If Jim Monaghan, Niall Connolly, and Martin McCauley are photographed
walking along the street, shopping, or having a pint over coming months,
unionist disillusionment with the peace process will grow.
They will provide the human faces to the assertion that you can be to your
neck in illegal activity, and get away with it, providing you belong to a
certain organisation.
While Northern nationalists never really believed the Colombia Three were
simply in the wrong place at the wrong time – like the Birmingham Six or
Guildford Four – there is widespread sympathy for them.
Whatever the SDLP's private feelings, it knows it would be electoral suicide
to demand their extradition. Sinn Féin supporters were jubilant when they
heard the men had returned. "Niall, Martin, Jim, welcome home", the
graffiti read within hours on the Falls. There is talk of a celebratory wall
mural.
Unionists want them on the next plane back to Bogota and believe this would
happen were Michael McDowell in charge. Few think Bertie Ahern personally
didn't give the nod to the IRA men's return, and Tony Blair wasn't well
aware of it.
"It's all too much of a coincidence, coming so soon after the IRA
statement," says Ulster Unionist Assembly member, Michael McGimpsey. "Those
men know they won't be extradited."
Mention the absence of an extradition treaty with Colombia and unionists
will say "bull**** – if it was al-Qaeda, they'd make or break every law
possible to hand them over". Logically, that's hard to dispute.
Unionist suspicions of the sincerity of the IRA statement have multiplied.
Three fugitives have been smuggled across international boundaries,
apparently days after the Provos' 'ending all activities' pledge. False
documents were undoubtedly used.
This confirms to unionists that the IRA is flouting the law like always.
Sinn Féin and the Colombia Three's denials of the Taoiseach's prior
knowledge of their return won't cut ice.
They will point to Sinn Féin's previous record on the affair. The party
initially denied any links to the men, yet Monaghan was a former ard
chomhairle member, McCauley a former election agent, and Connolly its Cuban
representative.
This is a peace process which has never been open and transparent – both its
greatest strength and weakness. The return of the 'three amigos' would
certainly fit a pattern of secret deals and machinations over the past 11
years.
To Sinn Féin supporters, that's perfectly acceptable. Allowing the trio to
return will be seen as just reward for the IRA statement, and a sweetener in
advance of substantial decommissioning over coming weeks.
Likewise, the release of prisoners from the H-Blocks and Britain helped many
IRA members and supporters accept a ceasefire that went against all their
natural instincts.
To unionists the trio's return is the latest in a choreographed catalogue of
concessions over the past 10 days linked to the IRA statement. It began with
the release of Shankill bomber, Sean Kelly, and was followed by
demilitarisation measures and the disbandment of the Royal Irish Regiment's
home battalions.
The bad news for the governments is that every such incident puts the clock
back further on the likely return of a power-sharing administration. It's
not just the DUP being difficult. The unionist base is every bit as
enraged.
"People on the streets of Enniskillen aren't saying to me 'what are you
doing to try to restore devolution?'" says DUP Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Assembly member Arlene Foster.
"They're saying 'don't dare give in to Sinn Féin and enter government with
them'. Our electoral mandate is being completely ignored. The governments
are doing as they please, and our voters are livid. Politics seems to have
nothing to do with democracy, it's all corrupt."
Northern Ireland Office minister, David Hanson, rang a senior DUP figure
half an hour before the news on the Colombia Three broke to tell him. Hanson
claimed the British government had no advance knowledge.
Dublin has been equally eager to convince the DUP of it' 'innocence'. But
the party wants actions, not words. "If Bertie Ahern is not complicit in
these men's return, he knows what he must do," says DUP deputy leader, Peter
Robinson.
"If the Irish government is seen to be siding with international terrorists,
of course our party's relationship with it will change." Take that to mean
possibly no more negotiations with Dublin.
Many nationalists will say 'good riddance' and urge the Taoiseach to tell
the DUP to get stuffed. But the whole thrust of Government policy in the
past year has been to build bridges with the DUP. Like or not, the party is
instrumental in any future political deal.
A 'getting to know you' exercise by the Government, has involved
establishing contact with a range of sources across the party. The Rev Ian
Paisley's discussions with the Taoiseach over tea and ham sandwiches last
year were truly historic. Without the extradition of the Colombia Three,
Paisley's more likely to be back outside Government Buildings with a picket.
The retort from nationalist grassroots is that unionists should leave the
three IRA men alone and concentrate on the loyalist feud. "The UVF and LVF
are running around blowing each other's heads off.
"The DUP should deal with what's on their own doorstep instead of sticking
their nose into things that happened tens of thousands of miles away in
another country," says a Sinn Féin member in Belfast's Lower Ormeau.
But it can appear (and not just to unionists) that, in the eyes of the
governments, there are good terrorists and bad terrorists. There are
another three IRA men who took a foreign trip but haven't been as 'lucky' as
their Colombian cousins.
Fintan O'Farrell, Declan Rafferty, and Mickey McDonald, all from Co Louth,
were arrested in Slovakia in 2001 in a sting operation involving MI5
officers posing as Iraqi arms dealers. They were swiftly extradited to
London and charged with offences under the Terrorism Act.
They were sentenced to 30 years imprisonment, reduced to 28 years last
month. Dermot Ahern hasn't spoken of the severity of their sentences, nor
are they likely to be walking around the Republic, or anywhere else, for
quite some time. This trio are, of course, Real IRA members.
The perception is that even when they remain involved in criminal or
terrorist activity, Provisional IRA members receive preferential treatment
over other paramilitaries (unless they are the killers of Garda McCabe),
because they have signed up to the Belfast Agreement.
A key factor in determining the Colombia Three's fate will be the White
House's response. The US administration is staunchly opposed to FARC. The
DUP is quoting President Bush's words: "Those who harbour terrorists are
terrorists".
If the White House puts real pressure on Dublin, the men will be extradited,
no matter what manoeuvring it takes.
Bertie Ahern has effectively accepted US foreign policy even when it
involves thousands of civilian deaths in Iraq, so it seems highly unlikely
he would take an independent stance over three paramilitaries.
However, some suspect that the US might be prepared to let this one go,
providing the IRA promises no more foreign escapades and, this time, keeps
its word.
