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Naomi Long is a class act but she faces an uphill battle to hold East Belfast

(Suzanne Breen, Sunday Life)

Once famed as mild, moderate and – let's face it – boring, the Alliance Party is a very different creature in this election. Naomi Long's canvass kicks off literally in Peter Robinson's back yard.

The DUP leader's house sits at the bottom of the street where the Alliance team swings into action in its energetic campaign to save its East Belfast seat.

Naomi reckons there's no point canvassing Peter's place as he's a definite 'no'. "I don't think he'd let us in anyway, we'd have to get over that big fence first," jokes husband Michael.

Five years ago, Alliance ended Peter Robinson's 31-year reign as king of East Belfast. To say he took it personally seems an understatement. 'Pack your bags' and 'Dry your tears and go' he has sniped at Naomi.

Not that DUP candidate, Gavin Robinson, would repeat such remarks. He's a nice guy and, anyway, he must be as inoffensive as possible in order to hoover up UUP votes.

So far Peter Robinson hasn't been spotted canvassing with the candidate whose career he has nurtured. If he played a prominent part, he could lose Gavin votes.

But David Ford isn't so low-profile. He's leading the charge up and down Dundonald's hilly streets. 'Apparently, I'm not toxic!" he jokes.

This is a wealthy part of the constituency. Many driveways boast three cars. It's traditional DUP territory but Naomi is still well received. "You've stayed true to what you believe even though they tried to bomb your office," a woman says.

A male pensioner declares, "The days of voting to keep the other side out are over. I'm with you all the way!" Another household wants to vote Alliance but they're not registered. Forms are swiftly handed over.

Registering new voters and galvanising those who admire what she's doing, but usually don't vote, is instrumental. Naomi's appealing especially to female and young voters irked by a unionist pact "negotiated by old men in dark rooms".

She's the star turn on the canvass. At one house, they complain when it's husband Michael at the door and not the MP herself. "Go and say hello to them. They don't want the second pickings!" he tells his wife.

Contrary to the image that Alliance has been chased from working-class loyalist areas, they've met no aggression canvassing, she says. Although, she jokes, one DUP supporter in Sydenham displayed a hand-painted sign outside his house announcing, 'Alliance Keep Out'.

Naomi herself is from a solid working-class background. She was reared just off Mersey Street, the daughter of a shipyard worker. "I want more for those people," she says.

"It's not about flags and distraction politics. It's about the stuff that really matters – why they have to go to food banks to feed their families.

Tell her she'll lose her seat – that given the unionist pact, the numbers just don't add up for her – and she'll tell you that by "winning hearts and minds", she can overcome the odds.

"But either way, I won't be crying and I won't be packing my bags and leaving East Belfast," she says defiantly.

Canvassing in Dundonald's Old Mill Heights, Gavin Robinson gets a warm welcome on the doorsteps. He's offered toffees and wine gums by one elderly couple thrilled to see him.

Post-pact, this election is his to lose. So far, his campaign – just like his time as Belfast Lord Mayor – has been gaffe-free. Still, considerable pressure lies on his young shoulders and he wears it well.

He's not in the slightest cocky yet his campaign oozes confidence. "There were many issues when we lost the seat," he says. "I don't get any sense those issues are at play today.

"And, let's remember in 2011, the DUP recovered. We came home with (5,000) more votes than Alliance. People are confident that the DUP can deliver and they trust us.

"Peter Robinson has been incredibly supportive of me, he's been encouraging, he's given advice. Peter Robinson and I share the same passion for East Belfast and we know how we can make East Belfast work."

The flags' issue has massively boosted the DUP campaign. One man who greets Gavin like a long-lost son, says: "Naomi's no chance. To me, she's not a person who represents people around here. She's always putting unionists down and joining with the Shinners."

At another house, Gavin chats to teenagers at Grosvenor Grammar, his old school. He's promised the parents' votes but he doesn't go down quite so well with Lucy the Shih Tzu.

"Lucy, behave, let Gavin keep his fingers!" the dog's owner says. "I'm so sorry, Gavin, she just doesn't like men. She'd be fine with Naomi. But don't worry – the rest of this house is behind you."

Analysis: Even her opponents must admit that Naomi Long is a class act. She's taken three years of relentless pressure from flag protestors and never once wavered, and she won't go down without a fight now.

A young barrister, Gavin Robinson is able and articulate. Yet in every public debate, Naomi has came out way ahead. Whereas he's evasive, she's always nails her colours to the mast.

Gavin isn't Gregory. "Curry my yogurt," aren't words likely to pass his lips. He's not a member of the DUP's fundamentalist wing. And his personal reasonableness is reinforced by a well-rehearsed political script ensuring he's all things to all people.

Without the unionist pact, it would be an even contest. But with neither the UUP nor TUV standing – they took a combined 27% of the vote in 2010 – it's almost impossible to see Gavin losing.

While some moderate UUP voters will support Naomi, more are likely to opt for a progressive DUP candidate.

Alliance will take many Sinn Féin and SDLP votes, and previous non-voting liberal unionists will turn out to support their MP. But I still can't see that being enough to save the seat for Naomi.

April 27, 2015
________________

This article appeared in the April 26, 2015 edition of the Sunday Life.

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