The DUP and Sinn Féin are poised to make gains in next month's Westminster
election, according to research carried out by the British government.
The Northern Ireland Office (NIO) has conducted its own assessment on the
likely results in all 18 constituencies. The material hasn't been published
but the Sunday Tribune has learned it predicts the DUP's Sammy Wilson
winning East Antrim from Ulster Unionist MP Roy Beggs.
It also says Sinn Féin's Conor Murphy is well ahead of the SDLP's Dominic
Bradley for the SDLP seat of Newry and Armagh.
SDLP leader, Mark Durkan, should hold onto Foyle, although if Sinn Féin's
Martin McGuinness was the candidate, and not party chairman Mitchel
McLaughlin, Sinn Féin would win.
The election campaign in the North, which stalled last week for the Pope's
funeral, begins in earnest tomorrow.
SDLP MP Eddie McGrady should retain South Down but with a reduced majority,
according to the NIO material. The race in Upper Bann between Ulster
Unionist leader, David Trimble, and DUP challenger, David Simpson, was too
close to call.
Support for Simpson runs high in Portadown, home to the Drumcree protest,
but Trimble retains votes in the other key town, Banbridge.
The NIO assessment concluded that the battle in South Antrim, between Ulster
Unionist MP David Burnside and DUP gospel singer, the Rev Willie McCrea, was
also too close to call. The research was carried out around six weeks ago.
The NIO declined to comment on the findings but a spokeswoman said: "For our
purposes we make rolling internal assessments on the likely election results
which are continually updated."
According to the material, the sitting six DUP and four Sinn Féin MPs, are
all safe. The Ulster Unionists are marginally ahead of the DUP in South
Belfast where Michael McGimpsey will defend the seat held by party
colleague, the Rev Martin Smyth.
However, unionist sources say the staunchly anti-Agreement Smyth will next
week publicly demonstrate solidarity with the DUP's Jimmy Spratt, a former
Police Federation chairman, and not with the pro-Agreement Mc Gimpsey.
The Ulster Unionists could be dealt another potentially damaging blow if UK
Unionist leader, Bob McCartney, bows out of North Down. The seat is
currently held by the Ulster Unionists' Lady Sylvia Hermon. If McCartney
runs the anti-Agreement vote will split between himself and the DUP's Peter
Weir. But a single anti-Agreement candidate could go close.
The Sunday Tribune understands McCartney has been shown an advance copy of
the DUP manifesto to convince him the party won't abandon policies to reach
a deal restoring Stormont at any price. McCartney will announce his decision
tomorrow.
