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ireland, irish, ulster, ireland, irish, ulster, Sinn Féin, Irish America

A very mediocre result for Sinn Féin

(Suzanne Breen, Irish Daily Mail)

His intervention in the Frontline debate – his supporters would argue – changed the course of the presidential election.

But Martin McGuinness's vote certainly wasn't a great result for Sinn Féin. He has significantly upped the party's profile.

A four per cent increase in support since February's general election is something for Sinn Féin to celebrate. And the party made inroads in constituencies which previously proved inhospitable territory.

When asked during the campaign about his chances of securing the presidency, McGuinness said he was "in it to win it". Privately, even the most optimistic Shinner admitted that was unlikely.

But the party will be disappointed that McGuinness didn't come second and that Sean Gallagher, a second rank Fianna Fáiler, polled over twice as many votes as their man.

One of Sinn Féin's main objectives was to mop up the disillusioned Fianna Fáil vote. The fact that so many Fianna Fáil supporters stayed with Gallagher – despite the body blow McGuinness dealt him on the RTE programme – shows the Fianna Fáil base is proving more hard to shift than Sinn Féin hoped.

Never was there a better chance for Sinn Féin's star to shine than in this presidential election. Martin McGuinness's faced a very weak field. He has a charming, easy, and engaging manner compared to Gerry Adams. On the campaign trail, people liked him.

His national and international profile put him on a different level to his presidential rivals. Unlike so many other parties, Sinn Féin is untainted by the banking scandal and allegations of corruption that have damaged the main parties.

McGuinness could portray himself as an anti-establishment candidate – but not so anti-establishment as to frighten off the middle-of-the-road voter Sinn Féin is so keen to woo.

Some observers have suggested the party would have been better standing a younger, Southern candidate without any IRA baggage. But none had the necessary gravitas to be a presidential contender.

Sinn Féin made the right choice in sending down its big gun from the North. And let nobody say that the party hasn't changed. At every twist and turn of the campaign, McGuinness proved more than willing to abandon the traditional republican principles he once professed to hold so dear.

The Irish Army, not the IRA, were the legitimate Oglaigh na hEireann, he proclaimed. Yes, he agreed, some Provo attacks were murder. Who would have thought the man who ran the IRA's war for decades would ever make a statement like that?

And in terms of moving away from his republican past what greater gesture could he have made than saying he would meet Prince Charles, colonel-in-chief of the Parachute Regiment which shot dead 14 unarmed civilians in McGuinness's native Derry in 1972.

Nor would he have had a problem greeting Prince Charles' mother, Queen Elizabeth, who pinned medals on the chests of the paratroopers responsible for the Bloody Sunday slaughter.

Contrary to what some right-wing commentators suggest, Sinn Féin is no longer the dangerously radical and uncompromising party it once was. It doesn't want to overthrow the Southern state.

Yet there's no doubt that McGuinness's IRA past harmed him. "It's not an issue on the doorsteps," he'd say and then another bereaved victim of the Provos would appear and tell the story of their loved one's murder.

Just like Gerry Adams before him, he proved incapable of telling the truth about his IRA history and looked shifty and uncomfortable when pressed for detail on it.

Up North, the media generally give Sinn Féin an easy ride. The overwhelming desire is to not unsettle the peace process by asking awkward questions. The Southern media showed less restraint and McGuinness's encounter with Miriam O'Callaghan, among others, showed the party doesn't take scrutiny well.

While Sinn Féin is certainly no longer a bit player in Southern politics, it still hasn't made the inroads it craves. When McGuinness entered the race, opinion polls put him on 16% – almost exactly where he ended up.

Given that David Norris, Dana, and Sean Gallagher were so compromised during the campaign, the fact that the electorate overwhelmingly preferred the frail Michael D Higgins to the robust and energetic Martin McGuinness shows Sinn Féin's continuing failure to inspire Southern voters.

The Sinn Féin politician's decision to contest the presidential election will lead to him being seen in a new light when he returns North. Unlike Gerry Adams who always preferred a grand statesmanlike role, McGuinness did roll up his sleeves and graft at Stormont as Deputy First Minister.

Now his true commitment to that job is in question. He will take up the reins again and undoubtedly perform as ably as before. But his unionist and nationalist colleagues know that the North is not where McGuinness's heart, nor his party's ambitions, lie.

It's taking power in the South and securing the huge electoral victory there that Sinn Féin is dreaming of. And judging by this result, they are a very long way off achieving that.

October 30, 2011
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This article appeared in the October 29, 2011 edition of the Irish Daily Mail.

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