As the Ulster Unionist Party gathers for its annual conference on Saturday,
David Trimble will be in buoyant spirits. The location is the pretty, Co
Down resort of Newcastle. "The seaside air suits our mood," says a delegate
delighted that, for the first time, the event is taking place without
"Jeffrey and his gang".
Officially, everything's hunky-dory now Donaldson has run off to the DUP.
Just listen to the UUP literature: the conference will have "high-profile
political guests, great debates and some fun too". It will be "the envy of
every other political party in Northern Ireland".
When you read such nonsense, you know the UUP is finished. It's
congregating after its third electoral mauling in a row. In June's European
election, its vote fell below 100,000 for the first time in its history. It
could be left with only two Westminster seats after next year's election.
Yet it's still refusing to engage in any self-analysis and blithely
continues believing it's own propaganda. The only lively aspect to its
conferences in recent years were the rows. Now, the grey men in grey suits
will once again be uninterrupted on the platform. There will be few
under-50s and even fewer women. Admittedly, Trimble won't be heckled this
time. He will receive polite applause and a standing ovation from those who
have remained awake.
The third biography of Trimble in as many years was launched last week but
the UUP leader fails to inspire the same passion or interest among unionist
grassroots as he does among journalists.
Delegate numbers at the conference will be well down. Around 250 attended
last year. Before the divisions over the Belfast Agreement, three times that
number would attend and there were realistic hopes of 1,000-strong
conferences. Now, the DUP is the only unionist party capable of attracting
those numbers.
Donaldson's departure certainly doesn't mean a conference love-in. At
Trimble's side will be his deputy, Sir Reg Empey. Trimble-Empey makes
Blair-Brown look like Romeo and Juliet. Regarded as one of the strongest
supporters of the Agreement, details of Empey's secret plotting and scathing
memo about UUP headquarters were published by Donaldson last month.
Yet Trimble is so weak, he can't afford to oust Empey or even publicly
acknowledge his disloyalty. The charade of unity will continue at the
weekend. Trimble's four fellow MPs hardly comprise a phalanx of support.
David Burnside and the Rev Martin Smyth are firmly anti-Agreement.
Roy Beggs is an insignificant figure who will lose his seat in next year's
election. Lady Sylvia Hermon, a loyal Trimbleite, is far too liberal for
many in the party, appalled that she frequently votes with Labour in the
Commons. "The suits try and keep her off the telly whenever possible," says
an insider.
UUP speech-writer, Alex Kane, is one of the few prepared to confront the
crisis. "We are in the midst of a living nightmare and I see no evidence
we're doing anything about it," he says. "The biggest problem is strategy.
I haven't a clue what our policy is on most current issues, the media don't
know, voters don't know, even our own members don't know."
The DUP message is simple - a "fair deal" for unionists with complete and
transparent IRA decommissioning, an end to all IRA violence, and greater
accountability in the Stormont political institutions.
Kane says the UUP's image couldn't be worse. "We are perceived as a party
slipping into political and electoral insignificance. We are seen as poor
negotiators and as lazy and lacklustre at constituency level.
"Our election campaigns are atrocious. We lack foot-soldiers on the ground.
Our candidates in next year's election will be lucky if they can muster half
a dozen canvassers each. There is no unity nor central purpose in this
party. We are a loosely linked collection of individuals and semi-autonomous
branches."
Kane traces the UUP's problems to the leadership's post-Agreement hesitancy.
"We were for the Agreement but we didn't promote it. It became the Wildean
thing - the policy that dare not speak its name.
"There was a diet of abuse from the anti-Agreement side and our base became
jittery. The impression was created that Sinn Féin got a better deal and we
didn't shout back loudly that Sinn Féin had signed up to partition and
effectively accepted Northern Ireland was remaining British."
Although a Trimbleite, Kane thinks he must go: "David faced realities other
unionists refused to. He realised if we wanted devolution, sharing power
with Sinn Féin was the price. But he now has to ask himself if he can unite
the party. My own view is he can't and he should step down. How many votes
or seats must we lose before he realises that?''
The UUP's problem is it has no alternative leader. Its hierarchy are short
on clout and charisma. "Never mind the substance, they've got no style,"
mocks a DUP figure. "Even if they hired the best image consultants in the
land, there's little could be done. How could you rebrand them? There's
nothing young or dynamic to rebrand. People see them as losers. It's only a
question of the speed of their demise."
Sinn Féin and the DUP have another fortnight to reach a deal. After that,
the chance of a settlement which would see the Stormont Assembly and
Executive in operation before next year's election will fade. Without a
deal, the DUP will remain the largest unionist party and should hold most of
its new votes. With a deal, it will demolish its rival.
"If the DUP secures complete and transparent IRA decommissioning, an end to
IRA violence, and an improvement in the political institutions, what can the
UUP do - go into the election declaring 'vote for us because we would have
got a worse deal'? Because that's all it could say," declares a senior DUP
figure.
The UUP might accuse the DUP of a sell-out. But unionist voters won't listen
to a party they believe has previously betrayed them. Trust is a
black-and-white matter. Ordinary Protestants don't trust Trimble but they
do trust Paisley. Any deal good enough for him will be fine by them.
There is a strong class element to the UUP's problems. It has six Lords
(Laird, Rogan, Kilclooney, Maginnis, Molyneaux and Haughey); a Lady
(Hermon); and a knight, (Sir Reg). No-one is titled in the DUP.
As a bright, twenty-something chairperson of the Young Unionists, Arlene
Foster was once talked of as a future UUP leader. She's now in the DUP.
"There is this 'Big House' unionist mentality in the UUP, a born-to-rule
attitude. They think people will vote for them regardless of what they do,"
says Foster.
"Someone senior in the UUP said of me, 'She speaks well for her own but
she's not one of us, she's so working class'. My father was a policeman, my
mother came from Sandy Row. I'm proud of my background. The fur-coat
brigade control the UUP and that's their downfall. There might still be
deference to them in rural areas but Belfast and working-class urban areas
are completely lost."
The UUP courts upwardly mobile, often apathetic unionists - the 'Garden
Centre Prods'. Comfortable households with two cars, two jobs and 1.2
children are wooed at the expense of working-class unionists. Ironically,
it's the DUP with its slick, professional image which is increasingly
attracting bourgeois voters while retaining its core support.
The loss of the personable Jeffrey Donaldson was symbolic. He was one of
the only UUP front-benchers many people liked. Donaldson is no
fundamentalist Protestant firebrand. He is the epitome of the traditional,
conservative unionist. If the DUP can attract him, it can attract virtually
any unionist. The UUP celebrates its centenary next year. It mightn't be
around in another decade.
