To outsiders it might seem madness. Why would the Provisional IRA set the
peace process back months, if not years, and risk Sinn Féin's growing
political respectability by robbing the Northern Bank?
It's not as though the IRA is short of money. It already earns up to £30
million a year from a range of legal and illegal businesses. It no longer
has a war to wage or prisoners' families to support.
But netting £26.5 million in one night is difficult to resist. The IRA
robbed the Northern Bank because it could. Experience led it to believe it
could weather the storm of unionist and media reaction.
Although there has been a hullabaloo after other events - Colombia,
Castlereagh, Stormontgate, gun-running in Florida, the Bobby Tohill
abduction, 'punishment' shootings, and a range of killings and robberies -
ultimately, the fall-out is limited.
There have been no serious political repercussions for Sinn Féin from the
state or the electorate to far more violent incidents. "Do you think
anybody around here isn't going to vote for us in May's Westminster election
because of a bank robbery?" asks an amused IRA member in West Belfast.
Billy Lowry, former head of Special Branch in Belfast, says: "In 1994, the
IRA stopped killing soldiers and police officers. It didn't stop other
criminal activities. The robberies and scams continued as normal. The
surprise is that anybody is surprised by this latest job."
A total of £22 million of the stolen money is made up of Northern Bank notes
which will be recalled over coming months. Police Service of Northern
Ireland (PSNI) Chief Constable, Hugh Orde, presents the robbery as a failure
- "the largest theft of waste paper" in Northern Ireland.
"That's nonsense," says a security source. "There are £4.5 million in notes
from other banks which the IRA will have no problem with, and they will try
to get rid of as much of the £22 million as possible over coming weeks.
"They won't be able to shift the whole lot, or even most of it. But they
should move five or six million in that period through their business
network, or by selling it to ordinary punters at half its value or to fences
at a quarter of its value."
Another security source says: "There are plenty of ordinary citizens who
would buy this money. People buy copy DVDs and CDs. If it's going cheap,
they'll buy real money during the next few weeks that it remains legal
tender."
Despite official Sinn Féin denials, it's widely accepted in republican areas
of the North that the Provos were responsible for the robbery. Indeed, many
grassroots members and supporters take pride in the fact.
"The loyalists, the Conts (Continuity IRA) and the Reals (Real IRA) - none
of them are capable of an operation like that," says a south Belfast IRA
member. "The IRA alone is professional enough to do it and get away with
it."
Hugh Orde said it wasn't a victimless crime. He stressed it was a brutal
ordeal for the bank officials' families held hostage. "It mightn't have been
a pleasant 24 hours for them but nobody got hurt," says the IRA member.
"Nobody even got a thump. As for sympathy for the Northern Bank - don't make
me laugh."
A minority of former IRA members are sceptical about the organisation's
increasing wealth. "I'd like to see the money going to the thousands of men
and women who did big whack (time in jail), whose family lives were ruined,
but that's not happening. It's hard to take in but the IRA has become some
kind of capitalist institution," says a Belfast ex-POW.
The IRA gang, believed by both republican and security sources to have
carried out the robbery, is led by the IRA's director of intelligence, a
west Belfast man who helped organise the 1983 H-Block escape.
The gang was also responsible for the £1 million robbery of Makro
cash-and-carry in Belfast last May and the £1.2 million cigarette heist at
Gallaher's warehouse in Belfast three months ago.
"They're not some breakaway or out-of-control group," says a security
source. "They're not internal PIRA dissidents. They're intensely loyal to
the leadership. This isn't their first robbery and it won't be their last."
After he blamed the IRA for the robbery, Sinn Féin condemned Hugh Orde as "a
securocrat". That sits uneasily with its decision to meet him just last
month - until then Sinn Féin had steadfastly refused to meet any Chief
Constable.
Far from using the robbery to hammer the IRA, Orde actually remained out of
the spotlight in the aftermath of the robbery. He didn't make a statement
for 18 days. It's difficult to imagine Sir John Steven's, outgoing head of
the Metropolitan Police, adopting such a low-key approach to a similar crime
in London.
"This is the biggest bank robbery in British history," says the DUP's Sammy
Wilson who sits on the Policing Board which holds the PSNI to account. "Had
it happened elsewhere in the UK, we would have seen daily press briefings by
police.
"The authorities probably hoped the story would die over the Christmas
holidays, especially with the tsunami disaster. But it didn't, so Hugh Orde
had to make his statement."
Arrests are expected over coming months but the IRA gang is highly trained
in anti-interrogation techniques. Security sources said neither the bank
officials nor the witnesses held hostage had been able to provide police
with descriptions.
The PSNI is under massive pressure to secure convictions but inexperience
and sloppy practices have led to failures in several recent cases including
for counterfeit goods.
Security sources have confirmed to the Sunday Tribune that, before the
Northern Bank heist, police had received intelligence the Provisional IRA
was planning a major bank robbery in Belfast.
"We have a series of questions for Hugh Orde at the next Policing Board
meeting," says Sammy Wilson. "We want to know exactly what intelligence
reports suggested beforehand and what action was taken."
Wilson also says banks must revise their security measures. "Practices which
allow access to tens of millions of pounds through just two employees seem
to be very poor."
A Northern bank spokesman said: "Security systems dependent on human beings
are always vulnerable. We give staff comprehensive training in dealing with
potential hostage situations."
Wilson says there are serious questions about the monitoring of CCTV in the
Northern Bank: "It took two hours to move the money from the bank to the
van. Was nobody watching the footage?"
The failure to reach agreement last month meant a settlement leading to a
power-sharing executive at Stormont was a non-runner until after the British
general election in May.
But senior DUP sources now rule out the establishment of any administration
this year. During the last negotiations, the DUP was willing to settle for a
four-month period to assess the IRA ceasefire before entering government
with Sinn Féin.
"We wouldn't go for that now," says the source. DUP deputy leader, Peter
Robinson, says the political process cannot be "held to ransom" by the IRA.
The DUP is calling for the restoration of devolution without Sinn Féin.
But a government source dismissed that as a non-runner: "A DUP-SDLP
government wouldn't command broad support in the nationalist community.
"Sinn Féin represent a majority of nationalists and no administration will
work without them. In their hearts, the DUP know this. They're just
electioneering."
