According to reports Jeffrey Donaldson claims he was forced out of the UUP because of his anti-agreement stance. This is untrue. Jeffrey was given every opportunity to promote his views even when the methods he used damaged his own party.
His friends called endless council meetings going over the same ground and harassing long-suffering members. He only resigned when it was clear he had failed to undermine the settled will of the party but could not bring himself to retake the party whip at Westminster.
Donaldson negotiated the 1998 agreement but, by leaving the field at the last hurdle, he betrayed the party leadership at a crucial stage. He then began a long, slow and damaging campaign against party policy – a path hammered out decades previously by Ian Paisley. Yet David Trimble remained frustratingly patient where other political leaders would have swiftly put an end to the disloyalty.
Jeffrey now threatens to join the enemies of Ulster Unionism, a prospect that makes many Lagan Valley voters feel bitterly betrayed. Having voted UUP they now find two of their MLAs being transformed into DUPes. Ian Paisley naturally jumps to Donaldson's defence, gleeful at the prospect of inflicting further damage and arguing there is not one voice left to defend David Trimble. Paisley fails to appreciate that the UUP, unlike the DUP, is a democratic party with no semi-permanent politico/religious dictator at its core. If and when a new leader is needed, the UUP will elect one but not before.
It was to end the morass of violence and chaos largely fomented by Paisleyism that Trimble engaged in a process to bring the nonsense to an end and create a basis for peace and stability. Trimble showed courage and acumen beyond the ken of his detractors. Progress has been so rapid that old Paisleyism is finished and new Paisleyism faces stark choices even by Nigel Dodds' reckoning. Dodds said (Irish News 22/12/03): "The only arrangements which will work are those which are supported by a majority of nationalists and unionists." He accepts that this presents Paisley with "difficult choices" and admits, "there is no alternative" – precisely what Trimble has been telling the DUP. Since Paisley's days as street preacher and ranter he has taken the easy road of hindering change and progress by stoking fears and uncertainties among his followers. This was potentially a powerful weapon but Paisley was neither the first nor the most effective at manipulating his followers in this way – Hitler and Mussolini managed to threaten the whole of Europe and beyond.
By comparison democratic politicians may appear weak and ineffectual but demagogues inevitably face their final demise at the hands of the democrats.
This is because demagogues can only fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time, they can never fool all of the people all of the time. Democracy in the end defeats all their machinations and subterfuges.
Ulster Unionists and other democrats must not flinch in face of the task that lies before them. They have brought republicans to the point of decommissioning and disbandment and have seen Northern Ireland transformed – such progress will continue. Paisley may momentarily lead Northern Ireland's biggest party but this squeezes him into the last chance saloon to test his metal. He may try to achieve the seemingly impossible. As early as 1970 it was said, 'Give Paisley the reigns of power and he will make the necessary concessions'. He certainly appears to crave respectability and harbour hopes of going down as a statesman by ending the stalemate he helped create and must be given enough rope for this unlikely task.
Paisley fed his people with sweetie mice for so long that rapprochement with nationalists is likely to prove impossible for it would require disbandment of his never-never-never-land tribal politics. His rhetoric inflamed the fears of nationalists and strengthened the determination of republicans to meet violent rhetoric with violence. It is now hard to see how he might find enough courage to initiate the necessary compromises. The defection of UUP right-wingers is unlikely to strengthen progressive elements in the DUP because most are further to the right than the DUP.
But Ulster Unionists have against all the odds helped set in motion a process of renewal that seems unstoppable. Even if Stormont fails a hopeful scenario remains. This is centred on the developing quasi-federal relationship between our islands in which Northern Ireland plays a significant role in bringing together our once estranged islands in mutually supportive relationships. In that context Paisleyism may prove to have been its own gravedigger.
