Does David Trimble have a death wish? His wife Daphne's plan to contest
Lagan Valley could well be personal and political suicide. It must be one of
the most foolish decisions ever made in Northern Ireland politics.
Trimble is a very clever man but he has absolutely no common sense. To say
he is out of touch with ordinary people is the under-statement of the year.
Daphne has as much a chance of becoming Lagan Valley MP as the Rev Ian
Paisley has of being the next Pope.
That the leader of the UUP doesn't know that illustrates exactly why the
party is in its present mess. Has Trimble learned nothing from the last
three elections? Is he so arrogant that he doesn't realise the message the
electorate keeps sending his party?
In the 2001 Westminster election, Jeffrey Donaldson won almost 26,000 votes
- 57% of the poll. As the most outspoken, anti-Agreement UUP MP, he
was in tune with the mood on the ground.
The DUP has not "stolen" the seat. Donaldson's opposition to the Belfast
Agreement has been crystal clear from day one. The people of Lagan Valley
aren't stupid. They knew exactly what they were voting for.
"It's traditionally an Ulster Unionist seat and the people have always been
represented by Ulster Unionists," says Daphne. That sort of thinking belongs
in the past. There is no such thing anymore as a safe Ulster Unionist seat.
What constituency could have been more traditional UUP territory than
Strangford?
Based on the combined DUP and UUP anti-Agreement vote in last year's
Assembly elections, Donaldson should have no problem polling over 20,000
votes. The best Daphne can hope for is 10,000.
A two-to-one trouncing would be massively embarrassing for the UUP leader
who is already facing a major battle to retain his own Westminster seat.
Would it not have been smarter to focus all his resources on Upper Bann?
Instead, he has chosen to raise the stakes unnecessarily. The electoral
defeat of both Trimbles would be hugely humiliating.
The DUP's David Simpson is no rank outsider in Upper Bann. He shocked the
media by going so close in 2001 and is capable of delivering a major
surprise next time. We under-estimate him at our peril.
He isn't yet well known across Northern Ireland but he will be. He is an
affable, intelligent man and a great TV performer. Trimble was rescued last
time by traditional SDLP and Alliance voters who believed his re-election
was crucial to saving the Agreement.
That motivation no longer exists. It will be a very, very tight race with
Banbridge crucial. If Simpson wins there he will take the seat. By
encouraging his wife to run in Lagan Valley, Trimble is foolishly letting
his personal feelings for Donaldson prevail over reason.
"This is pure DT and manna for Jeffrey," says an observer. Certainly, the
DUP couldn't hide their smiles. "Try and keep your face straight now," said
a smirking Peter Robinson as Donaldson faced the cameras after Daphne's
statement. "Peter hasn't grinned so much in years," joked a DUP insider.
I don't know Daphne but everyone who does says she is a lovely woman. Unlike
her husband, she possesses people skills and is never abrupt. She is no
dumb political wife. She is bright and to the left of her husband. "At
Queen's, she flirted with the Alliance Party. She is soft UUP. Certainly,
she would never have marched hand-in-hand with Paisley at Drumcree," says
one unionist politician.
When Donaldson defected to the DUP, his former colleagues predicted his
demise. He would soon be small fry, over-shadowed by the DUP big fish. That
hasn't happened and, ironically, Daphne's candidature will ensure he is bang
in the spotlight for the election.
Most importantly, his last battle with Trimble will be the one Donaldson
wins. His old boss obviously still harbours immense resentment towards him.
In pop psychology terms, the UUP leader would be well advised to let go.
