The present crisis in unionism is a pseudo crisis. It is essentially a leadership struggle based on an opportunistic grabbing of pretexts to damage the UUP leader. David Trimbleís rivals hit on an old 'Dublin interference' but Dublin's support remains vital in ensuring republicans move from an 'armed struggle' mindset. Monitoring is not interference but an enabling device. Trimble knows the Good Friday Agreement is good for the Union but the IRA's relative inaction presented dissidents with an opportunity to create mischief. They feared the IRA might do what they promised - decommission in a way that promotes public confidence - and get the institutions up and stabilised. That would demonstrate the wisdom of Trimble's strategy and the shallowness of his opponents - the final nail in the coffin of stupid unionism.
The 'No' people demand re-negotiation of an agreement that their chief spokesman negotiated. They know this is virtually impossible but, in the power struggle context, they don't care and must be disciplined. Bridges crossed at the time of the agreement could now prove unbridgeable because of the distrust fomented by the No-men who provoked primeval fears.
The options being presented are wholesale acceptance or complete rejection of the agreement but there is an alternative, a comprehensive review. The most important issue is the alienation of sections of the unionist community for which republicans bear a major responsibility. The anti-agreement minority should find a way to save face and come on board so that the potential in the agreement can be realised. Another glaring issue is the absence of a sense of collective responsibility among members of the Executive. The 50% + one formula for Irish unity is a big turn off, if not threat, to unionists. It contravenes Article 3 of the Irish Constitution, which presents unity as an aspiration to be realised through "harmony and friendship", in line with Gerry Adams' insistence on the need for unionist"consent and assent". The 50%+ one formula is hardly harmonious and friendly, but rather a recipe for chaos.
It was for this reason that John O'Connell, SDLP member and author of Love is the Answer: The SDLP, Christianity and the Northern Ireland Conflict called for repartition to be "taken on board" and blames the crisis on "republican bravado".
In contrast, the republican notion that the agreement is inexorably moving towards Irish unity is insulting and unhelpful because it is based upon the mistaken notion that there is no other option. Unity is not seen as a choice to be taken but rather as something mystical, romantic and inevitable. Simon Partridge, a London based political analyst specialising in British-Irish relations to include the regions of England, accepts that the agreement is a "stepping stone" but not to Irish unity, towards a quasi-federal relationship between our islands that holds no terrors for the people of Ireland.
O'Connell advocated repartition primarily to draw attention to the reality that any failure to take unionist concerns seriously leads us in dangerous directions. Stephen Plowden in contrast promotes the idea that we should build upon the idea that people in Northern Ireland live in two states simultaneously. Robin Bury chairman of the Dublin-based Reform Group rightly insists that Ireland is already closely linked to the United Kingdom socially, culturally and economically.
The precise future configuration of these islands cannot be confidently predicted because we are set in the context of evolving relationships.
The collective wishes of the people of Northern Ireland should be paramount in future developments but independence must be tempered by realism. We live in an interdependent world and relations beyond as well as within Northern Ireland are crucial. Our deep divisions mean that we need a formula for change beyond the simple 50% + one majority. Such a decision could be based on the preferendum advocated by the De Borda Institute. This measures consensus for any option and ensures that majorities don't ride roughshod over minorities. Whatever way we travel, the Good Friday Agreement takes majority consent seriously and makes constructive change possible. It also ensures we can remain Irish and/or British as we so choose. We damage that achievement at our peril.
