I can picture it already. The raucous cheering and clapping from the DUP,
the Union Jacks unfurled, and David Trimble, dejected but dignified, putting
a brave face, and words, on defeat in Upper Bann.
Daphne will be by his side, in a sensible suit, loyal and loving to the end.
His wife has been the only person on whom he could count as even his closest
lieutenants plotted behind his back. At times, it seemed they were a
committee of two against the rest of the unionist world.
For Trimble, it has been the long goodbye. It might seem inappropriate that
his final farewell could be beside the swimming pool and gym of Banbridge
Leisure Centre where his Westminster count takes place on Friday.
Doesn't any political leader, let alone a Nobel laureate presiding over a
party with a history as lofty as that of the Ulster Unionists, deserve a
better exit scene?
But under David Trimble, the UUP star has fallen dramatically. The party's
misfortune is that even now, as it faces electoral oblivion, it doesn't know
it. Trimble is predicting UUP gains, not losses. He isn't spinning; he
genuinely believes it.
He could, of course, surprise us all and hang on. He's done it time and time
again before. He's no street fighter but his survival instincts, and
resilience, are first-class. Few leaders have put up with as much. It will
be his finest hour if he defies bookies and commentators by retaining his
seat.
If he doesn't, the UUP will die with him. It won't happen immediately.
There will be a charade of a leadership contest and bravado talk of
rebuilding the party. Behind-the-scenes, resignation letters will flood in,
branches will close, and there will be a wave of defections to the DUP. A
realignment within unionism, that will eventually see the UUP fold, will
begin.
If Trimble holds Upper Bann, his party's woes aren't over, but it will be a
major set-back to DUP expansion. The DUP leadership won't admit it but
they'll be hugely disappointed. South Antrim, East Antrim, South Belfast,
North Down – they're all important. But this is the jewel in the unionist
crown.
That the UUP is even in a position of losing it is testimony to its
arrogance and incompetence. This is the party which thinks it was born to
rule. For decades it lorded it over Catholics. It made the mistake in recent
years of doing the same to Protestants.
Its constituency work in unionist areas is lacklustre. Want to secure a
social security benefit, or better street lighting or youth centre
facilities? Go to the DUP. Even North Antrim Catholics will acknowledge the
Rev Ian Paisley fights tooth-and-nail for whoever needs help.
During the Troubles, the UUP, like its nationalist equivalent, had it easy.
Neither party needed to bother much with the masses. 'Vote for us because
we don't kill people' was the basic SDLP position. 'Vote for us because
we're not a bunch of loud-mouthed DUP bigots' was the UUP tune.
Yet there were bigots in that party too. Just a better-class of bigot. Not
so in-yer-face. Let's remember the UUP was the party which ran the Orange
state for decades, presiding over discrimination and exclusion.
There have been some atrocious comments on race and gay rights' issues from
two DUP councillors. But the UUP has hardly blazed a trail for a liberal,
progressive Northern Ireland.
By signing the Belfast Agreement, David Trimble appeared to be preparing for
a new beginning. But he never developed that vision with any real
enthusiasm.
He will receive Catholic votes on May 5th. But it will be for negative,
(stopping the DUP juggernaut), not positive reasons. He's been hard for
nationalists to like, let alone love. When Paisley launches a diatribe about
the 'harlot of Rome' there is uproar.
But then, we say, sure it's only Paisley being Paisley. He can still go off
and jest with the Taoiseach or leading Dublin businessmen. Trimble has never
managed to charm even those desperate to be charmed by him. Admiration for
his tenacity, but never affection, is the most he can elicit.
The UUP, just like the SDLP, had a decade to halt its decline. But it
continues to believe it has just hit a rough spot and a resurgence is around
the corner.
In last year's European election, its vote fell below 100,000 for the first
time in history. Was there any self-reflection? Not a chance. The DUP is
a leaner, meaner beast altogether. It never rests; doesn't know the meaning
of complacency.
Minutes after receiving a massive 32% vote in the same election, DUP
leading lights gathered in the café at the count centre to discuss
Westminster election plans. It's that hunger and forensic focus that makes
it deadly.
There's a strong class element to the UUP. It has six Lords – (Laird, Rogan,
Kilclooney, Maginnis, Molyneaux and Haughey); a Lady (Hermon); and a Knight
(Sir Reg). Perhaps that's its greatest problem. It still believes it's
living in the era of Big House unionism.
It mistakenly views the DUP as a lower form of life. The irony is there's
plenty of talent in the DUP and most of it probably earns twice as much as
those looking down their noses at it.
The UUP has consistently ignored working-class votes in pursuit of the
elusive 'garden centre Prod' – the upwardly mobile unionist in a two-car,
two-job, 1.2 child household. The irony is that such voters are
increasingly attracted by DUP professionalism.
It's not all been sophisticated strategy though; the DUP has been lucky too.
Many unionists equate the UUP with the RUC's loss, prisoner releases, and
Sinn Féin in government. The DUP's rise coincides with national and
international pressure on the Provos, post-Northern Bank and McCartney
murder. Under the DUP, life seems good for unionists. It's that simple.
The loathing for the UUP leader among his rivals is unprecedented. Those at
other count centres across the North are hoping to finish in time so they
can race to Banbridge to witness his demise. "I'd break my neck, never mind
the speed limit, to get there," says one.
If he loses, they'll sing God Save The Queen with more gusto than ever
before. The script is written but has yet to be delivered. Until the very
end, David Trimble boldly declines to learn his lines.
