Between now and the Irish general election due on March 11 we can expect plenty of
footage of Gerry Adams, Sinn Féin's candidate in Louth, being asked whether he was
ever in the IRA and what he knew about the Northern Bank robbery. His record in
government in Northern Ireland, which is none too hot, might be a more fruitful line
of inquiry but his alleged IRA membership is more fun.
WikiLeaks reminded us that Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour all have the drop on
Adams from their time in government. American diplomats reported back to Washington
that the Department of Justice had "rock solid" evidence that Adams was part of the
IRA's "military command" and that he knew about plans to rob the Northern Bank in
December 2004.
James Kenny, the US ambassador in Dublin at the time, reported that Sinn Féin was
believed to have profited from the heist. In intelligence speak, "rock solid
evidence" generally involves bugged conversations, documentary evidence or
disclosures from high-grade informants.
During the peace process, when Adams's unique talents were needed to coax the IRA,
everyone was gentlemanly about this sort of thing. As justice minister, Michael
McDowell occasionally pointed a well-informed finger in Sinn Féin's direction.
On another occasion, the normally unflappable Bertie Ahern wondered "what kind of
eejits do people take us for?" after hearing Adams and Martin McGuinness deny all
knowledge of IRA criminality.
There was a reluctance to strike too hard a blow while Sinn Féin was clutching the
peace process to its breast, however. Now that decommissioning has been accomplished
and Adams has come south looking for votes, and is presenting Sinn Féin as the clean
party, the gloves may well come off. The Sinn Féin president can hardly expect
Fianna Fáil to turn the other cheek if he launches one of his customary tirades
against political corruption and cronyism.
The media, too, is bound to harp on about the disappearance of Jean McConville, the
widow who was abducted and murdered by the IRA in Adams's former West Belfast
constituency and secretly buried in Louth, where he is now standing. Accusations by
Brendan Hughes, a close friend, that Adams was involved have been broadcast on RTE,
apparently without any legal action being taken.
Of course, Adams will deny all these allegations, but no politician likes being
asked questions about robbery and murder when he is electioneering. Besides, the
number of people who are prepared to stand beside him as he issues denials is
falling. When McGuinness was asked on the Late Late Show whether Adams was ever in
the IRA, he said he wouldn't discuss who was a member and who was not.
Sinn Féin voters in West Belfast rather admire Adams's ability to maintain that
black is white under hostile questioning. It remains to be seen if voters in Louth
feel the same way. Still, it would be a surprise if he failed to hold Sinn Féin's
seat, especially as the current TD, Arthur Morgan, admits to being a former IRA
member. Dermot Ahern, the minister for justice, is standing aside and Sinn Féin is
expected to profit from a probable meltdown in Fianna Fáil support. Adams may not
top the poll in Louth, however. That honour could fall to Fergus O'Dowd of Fine
Gael.
It looks like the perfect election for Adams to move south. Sinn Féin's vote is
bound to go up, and he is bound to take some of the credit. The economy is in a
slump and, since his party hasn't been in office since the early 1920s, Sinn Féin
can hardly be blamed. The party has no record to defend, and a national organisation
to canvass. With five seats, it needs only two more to get speaking rights as an
opposition party, instead of having to form a technical group with others. The
wilder predictions are that it could get 14 or 15 seats, but seven would be enough
and 10 looks possible.
The calibre of the new intake is also likely to be good. Pearse Doherty, who won the
Donegal South West by-election last year, is just the sort of able young candidate
most political parties are seeking. Pádraig MacLochlainn in Donegal North East
narrowly missed the last seat in 2007 and is likely to win this time. Seán Crowe
looks good to win back his former seat in Dublin South West. If, as seems likely,
Mary Lou McDonald's day eventually comes in Dublin Central, it will be a
particularly bitter blow in Bertie Ahern's back yard. That would bring the party's
tally to eight. Dessie Ellis in Dublin North West and one other – perhaps in
Waterford or Kerry South – could make it 10.
Sinn Féin is not good at getting transfers, so its representation is likely to lag
behind its share of the vote, which was 14% in the most recent poll. All the other
parties rule them out as coalition partners, which is probably a good thing for Sinn
Féin, as it isn't ready for government and would suffer heavily if it was a junior
partner in an era of cutbacks. The party would risk suffering the same fate as the
Progressive Democrats and the Greens.
Far better, from a party-building point of view, to be vocal in opposition with an
opportunity to knock spots off a coalition between Labour and Fine Gael. That way,
the deputies can spend the next four years trying to strip left-wing support from
Eamon Gilmore's Labour, which will probably tack towards the centre in a coalition
with Fine Gael.
Adams, however, is unlikely to shine in the Dáil. His style of politics was honed in
conspiracy and negotiation with the British and Irish governments. He is a patient,
philosophical man who plays his cards slowly. He is good at resisting pressure and
sitting tight. These qualities are not suited to the cut and thrust of democratic
politics. At 62, Adams is an old dog who shows no signs of learning new tricks.
In Stormont he is seen as an obstructionist; ponderous and grave when urgency is
required. His focus on the big picture and overall objectives – a perspective that
could have been gained as an IRA strategist, if he had ever been a member – makes
him a poor parliamentary tactician and weak on detail. RTE viewers will recall how
badly he performed in the leaders' debate in 2007, when he shied from fine-grain
questions and expounded on generalities.
Northern political colleagues say McGuinness has a flash of temper, but is easier to
deal with. Adams was, for instance, blamed for the Sinn Féin policy of boycotting
the Stormont executive in a vain attempt to pressurise Peter Robinson to move
quickly on devolution of policing and justice. McGuinness sorted that out.
Adams's appetite for stand-offs was just about sustainable under a compulsory
coalition in a devolved assembly. In Stormont, nobody had the option of pulling out
of government and forcing an election. If all went awry, the British, who supply the
money, could always step in.
In a sovereign parliament this style of politics would be a nightmare for coalition
partners. That is why the best place for Sinn Féin TDs in the next Dáil is on the
opposition benches – at least, as long as they are led by Adams.
