It will be the mother of all elections. Northern Ireland never meaninglessly
goes to the polls but this time the electorate's decision will set the
political map for at least two decades.
The stakes are massively high for the SDLP but especially for the Ulster
Unionist Party (UUP), under pressure from the DUP in all its five
Westminster constituencies.
East Antrim seems a certain loss. South Antrim and Upper Bann are too close
to call. Even South Belfast and North Down could be dodgy.
Meltdown would end David Trimble's leadership and, in the longer-term,
probably also the UUP as unionism realigned.
Ironically, at a time when Sinn Féin is under greater political pressure
than ever, it's the SDLP which faces losing seats. Newry and Armagh seems
already gone. South Down should be retained. Foyle appears tight.
The Northern Bank robbery worries few nationalists. While, the Robert
McCartney murder horrified most, Sinn Féin's hard constituency graft,
powerful election machine, and the high regard in which Gerry Adams and
Martin McGuinness are personally held, should mean that, at worst, its
support generally holds.
Voters like winners and the impression of success lies with Sinn Féin. The
party will exploit the fact that the election is on May 5th, the day on
which Bobby Sands died. Voting Sinn Féin will be equated with opposing the
"criminalisation" of nationalism.
Mark Durkan and Mitchel McLaughlin mightn't be the most exciting politicians
but nowhere will the battle for the heart of Northern nationalism be more
intense than in Foyle.
Political opponents regard them both as nice guys. Durkan is seen as
well-meaning and wordy; McLaughlin as a tad dull. "The most adventurous
thing Mitchel's ever done is shave off his moustache," jokes one republican.
Foyle should be safe SDLP territory. With 50% of the vote in the
last Westminster election, the SDLP outpolled Sinn Féin two-to-one. But that
was with John Hume running and, in the 2003 Assembly elections, Sinn Féin
(32%) was nipping at the SDLP's heels (36%).
Durkan is sincere and committed but has it all to prove. If he remains in
Hume's shadow, then McLaughlin has never emerged from that of Adams and
McGuinness. He's a solid choice for the subs' bench but he'll never be a
star player.
With McGuinness as the candidate, Sinn Féin would have been the clear
favourite in Foyle. The party considered switching him from Mid-Ulster but
decided against it.
If Durkan lacks Hume's romantic past in street protest, then McLaughlin's
lack of an IRA CV makes him a republican "draft dodger".
This absence of IRA history could assist with Derry's middle-class. But
McLaughlin's uncharacteristically careless remark that the 1972 murder of
mother-of-ten Jean McConville wasn't a crime won't help.
While McLaughlin doesn't need to win, Durkan isn't so fortunate. Losing
would surely spell the end for Derry's other mild-mannered politician.
Most MPs can usually walk the streets of their constituency but feelings
against David Trimble run so high in hardline loyalist parts of Upper Bann
that sometimes he is at risk.
Trouble is the last thing the DUP wants as it attempts to seize the jewel in
the UUP crown - its leader's seat.
In 2001, unknown local businessman David Simpson came close to doing just
that. If he doesn't make it this time, Upper Bann will have to learn to live
with Trimble.
Simpson was hugely under-estimated by the media in their last head-to-head.
He's no dark horse this time. Outgoing and articulate, he has a good sense
of fun, bearing no resemblance to the stereotypical dour DUP-er.
At a previous election count in Banbridge leisure centre, Simpson and
supporters joked about stripping off and diving in for a display of
synchronised line-dancing. The Rev Ian Paisley had denounced line-dancing
as immoral.
Even his admirers admit Trimble's people skills are lacking. His
intellectual ability is his greatest asset. He also has a remarkable
survival record. Last time, he was re-elected with the help of SDLP and Alliance voters. It
remains to be seen if they'll come out for him again.
In the 2003 Assembly poll, the UUP was 0.9% ahead of the DUP but
when the votes of independents were counted, there was a slender
anti-Agreement unionist majority. The two main towns are Portadown and
Banbridge. Portadown, home to the Drumcree protest, will plump for Simpson. It's all down to Banbridge.
As the city's most bourgeois constituency, South Belfast isn't normally the
place for a good scrap. But writs and insults are flying and the campaign
isn't a week old.
The UUP, SDLP and DUP are all in with a shout here, polling 27, 23, and 21
per cent respectively in the 2003 Assembly election.
The SDLP's Alasdair McDonnell, first ran for Westminster aged 20.
Thirty-five years and seven unsuccessful attempts later, this is his best
chance if the unionist vote splits evenly.
Sinn Féin's affable Alex Maskey was expected to take SDLP votes but he could
be hurt by the Robert McCartney murder. If the killing harms Sinn Féin
anywhere, it will be here.
McDonnell has highlighted Maskey's response to the murder. Maskey has served
a libel writ on him, although the SDLP dismisses this as a gagging attempt
which will be dropped post-election.
A local GP, McDonnell is known for hectoring patients with unhealthy
lifestyles. He admits he can be abrupt but says he is "no monster".
McDonnell denies it but, as SDLP deputy leader, his relationship with Mark
Durkan is strained.
If Durkan loses Foyle and McDonnell wins south Belfast, he would be in prime
position to contest the leadership.
The DUP vote has grown in south Belfast despite poor candidates. Jimmy
Spratt, who has never run for election before, was the party's surprise
choice.
An RUC officer for 30 years and former chairman of the Police Federation, he
led the charge against the force's change of name and uniform. His strong
law-and-order credentials and lack of party political baggage could be well
received in south Belfast.
"Splitter Spratt" says the UUP's Michael McGimpsey who accuses his rival of
dividing unionists. A tough, canny politician, McGimpsey will fight every
step of the way. He has done considerable ground-work and expresses
confidence.
His sombre appearance has led to nicknames of "Michael the mortician" but he
takes it on the chin. His party colleague, the Rev Martin Smyth, is the
outgoing MP. They're not friends. Smyth was anti-Agreement; McGimpsey
supported the deal. Smyth will make it publicly known his sympathies lie
with the DUP candidate.
South Antrim is another cliff-hanger. The Rev Willie McCrea would hardly be
let across the door of the kind of establishments David Burnside frequents.
They may both be strong anti-Agreement unionists but the similarity ends
there.
The Free Presbyterian minister has sailed closed to the wind in his long
political career. He was jailed for riotous behaviour in 1971 and was back
behind bars later that year for disrupting mass in Canterbury Cathedral.
He once shared a platform with Loyalist Volunteer Force leader Billy Wright.
McCrea is happiest in the gospel halls of rural Ulster. Although, every few
years he does make it to Belfast's Waterfront Hall where he has the faithful
singing, clapping and praising the Lord.
Burnside is every inch a metropolitan mover and shaker. He has been PR
officer for the Institute of Directors in London, publicity director of
British Airways, and once considered joining Tory Central Office.
Originally a Trimble ally, he became disillusioned with his leader in recent
years, believing the Belfast Agreement greatly weakened unionism.
Relations between the pair are frosty.
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McCrea and Burnside have tussled for South Antrim since 2000 when McCrea won
it in a by-election. Burnside took it from him the following year. McCrea
is the narrow favourite this time. The DUP (31%) edged ahead of the
UUP (30%) in the 2003 Assembly election.
