"It's not quite the road to Damascus but the road to Dublin is a significant
journey for us," says a senior DUP figure on the Rev Ian Paisley meeting the
Taoiseach. 'Not an inch' has given way to a symbolic 100 miles.
Indeed, the joke in some circles is that DUP leaders have made so many
Dublin trips recently - Peter Robinson addressed the Small Firms'
Association's annual conference, Jeffrey Donaldson met Micheal McDowell -
that they should buy an apartment to enable over-night stays.
That would be rash - we're unlikely to see a DUP delegation swanning down
Grafton Street on an evening out - but this is a party in transition. "Our
travelling to Dublin should be a confidence-building gesture for
nationalists," says a DUP strategist. "We're showing we aren't inflexible
bigots. We're deadly serious about a deal. Ian likes Bertie. There's a
rapport there. They can do business."
The DUP found Thursday's meeting "forthright, good-natured and very useful". Over tea and ham-sandwiches, Paisley told the Taoiseach he accepted
North-South bodies but they must have clearly defined powers and be answerable to the Stormont Assembly. He wanted to be a "good neighbour" to
the Republic but cross-Border cooperation must have practical, not political, motivation.
The North is perhaps closer than ever to the prospect of long-term peace and
devolution, as opposed to those earlier, loudly trumpeted - but inherently
flawed and fragile - "historic agreements". The DUP wants to "bolt down"
what is reportedly on offer from the IRA. The Taoiseach promised Paisley
more work on that front over coming weeks.
The governments have told the DUP that, in the event of an overall
agreement, the IRA will decommission 50% of its arsenal within
weeks, publish a time-table for relinquishing its remaining arms, and have
disposed of everything by Christmas.
"We won't talk directly to Sinn Féin while the IRA exists so our information
comes from the governments' understanding of the IRA position from their
meetings with Sinn Féin," says a DUP strategist. "Of course, we have doubts.
There were no official note-takers at these meetings and there was no text
from the IRA.
"The governments could be spinning or be over-optimistic about what's on
offer. The DUP won't take anything on trust. Trimble went into government
with Sinn Féin on the basis of IRA words. We will wait until the IRA
decommissions fully and there has been a period to ascertain that all
paramilitary activity has ended. The IRA won't fool us. If they don't
deliver, Sinn Féin won't get into government."
Ordinary unionists are suspicious of the entire decommissioning process.
After the previous two rounds, details were so scant many believed nothing
was actually decommissioned and the authorities had colluded with the Provos
to fool them. This time, the DUP wants the chair of the international
decommissioning body, Gen John de Chastelain, to publish an inventory of the
weapons decommissioned. The DUP has been told that the IRA hasn't agreed to
this.
The DUP also wants 'a Steven Spielberg act of decommissioning', with
disarmament captured on film. This too has been rejected but, sources say,
the IRA has agreed to 'a Kodak moment', with photographs of the event. The
DUP wants these published - "otherwise they are pointless" - but the IRA
insists they must remain private.
The IRA would issue a final statement saying it was ending all military
activity. The language, unlike previous statements, would be clear and
unambiguous. It would be P O'Neill's last utterance. All future statements
would be solely from Sinn Féin. The IRA would continue as an old comrades
association.
The policing issue appears to be no problem, according to several sources.
Sinn Féin has signalled that, in the event of a deal, it would sit on the
Policing Board and support the Police Service of Northern Ireland. This
policy change would be referred to a special ard fheis but the leadership is
confident its position would be endorsed.
"This is critical for us," says a DUP source. "We couldn't go into
government with a party which didn't support the police." Policing and
justice powers will be transferred from Direct Rule ministers to local
politicians when devolution is restored.
However, the details of the new ministry will be left to the Assembly to
decide at some stage later on. "We can't have this ministry set up
immediately," says a DUP source. "If Sinn Féin secured it and Gerry Kelly
ended up Justice Minister, it would blow everything. Unionist grassroots
would never accept that so quickly."
Sinn Féin has down-played speculation of the huge compromises it's
reportedly preparing. Leaving Leeds Castle, Gerry Adams told a journalist
who asked about reports of IRA disbandment by Christmas to "send a letter to
Santa Claus". This was widely interpreted negatively, but not by the DUP.
"We weren't concerned by Adams' public rhetoric. We wouldn't expect anything
else," says a source.
The IRA appears willing to give the DUP far more than it ever offered
Trimble because it knows Paisley won't accept less and that he alone can
deliver a deal. Sinn Féin believes being back in government at Stormont will
help it take more SDLP votes in the North and, most importantly, convince
middle-class Southern voters of its respectable, responsible credentials.
The main impasse to a deal is the accountability of the Stormont
institutions. The Agreement allows ministers a wide degree of autonomy in
their departments. Major decisions don't have to be approved by their
Executive colleagues or the Assembly. The DUP wants the rules rewritten to
ensure all big decisions require Executive approval.
It's also proposing that if a minister flouts this procedure, Assembly
members can send a petition of concern to the Speaker. Anything frivolous or
vexatious would be rejected but the Speaker would refer legitimate concerns
to the Assembly.
Nationalists claim this is majority rule by the back door. "The DUP wants to
ensure a Sinn Féin minister can't buy a paper-clip without answering to the
Assembly," says a Sinn Féin figure. A Government source states: "The DUP
must accept nationalist ministers have a right to make decisions which the
DUP doesn't like but will just have to live with."
The DUP defends its position: "Under the Agreement, the four main parties
comprise the government so there is no opposition at Stormont as in normal
parliaments. Therefore, we need strict accountability measures. The DUP will
have five ministers in the Executive - more than any other party - and
rigorous accountability will apply to them too."
The accountability of ministers and the North-South bodies is a fundamental
issue. Nationalists crave fluidity and the opportunity for organic growth
which they can argue will eventually lead to Irish unity. Unionists want a
settlement, not an endless process they fear will mean the death of the
Union by 1,000 cuts. They need sovereignty firmly rooted in a six-county
Assembly with no capacity to expand cross-Border bodies or individual
ministerial roles.
A DUP strategist claims his party wouldn't deliberately obstruct Sinn Féin
in any new administration: "With the IRA out of the way, we wouldn't trip
up Sinn Féin ministers for the sake of it. We would challenge them only if
it was justified. Whether we like it or not, Sinn Féin is supported by the
majority of nationalists and that won't change. There will be no
resurrection for the SDLP.
"If we don't have a Fenian about the place, we won't get power. If we
constantly obstruct Sinn Féin, the whole set-up will collapse. Most
ordinary unionists and nationalists no longer have faith in devolution. They
don't believe the Assembly and Executive worked for them. They couldn't care
less whether the institutions are restored. They're bored with the talks.
"To overcome that apathy, devolution must deliver. It can't just be about
108 Assembly members and their hangers-on. We must ensure better education
and healthcare. The DUP and Sinn Féin have similar profiles. We're both
supported by working-class people trying to get on in life."
The DUP doesn't like or trust Sinn Féin but it lacks the contempt for the
party that it has for the SDLP and UUP. A source describes its relationship
with the SDLP as frustrating and pointless: "We had a three-hour meeting
with Mark Durkan and there is absolutely no point in doing so again.
"He is determined every dot and comma of the Agreement will remain. The SDLP
are the new DUP. They're far more intransigent than us. Sinn Féin would
probably be more flexible and realistic."
A senior SDLP figure attributes his party's hardline stance to its emotional
attachment to the Agreement: "This is our baby - we negotiated it, Sinn Féin
didn't." Another SDLP figure acknowledges his party is positioning itself
for its next election battle with Sinn Féin.
"The British will probably do a deal with the DUP and ignore us but at least
we can say we battled for our principles. Sinn Féin and the DUP are
power-crazy. The DUP wants a deal and Sinn Féin will do anything to get back
into office," he says.
The Government was initially stunned by the SDLP's hardline position, a
source admits: "It was thought Mark Durkan had gone mad. But his stance has
energised the SDLP internally. Its Assembly members are saying, 'He's
finally found an issue, he's woken up'." However, the SDLP's new toughness
is unlikely to cut ice with nationalist voters at the next election.
Under the Agreement, the First Minister and Deputy First Minister are
elected together. The DUP wants them nominated separately in order to save
its blushes at being elected along with Sinn Féin. The SDLP opposes this
alteration but the governments are likely to grant it.
There has been a presumption that Peter Robinson would be the DUP's choice
as First Minister but it could well be Paisley. "It would be a nice way for
Ian to end his career," says an insider. "He'd give all those
civil-servants, who have amassed huge egos from ruling unaccountably over us
for years, their comeuppance. There is no better man to shake up the system.
Rules and regulations go out the window when Ian's around."
During the Leeds Castle talks, the Paisley charm disarmed Tony Blair. "The
PM was probably terrified of meeting him," says an Assembly member. "People
have a one-dimensional view of Ian but most of the time he doesn't shout at
all.
"There was no ranting and raving at Blair. Ian took a personal approach. He
spoke emotionally about how he had nothing against Catholics and had played
with them as a boy. Blair appeared moved. He talked about childhood summers
with his granny in Donegal. It wasn't the kind of meeting anyone expected."
DUP-UUP relations remain frosty. The Leeds Castle negotiations were due to
break up at midday on Saturday. At 11.10 a.m., Trimble asked for his sole
meeting with the DUP. "You've left it to the 59th minute of the eleventh
hour," Paisley told him.
The DUP held court in the Queen's Gallery, an opulent room originally part
of the Northern Secretary's suite. Peter Robinson had threatened they'd
return to their hotel after initially being allocated a "cold, dark,
depressing room".
When Trimble and his team arrived for the meeting, a huge DUP contingent was
present. "We perched on window sills, and stretched out on chaises long,"
says one. "There were no pleasantries or handshakes. Dr Paisley just invited
Trimble to sit down and asked what he wanted."
The unionist parties positions are very different. Much to the amusement of
the SDLP and the Government, the UUP defends the Agreement like never
before. "Meeting the UUP is like meeting ourselves," says an SDLP
politician. "They talk about protecting the Agreement's integrity and
ensuring a spirit of partnership. It's amazing."
Nationalists believe the UUP just wants to thwart the DUP by "ganging up"
with the other parties against it. The DUP retaliates whenever possible.
At Leeds Castle, their rivals' dining habits were closely monitored. When
UUP MP, Lady Sylvia Hermon, joined Sinn Féin's Pat Doherty alone at a table,
DUP delegates took it in turns to walk by, taking photos from their mobile
phones. "Well we can't always be grown up," one admits.
The governments are preparing to publish their proposals on the way forward
which will involve some changes to the Stormont institutions. The DUP is
excited; nationalist parties are concerned.
Many observers believe the DUP and Sinn Féin won't reach a deal until after
next year's Westminster election, when they have further demolished the UUP
and SDLP respectively. They are only posturing now, eager to appear
reasonable and statesmanlike for the blame game. Sinn Féin denies this. So
does the DUP. "The right time is the right deal, the right deal is the right
time," a source says.
But the 'pressure cooker' environment that delivered compromises from
Trimble at key moments, isn't one the DUP responds to. At 11 p.m. on Friday
at Leeds Castle, the British sent away the cars that had waited outside all
day to ferry the parties back to their hotels. Drivers were told not to
return to 5 a.m.
"The Brits tried to bounce us into a deal that Blair would have been able to
take triumphantly to the Labour conference," says a delegate. UK Unionist
leader, Bob McCartney, feared the DUP would capitulate. He confronted
Jeffrey Donaldson and Ian Paisley jnr at the top of the stairs.
"You people mustn't get sucked into an all-night session. You'll make fools
of yourselves like Trimble did," he said. Donaldson didn't want a public
argument. He spotted Sinn Féin's Catriona Ruane advancing along the
corridor. The Irish and UUP delegations in the hallway below were looking
up.
"No-one is being sucked into anything. Calm down Bob," Donaldson said.
McCartney was incensed. "I was negotiating when you were in nappies," he
retorted. "Who are you to tell me to calm down?" "I'm an MP," said
Donaldson. McCartney lost his seat at the last election.
But the UK Unionist leader needn't have worried. The DUP had independently
taken their drivers' phone numbers and rang to request the cars pick them
up. Blair's hothouse marathon session never materialised. "We want a
settlement that will last generations, not something cobbled together which
disintegrates at the first obstacle," says a prominent DUP figure.
The DUP strongly denies rumours it's split into anti-deal Paisley and
pro-deal Robinson wings. "Nonsense," says a senior source on reports party
delegates refused to eat together at Leeds Castle. "We sat separately
because there were 16 of us - far too many for one table." He denies any
likely deal would divide the party: "We wouldn't lose one MP or Assembly
member. A few councillors - a handful of head-bangers - resigning would be
the height of it."
On the last night of the Leeds Castle talks, Paisley entered the dining
room. The lights were dimmed. He spotted a gentleman standing by a table.
"Young man, will dinner be served soon?" he enquired. It was Sinn Féin's
Gerry Kelly. Paisley hadn't recognised him. But his wife Eileen had and
pulled her husband back. Chatting to Sinn Féin is something Paisley won't
countenance until the IRA disappears. The Big Man's final journey mightn't
be that far away.
