Gerry Adams's worst media moment last week came not on RTE or LMFM, though they were bad enough, but on the BBC.
The southern radio stations had asked him about big-ticket economic issues, how to deal with the deficit and so on, and the Sinn Féin president's answers had been shaky. He talked of burning the bankers and negotiating with bond markets for a better rate on loans.
So bad were his answers that Fianna Fáil issued some as press releases. They pointed out you can't negotiate with the markets, which consist of people buying debt competitively day to day. If you default before going to the markets, as Adams suggests, then they will charge you credit-card rates of interest because of the risk that you may do the same with any new loans.
Adams proposed rejecting the EU/IMF bailout without any attempt at renegotiation, even though Sinn Féin voted for the bank guarantee that led to it. His economic policies are riddled with contradictions but Sinn Féin can always point out that Fianna Fáil didn't do so well running the economy. That may strike a chord with voters for whom the Celtic tiger years were a period of rising prices, especially for housing. These people now feel that they are taking wage cuts and reduced services to pay bills that others ran up.
Talk of soaking the bankers and capital markets strikes a chord of frustration and anger, and Adams has always been weak on detail but at home with generalities. "If you want to know what our core principles are then read our mission statement – the 1916 Proclamation," he told University Times, as he pledged generous increases in funding for third-level education.
The level of ignorance that Adams displayed on BBC Northern Ireland will cut closer to the bone with hard-pressed families, however. The station doorstepped him in Dundalk and after a few warm-up questions asked him what the southern rate of child benefit was. He hadn't a clue, although Sinn Féin have been campaigning to reverse the cuts introduced in last December's budget.
A little later, Adams looked blank when asked whether he knew what the Irish Vat rate was. "No, I don't," he replied. It's 21% and is one of the main drivers of crossborder shopping that has hit Dundalk traders hard and caused job losses in the border counties, where Sinn Féin hopes to do well in next month's general election.
Such blind spots make Adams look like a well-heeled 62-year-old Belfast gent who used to have a caravan in Cooley and would like a permanent base in the area. In reality he plans to keep his home in west Belfast, where his Dáil euro salary will go further.
Any more gaffes are bound to damage Adams's vote. Yet he'll probably be elected comfortably, thanks in part to the support of other northern blow-ins. Droves of republicans made their homes in Dundalk during the Troubles and, despite teething problems, they are now well integrated. Austin Currie, a former Tyrone SDLP member, got elected in Dublin West in 1989 despite being unable to name three streets in the constituency.
Adams keeps his eye on the big picture and wasn't joking when he cited the 1916 declaration. Now that he has escaped the cloying embrace of the Mother of Parliaments in Westminster – albeit by having the unwanted title of Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead thrust on him by the Crown – he hopes to raise Irish unity in the Dáil. Sinn Féin has long aspired to be in government north and south of the border simultaneously. This would allow them to operate cross-border bodies from both sides and negotiate with the British government as equals, telling supporters that their party embodied the unity of Ireland. A role in the Irish government seems beyond their reach for now but even greater prominence in opposition could have a knock-on effect in the Stormont and local council elections in May.
Any pre-election prospect of Sinn Féin gains would help the DUP take more votes from the UUP. That's because, under Stormont rules, the largest party appoints the first minister and the thought of Martin McGuinness getting the post will alarm unionist voters. The DUP has already wondered what would happen if the Queen came to Northern Ireland and was either snubbed by a Sinn Féin first minister or, worse, insulted by one at a garden party. The UUP is playing into the DUP's hands by calling for changes in the law to prevent this. It is also forming unionist pacts in areas such as North and West Belfast where Sinn Féin gains look likely.
So an increased Sinn Féin vote in the south could have a polarising effect in the north. It could help push the province back towards the one big unionist/one big nationalist party model that applied for most of its history.
A Sinn Féin resurgence would also increase the relevance of northern politics in the south. Adams intends to raise northern issues in the Dáil. He told University Times that "partition has had an adverse impact on all aspects of life on this island from the economy to politics to healthcare and education and much more". That boils down to politicising areas of cross-border co-operation by presenting them as stepping stones to unity.
"When the votes are counted after the election, Sinn Féin could be in a strengthened and pivotal position on both sides of the border," Adams explains in his blog, Léargas. "A critical mass of Sinn Féin TDs would complement our strength in the Six Counties and advance the all-Ireland project immeasurably."
The prospect of Sinn Féin being on a roll north and south, with progress in one area assisting success in the other, doesn't alarm only northern parties. Fianna Fáil is also looking for ways to undermine Adams' northern chic and his record as someone who delivered for West Belfast. His record in the constituency, which he has represented with one break since 1983, is being mined for ammunition.
No doubt this will include an anonymous broadside in the Andersonstown News in 2008. Squinter, the author, noted that Adams had been the West Belfast MP for 20 years and said: "It is in that same 20-year period that the slow, steady decline into chaos in certain parts of West Belfast began, and it was on his watch that it has gathered pace to become the runaway train that it is today."
The columnist cited the closure of industries, the loss of communal cohesion and a rise in crime, partly as a result of economic deprivation. "It wasn't as if Adams didn't have the clout and the contacts," Squinter said. "A former aide of Tony Blair has been making frankly embarrassing revelations in a new book about how close Adams and Blair were. Adams was the Oprah Winfrey of Irish America. And what did we get? InBev gone and Visteon [two US companies with local bases] going."
The Andersonstown News is owned by Máirtín Ó Muilleoir, a Sinn Féin candidate in the Stormont elections and a former councillor. The Squinter column was withdrawn and a generously worded front-page apology was issued to Adams. The media in Louth may not be so easy to deal with.
