In Dublin, Bertie Ahern talked up the chance of a historic deal to restore
the North's political institutions. In the Belfast Telegraph, a writer
wondered if Stormont might become a golf course now it has lain vacant so
long.
It's a case of brash Southern optimism versus canny Northern realism.
November 25th is the latest deadline, in a long list of 'ultimate'
deadlines, the governments have imposed on the peace process over the years.
The paries will receive the governments' proposals on the way forward on
Wednesday and will have a week to respond.
In the past fortnight, Dublin has dramatically upped the ante. It warns the
DUP not to throw away an unprecedented opportunity for a lasting settlement
and IRA decommissioning by Christmas.
The Taoiseach says people would be "amused" if they knew what was holding up
agreement. Government sources refer to divisions in the DUP and challenge
the party to show it's serious about compromise.
If Bertie Ahern wants to coax the DUP into taking the plunge, he's going
about it all wrong. The DUP isn't a party to bully or bounce into an
agreement. Such attempts will only backfire.
Both nationalist and unionist talks' insiders say they are 80% of
the way towards a deal. However, senior DUP figures accuse Dublin of
"massive and unhelpful spinning" and blame it, and not Sinn Féin, for
lessening the chances of progress.
"The Taoiseach's recent comments make me more pessimistic about the
likelihood of closing the remaining gaps between ourselves and Sinn Féin,"
says one. "I thought people in Dublin knew the party and politicians they
were dealing with. The tactics that worked with David Trimble and the Ulster
Unionists don't work with Ian Paisley and the DUP.
"Bertie Ahern basically said 'Catch yourselves on lads. There's a great deal
on the table. If you don't take it, you're against peace'. Well, it's not
yet all there on the table. There is a serious amount of work still to be
done in getting the right deal and the Taoiseach singling out our party for
attack is silly.
"It has absolutely no effect in terms of producing movement. Sometimes you
wonder what they're eating and drinking in Dublin. Does Bertie think DUP
voters will turn on us for blocking the process because of what he says? A
Taoiseach's words have the opposite effect.
"We will not go for some quickly cobbled together deal that can't command
support in our community. Trimble did that and look where it got him."
Government sources accuse the DUP of not providing leadership and "making a
tortoise seem speedy" in terms of political movement.
The biggest obstacle remains the transparency of IRA decommissioning. The
DUP is demanding a visual aspect; Sinn Féin is firmly refusing. Sinn Féin
says by offering complete decommissioning and pledging all military activity
will cease, the IRA is going further than anyone would ever have believed.
It argues that photographic evidence of disarmament would be interpreted as
an IRA surrender. It would be used as propaganda by rival anti-Agreement
republicans intent on destabilising the peace process.
The DUP insists it's not out to humiliate the Provos but unionist grassroots
must have faith in events. The secrecy of previous decommissioning acts led
many to believe nothing had been decommissioned, and the governments, the
IRA, and Gen De Chastelain had collaborated in a big con.
The DUP says it has only the governments' word on likely IRA decommissioning
by Christmas; it still hasn't seen a text from the Provisionals. Sinn Féin
sources say they won't circulate statements in the absence of agreement on
other matters.
The Independent Monitoring Commission report said while the Provisional IRA
wasn't involved in attacks on the British Army or police, it remained
"highly active in paramilitary style shootings short of murder".
Although senior DUP figures believe it's what the Provos do after a deal,
not before one, that's important, they say continuing IRA activity
undermines confidence among unionist grassroots.
"There's a feeling in our community that the IRA turns the tap of violence
and criminality on and off when it wants to. It does the odd shooting here,
the odd heist there, when it's meant to be working to a new agreement," says
a DUP figure.
Sinn Féin sources point out that loyalist paramilitaries remain active and
are responsible for far more violence. There has been progress between the
DUP and Sinn Féin in terms of the reform of the Stormont political
structures.
Insiders say Sinn Féin has agreed to changes to allow the future First
Minister (Ian Paisley) and the Deputy First Minister (Martin McGuinness) to
be elected separately in order to spare the DUP's blushes with a single
election.
The parties are still at odds over DUP demands to make ministers more
accountable to the Assembly. Sinn Féin remains unconvinced the DUP is
genuinely concerned about democracy and claims that, as the largest Assembly
party, it just wants to tie the hands of nationalist ministers by
reintroducing majority rule through the backdoor.
Both parties are agreed on the transfer of policing and justice powers from
Westminster to Stormont. In return, Sinn Féin will support the police force.
However, Sinn Féin wants policing and justice devolved to the Assembly
within a year or two, while the DUP refuses to commit to a time-frame,
saying it depends on "community confidence". Even if the situation
developed smoothly, the DUP is unlikely to agree to devolution of these
powers in under two years.
Speculation that the DUP is split over a deal is untrue. While there are
occasional differences between fundamentalist and pragmatic elements over
tactics, the party remains united. Reports that Nigel Dodds favoured a more
hardline approach and clashed with Peter Robinson are fiction. Sinn Féin
remain similarly united, although the party plays up reports of tensions in
IRA ranks to the governments in order to strengthen its hand.
The November 25th deadline has been set because that marks the anniversary
of last year's Assembly elections. Also, in the event of a deal, Sinn Féin
wants to be back in government before the likely May Westminster elections.
The DUP is demanding a period to assess the promised ending of IRA activity
before the Assembly and Executive are restored. As the clock wouldn't start
ticking until the date of a deal, Sinn Féin needs an agreement imminently.
A settlement in the first half of next year, when the parties are in
election mode, is unlikely. In the second half of 2005, the UK will hold
both the EU and G8 presidencies which could limit Tony Blair's involvement
in Northern Ireland negotiations.
That's why the Taoiseach has claimed that unless progress is made now, the
chance of a deal could be lost until 2006. There is speculation that,
regardless of progress with the parties, the governments could pressing
ahead with the phased restoration of the Assembly and Executive, providing
the IRA decommissioned.
But any proposals will fail if the DUP don't sign up to them. Twenty DUP and
a handful of anti-Agreement UUP members created turmoil in the last
Assembly. Now with 33 out of 108 Assembly seats, the DUP would be even more
powerful.
Previous initiatives in Northern Ireland failed because of Sinn Féin and
Provisional IRA opposition. Unpalatable as it may be to nationalists, no
agreement can work without the DUP.
