The man who made a career out of saying 'No' was about to say 'Yes'. The Rev
Ian Paisley was preparing to advise his party's ruling executive to endorse
the two governments' proposals for a settlement. Northern Ireland was on
the brink of the mother of all deals.
The new agreement would see an end to IRA activity and complete
decommissioning by Christmas; Sinn Féin acceptance of the Police Service of
Northern Ireland; and a power-sharing Executive by March.
Yet it all fell apart and the chances are nothing will be resolved before
next year's Westminster election. "The DUP had the chance of something big
and they blew it," says a Sinn Féin source.
"There never was trust between our two parties but this whole experience has
made us more determined than ever to bolt down the IRA on everything in
future," says a DUP insider.
The North's three decades long conflict could potentially have ended in a
five-and-a-half hour period on Wednesday. A series of sequenced events was
to begin with a statement from the governments at 9 am, then statements from
the IRA and the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning
(IICD).
Next, the 80-strong DUP Executive would meet with Dr Paisley recommending
acceptance of a comprehensive deal, including photographic evidence of
decommissioning. The DUP would issue a statement, followed by Sinn Féin an
hour later. A triumphant Blair-Ahern press conference would round off
events.
On Monday afternoon, it looked good. Dr Paisley met Tony Blair in Downing
Street. A fortnight earlier, the DUP were seeking clarification on 43 points
in the governments' proposals.
It was now down to four: details on decommissioning photographs and
witnesses; a financial peace package for Northern Ireland; some queries on
accountability at Stormont; and a specific confidence-building measure for
the unionist community.
Dr Paisley gave the questions to Blair and departed. Later DUP MPs, Peter
Robinson, Jeffrey Donaldson, and Gregory Campbell arrived for talks with
Blair's chief-of-staff, Jonathan Powell.
They left satisfied with verbal pledges on the confidence-building and
accountability issues, and believing the financial package was in hand.
Decommissioning was more difficult.
An IRA representative had met the IICD that day but gave no commitment on
photographs or witnesses. However, it was understood the Provos were still
working on an inventory of weapons. The IRA was remaining in contact with
the IICD so progress was likely.
On Tuesday, the DUP received written commitments from Blair on the
confidence-building and accountability matters. The financial package issue
was moving positively - but not decommissioning.
At a second meeting with the IICD that day, the IRA again refused to discuss
photographs or witnesses. Blair phoned Paisley and told him the Provos
weren't buying the deal.
So did the IRA get last-minute cold feet or was the DUP out to humiliate
republicans with unreasonable demands? Isn't it nonsense for both sides to
jeopardise remarkable progress in so many other areas for a selection of
photos?
The "Kodak moment" is vital for both the DUP and Sinn Féin because so many
people in Northern Ireland believe little or nothing was destroyed in past
decommissioning 'events'. Village understands that the weapons previously
decommissioned accounted for six% of the IRA's arsenal.
The arms issue is hugely emotional for republican grassroots. The
leadership's turnaround from "not a bullet, not an ounce" to acceptance of
decommissioning is a sensitive matter.
There has been a process of smoke and mirrors. IRA leaders have briefed
activists that only replica weapons, dodgy detonators and explosives, and
antique guns have been destroyed. Most grassroots republicans accept this.
The level of distrust of the authorities is so great that many ordinary
unionists also doubt any real decommissioning took place. They suspect the
IRA, the British government and the IICD collaborated in a 'con job'.
It isn't enough for a Protestant cleric, even DUP approved, to witness the
next event. The Cullybackey farmer wants to see the proof himself. Unionists
also argue that as security force demilitarisation occurs in public, so
should IRA disarmament.
The issue of visual evidence of IRA decommissioning was first publicly
mentioned by DUP deputy leader, Peter Robinson, in March. It was then on the
agenda at the Leeds Castle negotiations in September. Both governments
accepted it as necessary.
After Leeds Castle, the DUP moderated its demand for a "Steven Spielberg
act", capturing decommissioning on film, to one for photos. It also accepted
publication be the day devolution was restored in March and not immediately
after decommissioning as it had preferred.
But the DUP stuck firmly to the need for public pictures. Village has
learned that the necessity of publishing photographs was referred to in the
previous two drafts of the governments' proposals and in various other
talks' documents.
Sinn Féin claims it told the governments before Leeds Castle, and again on
November 17th that the publication of photos was "a bridge too far" for the
IRA. In a statement, the IRA has said pictures were never possible. But
British government sources claim Sinn Féin certainly didn't convey this
forcefully or gave the impression compromise was likely.
It is also claimed that at one stage the IRA taking its own photos was
suggested, although this was rejected by the DUP who insisted a professional
international photographer be employed. "The idea that Sinn Féin was saying
a very loud 'No' to photos right through these talks and warned this would
be a deal-breaker is absolutely wrong," says a key talks' source.
While Dr Paisley's comments about the IRA repenting in "sackcloth and ashes"
were unhelpful to the negotiations, the difficulties created shouldn't be
over-emphasised. Shinners aren't sensitive souls. They know Dr Paisley's
propensity for colourful comments and take them with the proverbial pinch of
salt.
Gerry Adams wouldn't accept his comments about the IRA a few years ago -
"they haven't gone away you know" - were an obstacle to progress then. One
theory is that problems with individual senior IRA members, combined with
some grassroots unease, meant Sinn Féin couldn't deliver the IRA on photos.
In the previous week, three prominent west Belfast republicans, including a
man who has acted as the IRA's go-between with the IICD, were seen several
times in lengthy, intensive discussions on a street close to Sinn Féin
headquarters in Andersonstown. British intelligence bugging means key
conversations are often outdoors.
Other observers argue that Sinn Féin was never serious about a deal as it
had long decided a major compromise would be more strategic after the
Westminster election. The party wrongly believed Paisley would never endorse
an agreement and then used the photos as an escape route.
The DUP has so far refused to negotiate directly with Sinn Féin but Adams is
now calling for face-to-face talks with Dr Paisley. That won't happen. DUP
sources argue that David Trimble negotiated the Belfast Agreement without
direct dialogue. "What's the point in talking to Gerry if, as he so
regularly states, he doesn't represent the IRA and the IRA makes all its own
decisions anyway," says a DUP insider.
Despite the inability to close a deal, the progress made shouldn't be
under-estimated. The DUP statement, which was due to be released in the
event of a settlement on Wednesday, sounded like nothing the party has ever
said before.
"It could have been written by John Hume," quips one observer, pointing out
the repeated references to "constructive partnership" and working positively
for the "whole community".
The DUP also referred to the need to create "a society in which there is
respect for the rights and equality of all our citizens" and action is taken
against "sectarianism, racism and intolerance".
The IRA statement, to be released, didn't go so far as to say the war was
over. It merely stated: "All IRA volunteers have been given specific
instructions not to engage in any activity that might thereby endanger the
new agreement." However, the DUP was prepared to accept this as it met the
requirement that P O'Neill's last hurrah didn't glorify past IRA actions.
The two governments have been keen to publicly avoid blaming anybody for the
stalemate. "There's no point in us hitting out at those whom we need to
bring back to the table," says a Government source.
The Taoiseach has u-turned on his previous position that if a deal wasn't
reached this time, another chance mightn't arise until 2006. Both
governments say they are determined to bridge the gaps and refuse to rule
out the possibility of progress by Christmas.
It seems unlikely. The Blair-Ahern smiles were bright but forced in Belfast
on Wednesday. And there is a complete absence of 'people power' demanding
the DUP and Sinn Féin do imminent business.
Regardless of the evidence, most ordinary nationalists take comfort in
blaming "DUP dinosaurs" and most unionists insist the latest fiasco shows
the IRA will never change. The parties might have been on the brink of a new
deal but in the wider community, sectarian stereotypes are more popular than
ever.
