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Robinson rule set to be restored in East Belfast as DUP played Long game

(Suzanne Breen, Sunday Life)

If we believe the bookies, in five short days Robinson rule will be restored in East Belfast.

The candidate might be Gavin but the real winner will be Peter who so famously lost the DUP crown jewels last time round.

Gavin is an unbackable 1/10 shot, and not without reason. Naomi Long's fate was most likely sealed when people were whipped into a frenzy for the flags' protests.

This was nothing to do with principle, and everything to do with pragmatic politics. But it says something of the formidable fight the DUP knew she would wage that they still felt the need for a pact.

Gavin Robinson has done all that's required of him during the campaign – he's played it safe and hasn't dropped the ball.

Privately, the DUP is worried about Upper Bann and South Antrim. In the latter, the key question is how many votes the TUV takes from the Rev William McCrea, and whether Danny Kinahan's efforts pay off.

In Upper Bann, the DUP is hoping that the spectre of Sinn Féin's Catherine Seeley snatching the seat, amidst an evenly split unionist vote, will be enough to keep David Simpson safe from Jo-anne Dobson. There could barely be a whisker between these three candidates.

South Belfast is equally fascinating. The DUP's Jonathan Bell has fought an energetic campaign and is highly affable on the doorsteps.

The danger he poses to Alasdair McDonnell's seat shouldn't be under-estimated. Bell will be hoping that Jim Wells' reactionary comments don't cost him crucial votes.

I think Michelle Gildernew will retain Fermanagh and South Tyrone despite the unionist pact. Apart from that seat, Sinn Féin's under no pressure. But the SDLP vote could fall further in many constituencies.

Don't be surprised if there's a strong showing for People Before Profit's Gerry Carroll in West Belfast. He has his eye on taking Alex Attwood's seat in next year's Assembly elections.

But back to the east of the city. In 2010, Peter Robinson congratulated Naomi Long with THAT kiss. For both parties, it looked like one of the most uncomfortable exchanges ever captured on camera.

So, regardless of the result, I asked Naomi if another kiss was likely on Friday. "I hope not," she laughed. "That was a once in a lifetime opportunity for both of us and I'm sure neither of us would want to repeat it!"

May 6, 2015
________________

This article appeared in the May 3, 2015 edition of the Sunday Life.

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