The story is told of a Northern Ireland farmer who gets married to a neighbour he
doesn't really get on with, for the sake of uniting their farms. "Now she and I are
one," he says at the wedding reception. "And I want to make it clear that I am the
one."
That is essentially the message the DUP is trying to send out, in advance of this
week's Stormont election, about its relationship with Sinn Féin. It isn't entirely
convincing. All marriages and political partnerships involve give and take or they
don't last. This one has gone on for four years and looks solid. If it wasn't, we
would all be in trouble.
The problem for Peter Robinson, the DUP leader, is that in order to reassure his
traditional supporters, he has to convince them he has the upper hand. The message
is that he tamed the Sinn Féin shrew, but still needs support to stop the
nationalist party getting ideas above its station.
That is why, in the final few days before Thursday's poll, the DUP have produced a
billboard campaign proclaiming "Only One Unionist Party Can Win — Let's Keep
Northern Ireland Moving Forward". It is a coded attempt to introduce a sectarian
edge, or at least an element of inter-communal rivalry, to get voters motivated
after what has been a dull campaign that has failed to stir passions in the way of
previous contests.
The "Only One Unionist Party Can Win" line is a reference to the fact that the
Ulster Unionists, after years of being ground down by the DUP's superior
organisation, are not fielding enough candidates to out-poll Sinn Féin. If Sinn Féin
emerges as the biggest party — and it did get more votes than the DUP in last year's
general election — then it gets to select the first minister.
If, as expected, the DUP remains the largest unionist party, it would be left with
deputy first minister. But then the two posts do have almost identical powers, and
incumbents can do little or nothing without agreeing with each other. "Siamese
twins" was the phrase Gerry Adams used to describe the conjoined relationship
between the two offices. Yet the DUP needs to whip up an apathetic electorate in
order to win votes from the Ulster Unionists, and so presents the smaller party as
vote splitters.
Last week another wedding, the one between Prince William and Kate Middleton,
provided a canvassing opportunity that the DUP had been awaiting since it was
announced. Robinson unveiled the killer point on Thursday night on BBC's Hearts and
Minds programme.
"And I'm glad that, tomorrow, I'll be in London, representing Northern Ireland as
first minister at a royal wedding," he said. "You wouldn't have had that if Martin
McGuinness had been first minister." This was in response to a suggestion from
presenter Noel Thompson that there was not a "scintilla of difference" between the
two posts.
"People are saying it is only the DUP that can keep unionism ahead," says Mervyn
Storey, a DUP MLA in North Antrim, the party's heartland. "We haven't made it a fear
factor, but we have made it an issue."
Jim Allister, a former DUP MEP who leads the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) and is
standing against Storey, takes an opposite view. "The past four years makes it
difficult for the DUP to say they want to beat Sinn Féin. The bottom line is that
they might say they are the unionist party that is going to win [but] they are also
the unionist party that Sinn Féin wants to win," he says.
McGuinness has done nothing but praise Robinson since the campaign started. The Sinn
Féiner says that if he does get the first minister post he will share it with a
unionist, making him joint first minister and not deputy. McGuinness criticises
other unionists, along with the SDLP, claiming that the DUP and Sinn Féin are the
only partnership that can bring stability.
To revisit the marriage analogy, it is clear to everyone that, even if they have not
quite grown to love each other yet, the political partners do enjoy a pretty solid
relationship. McGuinness and Robinson send text messages to each other about
football, they have shaken hands, and have presented a common front abroad.
McGuinness looks pretty content after four years together, nothing like a battered
or downtrodden wife.
The atmosphere has improved since interfering relatives who might have stirred
things up left the Stormont home. Gerry Adams is now in the Dáil and the once
threatening figure of Ian Paisley Junior is in Westminster.
It is the mission of the SDLP, UUP and TUV to portray this good relationship as the
height of hypocrisy, a sectarian carve-up between sworn enemies. The SDLP and UUP
have accused the two big parties of bullying tactics at the executive and of forming
a joint axis against other ministers.
Robinson has handled these criticisms quite well, and McGuinness has done so
superbly. He has a temper, but never publicly loses his cool. He projects an
indulgent, avuncular image, saying that it isn't in his nature to be vindictive.
Whatever the reality, McGuinness doesn't look like the sort of politician who would
bully a minister, and appears nonplussed by the very suggestion.
It is good tactics. Sinn Féin's message, summed up on another end-ofcampaign
billboard, is Leadership Across Ireland, with a Sinn Féin logo superimposed on a map
of the whole island. The party hopes for an electoral bounce — and will probably get
it — after its Dáil successes, and needs to show it is steady in government with the
unionists. There are no problems that could possibly get in the way of the
all-island agenda, no danger of a crisis on Sinn Féin's watch.
McGuinness summed it up at the billboard launch. "Our message is a positive one
about building a new future based on equality," he said. "People want the
power-sharing institutions to work and want them defended. Sinn Féin is the party
best placed to do this."
Business as usual, then. No problems as long as you stick with us.
The DUP and Sinn Féin are smooth machines, two Fianna Fails in the making, and are
set to dominate Northern Ireland politics for the foreseeable future. They are
moving towards the centre, too. For instance Robinson attended mass for the first
time at the funeral of a murdered police officer, and has made integrated education
a priority.
McGuinness has wished the royal couple well, and revels in his new role at Stormont.
It is like the glasnost period at the end of the cold war. One political dynamic,
the old tribal and sectarian one, is fading away and it is not clear what will
replace it. With holes in the budget and unemployment rising, there is trouble ahead
for the big parties.
But they are sitting pretty for this election."
