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ireland, irish, ulster, ireland, irish, ulster, Sinn Féin, Irish America

It's a tight fight for Fermanagh and South Tyrone but Sinn Féin has the edge

(Suzanne Breen, Sunday Life)

The last time Michelle Gildernew fought a Westminster election against Tom Elliott, she was seven months' pregnant. "It was a physically tough campaign but this one is much harder for me," she says.

The presence of Arlene Foster meant Michelle romped home 10,000 votes ahead of Tom in 2001. This time, with the UUP man the only unionist in the race, it's neck-and-neck.

The seat, so famously won by Bobby Sands, is highly symbolic for Sinn Féin. On the doorsteps of Dungannon, Michelle stresses the political differences between herself and Tom.

"He's an ex-grand master of the Orange Order, he's an ex-UDR man," she tells a woman in The Willows. "He has said he wouldn't set foot in a GAA ground or attend a gay pride event. You couldn't put the words 'Tom Elliott' and 'moderate' in the same sentence."

At another door, she says: "The UUP, DUP, UKIP, TUV, and the Tory millionaires in London have all combined to try to take the seat from me. Every vote counts. I held this seat by just four votes in 2010. So think of that and think of my blood pressure!"

In nationalist Dalriada Park, she doesn't have to do much convincing. "We need to win the seat more than ever," says Mary Cassidy. Husband Sean gives Michelle a huge hug and she's asked in for tea. If she accepted every similar invitation made, she'd be in the street until election day.

Mickey Corrigan promises his vote: "It's a hard battle but you'll come through, Michelle. You've been here from the start and I couldn't care less that you don't go to Westminster. We want a united Ireland."

Anna from Latvia, who lives in Dungannon with her four children and calls it home, also pledges support. "Sinn Féin has stood up for people like me," she says.

As a working mother of three, Michelle's car reflects her hectic lifestyle. Rollers (worn when she's on the move), a change of clothes, and her son's homework book – "the wee skitter hasn't done it yet" – are piled on top of her election literature.

On the campaign trail, Michelle is warm, friendly and down-to-earth with a wicked sense of humour. She reckons the Sunday Life photographer looks like Jamie Dornan "and no I haven't seen 50 Shades of Grey just The Fall," she laughs.

The other day, she teased a Sinn Féin councillor that he'd borrowed his pin-striped suit from Ian Paisley jnr. And another party councillor was described as an extremely hard worker "and easy on the eye". "I think Martin McGuinness might have huffed because I didn't say it about him!" she jokes.

In the unionist village of Killyman, just outside Dungannon, Tom Elliott doesn't have to ask for votes. "I want rid of yer woman," one man tells him but warns: "I'm still keeping an eye on you boys. I hope you're not licking around Sinn Féin in the councils."

At another house, the unionist unity candidate is told: "Of course, we're supporting you. There's no point in an MP who doesn't take her seat." One voter, shaking Tom's hand strenuously, says: "I see you on TV, you're doing a great job." And another man toots his car horn and shouts 'Keep her lit, Tom!"

Everybody recognises the candidate. Unlike the other night, when a voter thought he was Edwin Poots. "Even with a unionist pact, I'd still prefer not to be mistaken for Edwin!" Tom jokes.

He's putting his all into this campaign – up at 6.30am and not home until 11pm. "It's a labour of love," he says. "And when I'm tired I remember the words of my late father if I ever complained about a hard day on the farm, 'Nobody forced it on you.'"

While Tom's 12-year-old daughter Chloe says she'll die of embarrassment if he canvasses near her school, his nine-year-old son Adam wants collected in the election van.

On the campaign trail, the UUP man is happy to roll up his sleeves and assist anyone who asks. In Lisbellaw, he helps a woman move a sooty fireplace. In Ballinamallard, he mows the lawn for a man who's had a heart by-pass.

Tom is every inch a straight-talking countryman. A farmer first and a politician second. There isn't a trace of ego about him. "This election is very tight but I relish the challenge. I'm not nervous. I'm a relaxed person who takes life as it comes."

He's "immensely proud" of his UDR years on which Sinn Féin focuses. "The IRA brutally murdered citizens of this community, shot them at point-blank range and blew them up," he says. "Many in Michelle Gildernew's party then considered people like me legitimate targets."

Analysis: It's now or never for unionists in Fermanagh and South Tyrone. If Tom Elliott doesn't regain the seat this time, it's nationalists to keep long-term.

It's an incredibly close race yet I reckon Sinn Féin has the edge. In elections over the past decade, the nationalist vote in the constituency stands at around 52% – a small, but still significant, majority.

And there's been a drift to Sinn Féin. The SDLP vote halved at the 2010 Westminster election and this time the party is running John Coyle, a far weaker candidate. That does Tom Elliott no favours.

The Sinn Féin team on the ground is impressive and the party machine will be in over-drive to get the vote out on May 7th.

Sinn Féin has lost some support from disillusioned traditional republicans in the constituency but this has been easily off-set by young first-time voters.

Michelle Gildernew is also a strong, popular candidate. In a party whose politicians are too often robotic, she has a personality and she's not afraid to show it.

She says she'll get votes from liberal unionists and Tom Elliott says some SDLP supporters will lend him their vote. I struggle to see either scenario.

This will be a straight sectarian headcount and I predict Fermanagh and South Tyrone will stay green.

April 30, 2015
________________

This article appeared in the April 26, 2015 edition of the Sunday Life.

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