Our MLAs probably lie away at night mulling over who will get what. Paul
Murphy says a political settlement could be imminent. That might be a tad
optimistic but there's no doubting the inevitability of a deal, be it weeks
or months away.
So who will run Northern Ireland? A few days ago, I joined several other
journalists on the BBC's Politics Show to appoint our fantasy cabinet.
After some post-programme revisions, following consultation with those in
the know, a likely team is taking shape in my mind.
It must be stressed that, apart from the first two ministers, what follows
is conjecture. No-one definitely knows what the parties will do on the day.
If one guess is wrong, all after it will be wrong too.
Ian Paisley as First Minister is a dead cert. He'll love every minute of it.
Those civil-servants, with decades of too much power and too little
accountability, better watch out. Dr Paisley will shake up the whole
shebang.
Martin McGuinness is a safe bet for Deputy First Minister. Gerry Adams has
greater ambitions - the Irish presidency in 2011.
Peter Robinson will be the next DUP nomination. He'll opt for Finance and
Personnel. Some DUP-ers argue that Education should be their first choice.
It's an emotional issue for many unionists, dismayed the ministry fell to
Sinn Féin last time.
But that would be a politically immature choice. Finance and Personnel
controls every department's budget; the DUP knows its importance.
Sinn Féin's next nominee will be Mitchel McLaughlin. An increased profile
will be useful in the race for Mark Durkan's Westminster seat in Foyle.
He'll choose either Trade and Industry or Regional Development. The latter
has more power and a bigger budget. The transport element brings a
cross-Border dimension too. But McLaughlin could choose Trade.
A flurry of post-deal investment is likely and Sinn Féin would relish job
creation announcements. It's just what they need to convince the Southern
electorate they can be trusted with the economy and the days when they were
in the job destruction business are over.
The UUP will be next and its first nominee will surely be the loyal Michael
McGimpsey, not Sir Reg Empey. David Trimble himself won't take a ministry.
He isn't cut out to serve in an administration run by anyone else - let
alone Dr Paisley.
McGimpsey's personal choice would be Regional Development but he'll take
Education because of its symbolic significance. The SDLP follows next.
Mark Durkan will be torn between Regional Development and Health.
Health is a poisoned chalice but it's big budget and a real challenge to a
policy wonk like Durkan. He could make his mark there.
Back to the DUP: Nigel Dodds will take Regional Development if it's still
available. Sinn Féin has next pick and, ever conscious of the gender
balance, will nominate Catriona Ruane who needs to raise her profile for the
Westminster battle in South Down.
If it's available, she's likely to go for Social Development. It includes
responsibility for housing, important for a party with a strong urban,
working-class base. It's now the UUP's second go and Empey will be
nominated in the interests of internal party politics. He could choose the
Environment.
The DUP is next and Jeffrey Donaldson will be the nominee. If Agriculture's
still on the table, he'll grab it. The rural Protestant vote is
all-important. The DUP got grief for passing over this ministry last time
and has plenty of expert agricultural advisers.
The SDLP is next and it could well be Patricia Lewsley choosing Education
and Learning. That leaves Culture, Arts and Leisure for a DUP woman. For
the DUP not to include a woman in its five-strong ministerial team would
send out an appalling message, particularly when the women are all capable.
The DUP's problem is that it has so many able MLAs to choose from. Gregory
Campbell and Sammy Wilson are options, though Wilson will only be nominated
if Education is an option. Ian jnr is another possibility.
Sinn Féin and the DUP get a junior ministry each in the Office of First
Minister and Deputy First Minister. Sinn Féin is likely to choose Conor
Murphy, an up-and-coming MLA looking a raised profile for the Westminster
race in Newry and Armagh.
The DUP's choice could be Ian Paisley jnr or Arlene Foster if neither
secures a senior ministry. However, if Dr Paisley decided only to serve as
First Minister for a year or two, he could choose Robinson for this job,
positioning him perfectly to eventually take-over.
This would mean another DUP MLA in Cabinet who would otherwise be excluded.
All in all, it'll be fascinating. If Eastwoods open a book on the likely
Executive, expect a few politicians sneaking in with their tenners.
