Dissident republicans
The war isn't over for the Real and Continuity IRAs so the belief that an
informer 'deserves' a bullet in the head prevails in their ranks.
Some who are now dissidents were Provisionals when Donaldson was informing
in the 1980s and 90s, so he could have personally betrayed them.
If dissidents were responsible, it would make sense to claim the killing
because of its popularity with republican grassroots. Although, they may
have decided not to because keeping the Provos in the frame causes Sinn Féin
political problems.
But sources close to RIRA and CIRA say Denis Donaldson alive was an
embarrassment to the Provos and great propaganda for them. Apart from minor
incidents, both groups are largely inactive.
The Brits
The British security services are morally capable of killing an informer.
Once agents outlive their usefulness, the state has no scruples. "It's
entirely possible they brought in killers who themselves could be found dead
from 'an overdose' soon," says ex-intelligence officer Martin Ingram.
The British track record includes colluding in the death of Pat Finucane and
others. However, Donaldson presented no major threat to them. He wasn't
about to write a book exposing British dirty tricks. He just wanted to live
quietly in Donegal.
Freelance republicans
Donaldson could have been killed by someone with a personal vendetta. Dozens
who were jailed, or whose relatives were killed or imprisoned, could blame
him. After reading of his whereabouts in the newspapers, someone could
easily obtain a shotgun and take revenge.
But there's no tradition of such unauthorised acts in the Troubles. The
killers may have been aiming to create the impression it was more amateurish
than it was. Shotguns are as lethal as normal paramilitary weapon at close
quarters and can be virtually forensically untraceable.
Donaldson's family visited the cottage but the killers knew he was alone and
that they'd be undetected by gardai. It was more professional than it
initially appeared.
Rogue Provisional IRA elements
The seizure of assets along the Border by CAB is said to have angered Slab
Murphy's supporters who believe the Sinn Féin leadership gave promises this
wouldn't happen. These Border republicans then embarrassed Sinn Féin 48
hours before the Blair/Ahern visit and damaged the initiative.
IRA informer, Eamon Collins, who gave evidence against Slab in a libel case
was later killed. However, word of Border discontent is speculative. It
remains to be seen whether CAB's move against Slab is tokenistic or a
serious crackdown.
The Provisional IRA Army Council
After the Northern Bank robbery and Robert McCartney's murder, killing
Donaldson would be too big a risk for the Army Council. On the eve of the
governments' initiative, the timing was disastrous for Sinn Féin.
Or was it? Better to murder before the Assembly returns in May.
Realistically, there won't be a political deal until next year by which time
Donaldson's killing will have long dropped from the agenda.
The IRA statement denying involvement notably used the word "death" not
"murder". The Provos have lied time and time again about Colombia, Garda
McCabe, and countless other incidents.
Donaldson's continued existence incensed ordinary IRA members. Gerry Adams
unwittingly posed for photographs with him a week before he was outed.
"Gerry was made a fool of and the IRA leadership didn't like that," says a
source.
While Sinn Féin leaders were genuinely stunned when Donaldson was outed,
their body language and words suggested a more calm and organised response
this time. The two governments appear to have accepted PIRA's denial and the
peace process won't suffer long-term damage.
