Just imagine if the stalking horse decided he wanted to be Best Mate. David
Hoey has pledged to step aside if he triumphs at Saturday's UUC.
But what if he declared, "Heck, I'm a winner! I've enjoyed the last week. I
like this leadership lark. Stand down? You must be kidding. See ya at
Stormont on Monday boys!"
The look on the faces of the wispy, wimpy wannabes - who hanker for the
leadership but don't have the guts to put their names on the ballot paper -
would be priceless. Sources close to Hoey, "a man of his word", insist he
would stand down.
Some in the party are enraged the contest is happening at all. The cheek of
a man with a 1970s-style moustache and a Jack Russell (who answers to the
name of Scamp), challenging a Nobel Laureate.
And now Portadown businessman Robert Oliver has similar notions. The man,
known until now mainly for tvs and tv aerials, says he's running to win.
Insiders suggest he will be supported by those who dislike David Burnside as
much as they loath Trimble.
It's all becoming farcical. Team Trimble will be amused. But even if their
man wins on Saturday, there are still massive problems. Ordinary unionists
are unimpressed by his international accolades.
Sure, they want a leader who can string his sentences together and won't
embarrass them on the world stage. But it's even more important he can walk
the streets of his own constituency, wins elections, and gives them a sense
of pride.
And Trimble just doesn't deliver. Cleverness doesn't equal common-sense. He
has had countless opportunities to reconsider where he is leading his party.
But he refuses to acknowledge a problem even exists. The SDLP did the same
and they're finished. The UUP is probably just an election or two away from
the same fate.
The SDLP fooled itself into thinking the electorate was engaged in only a
brief encounter with Sinn Féin and, after waking up one morning too many to
the whiff of cheap perfume, would return home.
It didn't happen and it never will. When nationalist voters eventually do
decide to wander, it will be to some new political party - probably on the
radical left - not to the SDLP.
Mark Durkan's party didn't heed the warnings. It has sunk too far. The UUP
is behaving in a similarly fatalistic fashion. It's ignoring the iceberg
alert. It let Jeffrey Donaldson walk and the impression is that if David
Burnside or Martin Smyth voiced the same intention, they would be allowed to
walk too.
The DUP modernisers will ensure their party retains the right ambience for
those golf club unionists who normally wouldn't associate with it.
And with the Rev Ian Paisley at the helm, those - who otherwise could
harbour suspicions about what exactly his lieutenants might be up to -
relax. The Big Man would never sanction anything which imperils the
province.
Trimble has failed in the vital task of bringing his community with him in
the process of change. He hasn't inspired. He seems too high-brow. He
doesn't do charisma.
He doesn't do resignation either. Sources, across the party, predict he will
hang on as leader, even if he wins by only one vote on Saturday. The 'No'
camp lost around 100 UUC delegates with Donaldson's departure. Some have
been replaced by other anti-Agreement activists but how many?
The big question though is what those inhabiting the UUP middle-ground do in
the privacy of the ballot box. It's the guys watching from the stands, not
the runners on the course, who will decide the result of the 1pm on
Saturday.
