There's a painting, The Secret of England's Greatness, which people in 19th century Britain used to set great store by. Orangemen naturally still cling to it: versions appear on some lodges' banners. It depicted Queen Victoria handing a bible to a scantily clad and suitably awed African chief bowing in obeisance. Other figures from various parts of the British empire dressed in improbable costumes look on with due reverence, the implication being that the African guy will be sanitised like them now that he's accepted Christianity. Maybe some day there'll be a similar portrayal of events inside Hillsborough yesterday (Tuesday) as Tony Blair presented his formerly dangerous tribesmen to the ruler of the world's most powerful ever empire.
As it says in the Book of Samuel, 'How are the mighty fallen'. Did you ever think you'd see the day when Gerry Adams would be a spear-carrier stage left, opposite David Trimble at a pantomime? Still, with Tony Blair playing a cross between Dandini and Buttons what surprises are left? The only difficulty with the tableau is that there's no pantomime with a main character as vacuous as George W Bush. Just count your blessings the show only ran for two days.
Now that it's over we can return to our own simple pas de deux between Sinn Féin and the Ulster Unionists. It's been running for nearly as long as The Mousetrap in London. Both shows are similar in that even though everyone knew the plot and whodunit, audiences still kept turning up to watch and applaud at the same places.
You know what's supposed to happen here too. The Irish and British governments will issue a joint document tomorrow with annexes they have agreed between themselves because SF and the UUP couldn't agree on them. How many joint declarations is that since 1993? As usual the parties will be told to take it or leave it. As usual they will do exactly as they please since neither government can force them to do anything their electorates won't endorse.
The IRA will issue a statement extending its ceasefire with the effect that the army will become inactive. They will re-engage with General de Chastelain and arrange to dispose of the big dumps of 17-year-old weaponry. Unionists are supposed to be so impressed with these actions that they will call a meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council on April 26 and agree to go into a new assembly elected on May 29. The currently suspended assembly will be formally dissolved on 28 April and the election campaign will begin.
All this may well happen. What happens after that is the problem. David Trimble's weak, indecisive leadership of the UUP has split his party down the middle, a split which will be confirmed on 26 April. If Trimble wins a vote at the UUC by anything less than 60 per cent against 40 per cent his divided party will go into the election with senior candidates opposing tomorrow's declaration. A divided party will lose a number of seats to the DUP. In the last assembly election Trimble got 21per cent of the vote to the DUP's 18 per cent. Do you think the UUP's position is stronger now than then? Of course not.
It's further weakened by the fact that there will be a fifth column within the new assembly party of up to seven MLAs, including MPs Jeffrey Donaldson and David Burnside, who will not support the election of an executive with Sinn Féin ministers in it. Combining with the DUP, they will ensure that on votes which require cross-community consent David Trimble cannot deliver unionist consent. Both governments choose to ignore this reality, preferring to pretend there may be a different election result. There may be: but if there is, it will be even worse for the UUP.
Furthermore, since it will look as if Sinn Féin have scored nine out of 10 in tomorrow's documents, the UUP will be extremely unlikely to promise before an election to get into bed with SF afterwards. How then will you tell their election campaign from the DUP's?
UUP dissidents and the DUP are placing their hopes on the review of the agreement which must take place in September under paragraph eight of the validation and implementation section. This means that there will be no executive established before September. Why should they commit themselves to something in June they hope to change three months later?
So, what's the betting on another trip to Hillsborough in December on the 10th anniversary of the Downing Street Declaration for a performance of our version of Cinderella? It's got everything: a deadline, ugly sisters, Mark Durkan as Buttons. Question. Who will be the prince and who will be Cinderella? Is Jeffrey's foot small enough for the glass slipper?
