For the most part, stop-start government has been the hallmark of this
Assembly. In fact it was only with the devolution of policing and justice
last year that functional government began.
Accordingly, apart from a few weather-induced crises (roads, water mains and
housing), voters have scant record upon which to judge the current Stormont
administration.
Serious cuts have yet to hit home, and in any case it is hard to source the
blame anywhere other than in Westminster and Whitehall from whence most of
them have come.
If not much has happened, then it is hard to work out what is likely to have
swung voters' minds between the last election in 2007 and now.
In fact, the predominant emotion amongst voters this time is likely to be
apathy. Voter turnout should continue to follow its downward trend.
Nevertheless, going into this election the Ulster Unionists probably have
more to worry them than most parties. Despite having won eighteen seats last
time out, splits and local selection procedures mean they are down two MLAs
going into this election, neither of whose seats are likely to come back to
them.
The party will need to make gains in other areas just to keep still.
The UUP's difficulty could be the SDLP's opportunity, who retain an upper
hand within nationalism's gradual advance into unionist heartlands. Just a
few gains could see them take another seat in the next Executive.
Speaking of extra Ministerial seats, Alliance just need two more seats to
put them in the running for another departmental position, to go along with
the Justice portfolio.
Having been so successful in 2007 both Sinn Féin and the DUP will struggle
to make serious gains this time out. Yet, just two more MLAs would earn Sinn
Féin the same kind of veto DUP used to quash Dawn Purvis' double jobbing
bill.
Despite the St Andrews' rule change, that means that the largest party,
rather than the largest community, gets to choose First Minister.
Both Sinn Féin and the DUP are trying to play it down public, but it is bound to
have some kind of an effect, if only a marginal one. However great or small,
it is unlikely to favour the ambitions of either of the two smaller parties.
For more dramatic stories, on Slugger we'll be looking to boundary changes
and the council elections to provide the prime cuts in these elections.
Council elections had been slated for 2009, but were postponed pending
reform (and a nice pay off for aging councillors). Courtesy of that
immobilising stand-off over policing and justice between Sinn Féin and the
DUP, that reform package has yet to arrive.
So in fact the last local elections were held in 2005: an annus
horribilis for Sinn Féin. Accordingly the St Andrews feel good factor,
evident in the
last Assembly elections, has still to be seen in terms of seat gains for
that party.
When you factor in significant boundary changes we could, for instance, be
looking at Belfast city council returning a majority nationalist
representation for the first time in its history.
The council results will also tell us something about the ongoing health of
the parties. All face the problem of ageing representatives, and the
councils will be a chance to bring on new blood.
So don't expect the earth to move on May 5th. But given where we've just
come from, that's probably the best news we can expect this early in the
life of our new democratic institutions.
