The British and Irish governments are developing a
fresh two-stage initiative on Northern Ireland which
could see the Democratic Unionist Party in direct
negotiations with Sinn Féin by the end of the year.
This emerged last night (Friday) ahead of tomorrow's (Sunday)
meeting in Dublin between the Taoiseach, Mr Bertie
Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair.
Political leaders on all sides in the North had
condemned the cancellation of this week's scheduled
"proximity talks" on the initiative of the Taoiseach.
However - following separate British and Irish
discussions with Sinn Féin and the DUP over the past
week - expectations are again high that Mr Blair and
Mr Ahern will lead a newly intensive round of
political talks in the immediate aftermath of the
European elections in June.
Further evidence of a new, if still cautious, mood
emerged last night with confirmation that Mr David
Trimble would assist any DUP/Sinn Féin negotiation by
holding confidential talks with DUP leader the Rev Ian
Paisley about the Ulster Unionist Party's failed
negotiation with Sinn Féin in the run-up to last
November's Assembly election.
At the same time it is understood the SDLP is
developing proposals which would allow the Stormont
Assembly to resume limited functions, should the
DUP/Sinn Féin standoff prove protracted. However in
statements in the House of Commons and Lords this week
British ministers made clear their continuing
commitment to an "inclusive" process, and it is the
prospects for an inclusive Northern Ireland Executive
which will dominate tomorrow's talks between Mr Ahern
and Mr Blair.
The Irish Times understands that a two-stage process
is envisaged. The first stage - which would be
designed to meet the DUP's terms for direct engagement
with Sinn Féin - would require substantial movement by
the IRA in terms of "acts of completion" and by London
in respect of commitments given in last year's
pre-election negotiation and in the earlier British
Irish Joint Declaration.
During this first stage of developments the DUP would
expect a transparent act of IRA decommissioning,
together with a timetable for the completion of the
decommissioning process, coupled with a cessation of
all paramilitary and criminal activities to be
verified by a further report by the Independent
Monitoring Commission (IMC) at the end of the year.
The DUP has made it clear that if the second stage is
reached, its intention will be to negotiate
fundamental changes to the existing political
structures as part of its commitment to "an
alternative" to the Belfast Agreement.
Dublin sources believe the DUP is "setting the bar too
high" for republicans. The view in Whitehall however
is that "the bar is high anyway" following last week's
first report from the IMC implicating Sinn Féin and
the Progressive Unionist Party with continuing
paramilitary activities.
Moreover, it appears the door to immediate and phased
progress might be unlocked by disclosure of the
detailed understandings entered into by the two
governments, Sinn Féin and the Ulster Unionists during
last October's failed negotiation.
In the Commons on Wednesday Dr Paisley pressed
Northern Ireland Security minister Mr Ian Pearson to
disclose what "went wrong" on that occasion: "The
statement (by the two governments) that was due to be
made was not made. It was argued among the parties
involved that certain promises had been made and given
and were not kept. Does not the minister think that
the time has come to announce to the House what those
promises were? Why have the general public been kept
in the dark about this very important matter?"
On the same day Mr Trimble wrote to Dr Paisley
outlining the general UUP position of last autumn,
telling him: "With regard to any discussions we had
with republicans or Her Majesty's Government, I do not
think I can go beyond what is already in the public
domain." However, Mr Trimble added: "In the event of
there being serious negotiations between the DUP and
republicans, we are ready to join in, and, in that
context would be willing to share with you, on a
confidential basis, our assessment of the positions of
other parties and the possibilities for a positive
outcome."
