak softly and carry a big stick..."
It's rather like the British and Irish tactics in ending the Troubles. There was never any doubt that militarily both governments had the upper hand, the stability of neither state was threatened. Instead of wading in like Israel in Gaza, the conflict was contained, and the reality of the situation allowed to sink in to republican thinking. All the time, back-channel diplomacy was offering an end to the conflict without a massive loss of life.
Republican resolve was worn down after trust had been built up in small ways. For instance when Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness went to London for talks in the 1970s, they were allowed to return to the IRA campaign and not shot or imprisoned. It showed that, potentially and with care, the enemy's word might be trusted in talks.
Kelly and Powell told the Filipinos that the "peace process is always thorny and tricky, but it must be pursued without let-up until a final peace agreement is forged." They were both singing from the same hymn sheet and Bertie Ahern, who stressed the importance of sticking with talks whatever the frustrations, would have said the same thing. Kelly emphasised the importance of maintaining back-channels even when formal talks were suspended. "At times, confusion erupts during the peace process, but talks must be pursued, bilaterally or multilaterally to bring out all the issues," he told a Manila newspaper.
The same message is being beamed across the world by peace process veterans of all shades. Martin McGuinness, Chris MacCabe, a former British official in Northern Ireland, and Paul Murphy, a former secretary of state in Belfast, have shuttled between the Tamil Tigers and the Sri Lankan government for years. There have been many initiatives involving Northern Ireland personnel in Iraq, Palestine, the Basque Country, Thailand and East Timor, where the Irish government has made Dame Nuala O'Loan, the former Northern Ireland police pmbudsman, its special envoy.
Others with peace-process experience have been selected to mediate in foreign conflicts. Tony Blair's role in helping to end the conflict in Northern Ireland without catastrophic loss of life, rather than his support for the invasion of Iraq, is what led to his appointment as special envoy to the Middle East.
After a century in which ethnic disputes degenerated into genocide, Northern Ireland is an example where, despite terrible suffering over more than a generation, society found a way to live reasonably comfortably with its differences. A key factor in avoiding a worse outcome was the engagement of international participants such as America, the EU and South Africa which offered help, advice and support at key moments.
That is a lesson which the Obama White House is likely to take very much to heart as it seeks a way to resolve conflicts which will cost the world less in terms of both blood and gold.
