Even in the darkest days of the Troubles, Northern Ireland was no more
politically divided than it is now. Loyalist East Belfast would never dance
on the streets for any IRA declaration, but there isn't even acknowledgment
the Provos might be changing.
"Thon boy in the white shirt who read out the IRA statement should be locked
up," says Adele Malcolm who is shopping on the Newtownards Road. Her friend,
Elizabeth McLean, agrees: "Would Tony Blair let al-Qaeda sit in their back
gardens recording statements for DVD?
"They're arresting the terrorists in London, yet they want to put them in
government here." But in West Belfast, people believe the IRA statement is,
if anything, too magnanimous.
"The IRA is bending over backwards and unionists are still complaining,"
says Hugh Maguire who is shopping in the Kennedy Centre. "They're not the
only ones who had loved ones killed. There isn't a street in West Belfast
where a family didn't lose somebody."
Another nationalist, Tom, reckons "if Jesus came down from the cross,
Paisley wouldn't just want to see the wounds, he'd demand to see the nails
as well".
All shades of unionist opinion, from the most liberal to the most
right-wing, distrust IRA intentions. Ulster Unionist leader, Sir Reg Empey,
insists the Provos have it all to prove.
David Ervine, leader of the Progressive Unionist Party, the UVF's political
wing, says: "P O'Neill has a seriously credibility problem. He was trusted
more before 1994.
"Then, if he had said 'the moon is pink with polka dots', Prods would have
gone out to take a look. Lying so many times since the ceasefire means that
if he now says 'the sky is blue', nobody will believe him."
Sectarianism plays a role in unionists' response, but the scepticism is also
rooted in fact. The lengthy list of lies includes Colombia, Jean McConville,
the Robert McCartney murder, and the Florida gun-running.
There is also the widely forgotten killing of postal worker Frank Kerr. In
November 1994, two months after the ceasefire, he was shot dead during a
robbery in Newry. Gerry Adams expressed outrage "at the way in which the RUC
has sought to blame republicans for this killing". The IRA later admitted
responsibility.
In the broad nationalist community, such incidents haven't made any lasting
impact. There is immense trust in Sinn Féin leaders. Adams' invitation to
Paisley to a face-to-face meeting is regarded as generous on the Falls.
"If Adams thinks I'm meeting him for tea, he's out of his mind," says the
DUP leader. "And if Tony Blair or anybody else believes I can be bullied
into any deal, they're equally misguided.
"George Bush agrees with me 100% that it's action needed from the
IRA, not words. He phoned me on Thursday for a chat. Ten years ago, who
would have predicted a US President would be ringing Ian Paisley?
"Trimble is gone. The days of pushover unionism are gone. Unionism is
stronger than ever." Paisley has a point and it potentially spells trouble
for the Provos.
Ideologically, Sinn Féin made few gains during the first post-ceasefire
decade, but the impression of victory was created by the image of a weak,
divided unionism.
The DUP's electoral dominance, and its obvious (even to opponents) political
skills, means unionism can no longer be dismissed as dying.
Politically, it's the republican movement which has been forced to retreat.
In February, the IRA made hardline statements and withdrew its
decommissioning offer. Gerry Adams warned the peace process "could be as
transient as Mr Blair's time in Downing Street".
Neither the British government nor the unionists placed anything new on the
table to secure this volte-face and it wasn't down to a moral awakening.
Sinn Féin has of course dressed it up as a victory. Gerry Kelly spoke of the
IRA "liberating" the peace process. But the reality is that applying
pressure to Sinn Féin works.
The governments hope that if the International Monitoring Commission gives
the Provos a clean bill of health in its second report in January, the DUP
will talk to Sinn Féin, and a deal can be reached and fresh Assembly
elections held as early as Spring.
DUP sources say that time-table is wildly optimistic even if the IRA became
the nationalist equivalent of the British Legion. And judging by the Provos'
own statement, that's unlikely.
Retaining an Army Council, a GHQ staff, a Northern Command and various
brigades mean it plans to engage in more than ceremonies.
The musical chairs on the Army Council suggests the IRA knows it will be
involved in activities potentially embarrassing to Sinn Féin. Regardless of
what is claimed, there is no clear green water between Sinn Féin leaders and
the Army Council.
Adams, Martin McGuinness and Martin Ferris have been replaced by three
trusted West Belfast lieutenants. Since the IRA statement, there has been
much talk of the IRA's role in protecting nationalists from loyalist attack.
But that has become a myth in recent years.
Since 1994, loyalists have murdered Catholics, petrol bombed their homes,
and stabbed or beaten them to within inches of their lives. The Provos only
once broke their ceasefire to target a loyalist – UDA member Robert Dougan
in February 1998.
The dozen or so other occasions the IRA has breached its ceasefire was to
kill members of its own community – alleged drug-dealers and informers,
dissidents, and those who have personally clashed with IRA figures. Such
statistics prove the IRA's overwhelming concern is to be an agent of social
control within its own community.
There is uncertainty in nationalist areas over whether the IMC's gaze will
force the IRA into inactivity. "The IRA won't throw its weight about as much
as before," predicts one community activist.
"If somebody attacked Sinn Féin offices or homes, they'll get a bullet in
the head. Dissidents will have to watch out for a glass to the neck or a
knifing. But the IRA won't get away with things on the same scale as
before."
Some observers fear that a flood of defections to dissidents following last
week's statement – plus 'Big Brother' perhaps no longer being able to
'police' them effectively – could increase the dissident threat.
But there is no major split in the IRA at a grassroots or leadership level.
The hardliners generally all left in late 1997 to form the Real IRA. In
grassroots' republican eyes, neither RIRA nor the Continuity IRA are
'successful' because they haven't killed police or British soldiers.
Since 1994, the vast majority of disillusioned IRA members have simply
retired; it will be no different this time. According to informed sources,
the IRA's three previous decommissioning acts have involved six% of
its arsenal.
The organisation is expected to decommission most of its 1980s Libyan
weapons. One republican believed it would retain the clean handguns it has
acquired in recent years for any potential use against rival republicans or
in robberies.
Decommissioning its arsenal is one thing; nobody expects the IRA to
decommission its business empire. Involvement in crime, although more subtly
than before, will continue.
Security and nationalist sources claim the Provos now sub-contract 'jobs' to
criminal gangs. "It's like McDonalds – they award the franchise," says an
official source.
"The IRA is providing the intelligence – and maybe even the weapons – to
others to carry out robberies," says a nationalist source. "They get a cut
but don't risk their members being caught.
"They now delegate the daily management of diesel and cigarette smuggling.
Nobody will catch the local OC with a load of dodgy gear in his boot."
Much of the IRA's business is legitimate with apparently respectable
business-men fronting hundreds of enterprises including shops, apartment and
office blocks, restaurants, hotels and pubs.
Key senior individuals may have personally profited but the bulk of ordinary
activists haven't. Most funds are returned to the organisation. It would be
naïve to expect that all this ended at 4 p.m. last Thursday.
It's in the weeks and months ahead, long after the media has gone, that the
North will be able to see if the IRA's actions have lived up to its words.
Only then, can we judge whether history has been made.
The one area where the IRA will undoubtedly clean up its act is in its
relationship with revolutionary groups abroad. In his response to the Provo
statement, President Bush insisted the IRA must "no longer have contact with
any foreign paramilitary and terrorist organizations".
The desire to mollify the administration – despite the republican base's
strong opposition to US activities in Iraq – was highlighted by Martin
McGuinness's trip last week to brief leading American politicians.
In relation to policing, Sinn Féin wants a pledge to devolve policing and
justice powers to Stormont before it holds a special ard fheis to secure
approval for endorsing the police.
The leadership's motion is guaranteed success. It will be the final step in
the Provos' long journey, says David Ervine: "Policing is a nightmare for
them.
"Martin McGuinness and Bairbre de Brun sitting as British ministers at
Stormont is one thing, but the peeler in the street is much more in-yer-face
for republicans. Accepting him means totally accepting the 'alien' state."
