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Bloody Sunday, election, Irish, Ireland, British, Ulster, Unionist, Sinn Féin, SDLP, Ahern, Blair, Liam Clarke, Irish America

Here's to you, Mr and Mrs Robinson

(by Liam Clarke, Sunday Times)

Striding in to meet the Queen with his wife Iris by his side last Wednesday night, Peter Robinson was never more popular, more successful or in a better position to make his mark on history as Northern Ireland's greatest peacetime leader.

Co-leader that is, for everything he achieves needs the co-operation of Martin McGuinness and Sinn Féin. What events of the past year have shown is that, for the foreseeable future, Sinn Féin and the DUP depend on each other's goodwill for their continued success. They are a team, at least for the life of this Stormont assembly, and probably beyond.

McGuinness's helpful attitude, almost as much as Robinson's strength of character and the support of DUP grandees such as Nigel Dodds, are the reasons for the first minister's remarkable political resurrection. Just a year ago his marriage lay in tatters, he was beset by scandal, he'd lost his Westminster seat and he had stood aside as the first minister and DUP leader.

Going into a banquet at Dublin Castle last week, Iris Robinson looked a million dollars and showed every sign of having been in the gym as well as in therapy as she embraced President Mary McAleese. A few weeks earlier, at her mother's funeral, she had embraced McGuinness, who was there as one of the mourners.

After the banquet, Peter Robinson remarked that memorable events often seem impossible in advance, but once they had occurred appear so natural that people wonder why they hadn't happened sooner. While he was referring to the Queen's presence in Dublin, he could as easily have been talking about his and his wife's remarkable social and political resurrection.

This time last year, most commentators were writing him off, and journalists were confidently hunting for more award-winning scandal with which to finish his political career. Mrs Robinson was widely reviled for her extravagance, her links to developers and her extra-marital affair, conducted as she preached teenage chastity and heterosexual monogamy to others.

Her husband's temporarily standing aside as DUP leader was widely regarded as a face-saving device to insulate his party from scandal while a new leader was selected. Several newspaper columnists had given the job to Arlene Foster, who filled in during Robinson's absence. It was assumed she would slip into the job full-time, and her sincere denials of such ambitions were put down to political tact.

There were more revelations about Robinson, but they all proved positive. He gave interviews that won him public sympathy, and received many expressions of support from the public. Instead of seeking to topple him, as might have been expected, McGuinness and Sinn Féin rallied round, offering personal sympathy and political cover while Robinson and the DUP regrouped. They did not do it entirely out of the goodness of their hearts. Generosity is seldom a good motive in politics; enlightened self-interest makes for more durable alliances. Sinn Féin calculated that an opportunistic attack on Robinson would rebound on them.

It would have shown the world that devolution did not work, and boosted morale among dissident republicans. So instead, McGuinness worked with Robinson to bring about the devolution of policing and justice, which eventually allowed both parties to claim a victory.

With worse leadership or a more hotheaded approach from either Robinson or McGuinness, we could have been talking about another Ulster crisis by now. Instead of welcoming the Queen to Dublin – the visit would not have gone ahead if the north was in disarray – taoiseach Enda Kenny and prime minister David Cameron might have been preparing for another round of tedious, hand-holding negotiations with grand-standing local parties.

Instead of all that excitement we have just had the Stormont elections which bored most voters stiff. Passions weren't aroused; even efforts by dissident republicans to inject tension into the equation were unsuccessful. Instead of turning the election into the customary sectarian ding-dong, the DUP and Sinn Féin played it cool, emerging with a stronger grip on the levers of power, gaining at the expense of the SDLP and UUP.

As for Iris Robinson, her tentative return to public life has been universally welcomed. Even the gay community she had condemned, and who had caricatured her as the Wicked Witch of the north, wished her well. John O'Doherty of the Rainbow Project, a gay organisation, said it was "great to see Iris out at the event" alongside her husband, and hoped she would become an advocate on mental health issues, pointing out that they also affected the gay community.

Her re-entry into public life went so smoothly that, as Robinson said of the Queen's visit, you were left wondering why it hadn't happened sooner.

Up until now every Stormont election was followed by questions about whether the institution could survive, and worried promises that all necessary support would be provided from London and Dublin if only people would calm down.

Now the main questions facing Stormont politicians are the ones normally asked after elections in London or Dublin. How will they handle the economy? Are their manifesto pledges to create a shared society and more prosperous future worth the paper they are written on? The electorate will want to know.

During the campaign, parties competed to say what people wanted to hear. So we can now expect a series of policy U-turns or stealth taxes, or both. Promises not to impose water charges, to cut corporation tax, to freeze student fees and to invest more in infrastructure cannot all be met within the set budget handed to the assembly by Westminster.

For example, both the DUP and Sinn Féin gave firm manifesto commitments to open a radiotherapy unit at Altnagelvin hospital in Derry. In fact, they used the issue to help bury the UUP, whose health minister, Michael McGimpsey, had announced on the last day of the old assembly that there was no budget for the running costs for such a unit.

Now that the election is over, the decision is again up in the air. Edwin Poots, the new DUP health minister, says he will make an announcement this week when he has checked out the figures.

The UUP and the SDLP, who formed a kind of internal opposition in the last executive, got a drubbing at the polls.

People plainly voted for the DUP and Sinn Féin not because they wanted polarisation, but because they wanted smooth government.

On Friday, Robinson and McGuinness called on these parties to toe the line on the tough decisions to come. The two men's speeches could have been swapped without anyone noticing the difference. They asked the SDLP and UUP to stick by collective decisions, and not to tell the media about any arguments at executive meetings.

The likelihood is that the smaller parties will continue to score points where they can. They may even move into opposition if the right issue arises. Poots will probably allow the Altnagelvin project to go ahead, but if he does confirm McGimpsey's decision to shelve it, the UUP will hardly let it pass unremarked.

The SDLP will also be looking for opportunities to say "I told you so".

May 23, 2011
________________

This article first appeared in the Sunday Times on May 22, 2011.

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