It's the election that will surely lead to what most people thought impossible: the Rev Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness running Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin and the DUP may fire a few salvos at each other on the campaign trail but it's a sham fight. Their real battles lie elsewhere.
It's become increasingly bitter between Sinn Féin and the SDLP, especially since the 'greening' of Mark Durkan's party. On issues such as MI5, the SDLP sounds more republican. Durkan's media performances have improved and people trust him to provide constructive leadership and good government. The SDLP team were more capable negotiators with the British than Sinn Féin but that's lost on the electorate and the party is still charisma-lite.
It will be a few years at least – and certainly post-Adams – before it can realistically talk of catching Sinn Féin. While its vote should hold and party spirits are high, it has fewer chances of new seats than Sinn Féin.
Endorsement of the PSNI has lost Sinn Féin dozens of election foot-soldiers: the people who worked all hours bringing out the party vote. It will also shedhardline support but this could be balanced by new first-time voters and some traditional SDLP supporters now at ease with a more law-abiding Sinn Féin. Gerry Adams huge personal appeal is Sinn Féin's greatest asset.
It's the first electoral outing for independent republicans, so support is difficult to assess. Former IRA gun-runner and Sinn Féin ard comhairle member, Gerry McGeough (Fermanagh and South Tyrone), is by far the most articulate opponent of the leadership to have emerged since the peace process and knows how to run a campaign. His ultra-conservative Catholic views alarm many urban republicans but shouldn't raise an eyebrow in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.
Independent republicans best chance of a seat is Newry and Armagh where Davy Hyland has the advantage of incumbency and is a council poll-topper. Many locals were incensed when Hyland was informed of his Stormont deselection by text. Former South Armagh Sinn Féin Assembly member, Pat McNamee, and ex-councillor Jim McAllister are supporting Hyland and Newry deputy mayor, Martin Connolly, last week resigned from Sinn Féin. Minus Foyle, it's hard to see other independent republicans polling well elsewhere. They're very disorganised, lack resources, and many traditional republicans are so disillusioned they haven't registered to vote.
Internal DUP tensions won't stop a strong performance and the party gaining at least three new seats. Anti-St Andrew's Agreement loyalist candidates shouldn't make an impact and the UUP crumble continues. In not one constituency can a UUP gain be predicted. A bad election could see Sir Reg Empey resign with North Down Assembly member Alan McFarland, or even MP Lady Sylvia Hermon, his most likely successor.
If there's now greater religious equality in the North, the gender deficit remains, particularly in unionist politics. The UUP has one woman, Marion Smith, out of 37 Assembly candidates so far selected. Only four of 42 DUP candidates picked at this stage are women. Sinn Féin is running 11 women out of 37 candidates and the SDLP 13 out of 36.
The 18 constituencies:
West Belfast
SF 4, SDLP 1, DUP 1 (2003 Assembly results)
The jewel in SF's crown, the party is seeking a whopping five seats here but it will take excellent vote management. SDLP support has plummeted since the ceasefire, although Attwood should hold on. The battle for the sixth seat should be between SF and the DUP's Diane Dodds representing the Shankill. Her constituency work is first-class but she needs the Protestant vote out. Turn-out in nationalist areas is over 70%, the Shankill manages 50%.
East Belfast
DUP 2, UUP 2, PUP 1, Alliance 1
Even the sympathy vote won't stop the DUP swiping David Ervine's old seat from new PUP leader Dawn Purvis. It will leave the PUP with no Assembly representation and mean the party's effective end.
North Belfast
SF 2, SDLP 1, DUP 2, UUP 1
The constituency in which most people were killed in the Troubles and the one most riven by sectarian divisions. The DUP could wipe out the UUP here, taking Fred Cobain's seat. Opposition to SF's PSNI support is high in Ardoyne but the party will retain its seats.
South Belfast
SDLP 2, UUP 2, DUP 1, SF 1
The DUP should take Esmond Birnie's UUP seat in the city's wealthiest constituency. This is the only Belfast SF seat under threat: Alex Maskey will battle it out with Anna Lo of Alliance. Lo, of the Chinese Welfare Association, is the first candidate from an ethnic minority background to contest a winnable Assembly seat. Robert McCartney's murder cost SF support here in 2005 but PSNI endorsement might bring some back. Previously viewed as a hard man, Maskey has impressed in many middle-class areas.
Mid-Ulster
3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP
Despite rebellion over policing from the IRA's South Derry brigade and the resignation of sitting SF Assembly member Geraldine Dougan, SF should retain its seats. There will be added interest if Dominic og McGlinchey, son of murdered INLA chief-of-staff, runs. His uncle, Paul McGlinchey, is the currently declared independent republican candidate. The DUP could take the UUP seat.
North Antrim
3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP. No change expected on Ian Paisley's turf.
South Antrim
2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance
Parachuted in from Derry, SF's Mitchell McLaughlin must be favourite to take Alliance leader David Forde's seat, given the Catholic influx into the constituency from over-populated West Belfast. Failure for either man would mean the end of their political career.
East Antrim
3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance
Very outside chance that Danny O'Connor, SDLP Larne mayor who has previously suffered sectarian attacks, could take a UUP seat but the SDLP vote here fluctuates hugely so no change most likely.
Newry and Armagh
3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 UUP
The most fasicnating constituency of all. DUP gospel singer Paul Berry resigned from the party after being caught in a hotel room with a gay masseur. He's defending his seat as an independent. He works hard and attracts a big personal vote but the new DUP candidate should come through. SF's third candidate might be vulnerable to rising SDLP star, Sharon Haughey, and sitting independent republican Assembly member Davy Hyland – deselected by SF after his anti-PSNI stance. On balance, SF slim favourites to hold.
West Tyrone
2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Ind, 1 UUP, 1 DUP
No change likely.
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
2 SF, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP
SF not guaranteed the third seat it wants. Independent republican Gerry McGeough will take some traditional republican votes in Bobby Sands' old constituency. The DUP is growing fast and will consolidate the second seat it gained when Arlene Foster defected from the UUP after the last election.
Lagan Valley
UUP 3, DUP 1, Alliance 1, SDLP 1
SF's Paul Bulter narrow favourite to take the SDLP seat won by Patricia Lewsley who left to become the North's new Children's Commissioner. The DUP will hold the two UUP seats it secured after the defection of Jeffrey Donaldson and Norah Beare and stands a chance of taking the third UUP seat too.
Foyle
3 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 DUP
SF will try in vain to overtake the SDLP in that party's best constituency. Ex-IRA prisoner, Martina Anderson will be elected on her first electoral outing for SF. Peggy O'Hara, whose son Patsy died on hunger-strike, will tug at republican heart-strings and Veteran socialist Eamonn McCann usually polls well, but the current seats should remain unchanged.
East Derry
2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP
DUP hoping for the UUP's second seat but it will be tight.
North Down
UUP 2, DUP 2, Alliance 1, UK Unionist 1
The North's 'Gold Coast' constituency should remain unchanged. The only question is whether UK Unionist leader and staunch St Andrew's Agreement opponent, Bob McCartney, stands again.
South Down
2 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP
SDLP hopes to take SF's second seat seem unrealistic. The DUP is eyeing the UUP seat and local farmer John McAllister isn't a strong candidate, but the UUP should hold on.
Upper Bann
2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 SF
This bitterly divided constituency, home of Drumcree, should remained unchanged. But a strong anti-St Andrew's Agreement candidate could possibly take a seat.
Strangford
DUP 3, UUP 2, Alliance 1
Popular Portaferry chip shop owner, Joe Boyle of the SDLP, is challenging for the Alliance seat, although he needs a high number of first preferences as transfers will be scarce in this overwhelming unionist constituency. The Catholic population of Carryduff and Saintfield is expanding and Boyle's profile has grown since becoming the only nationalist on Ards Council. The DUP is eyeing a UUP seat but pulling off four is hard.
