The fundamental question to be answered as the review of the agreement looms is whether or not the DUP and Sinn Féin will be able to work something out together.
Political Correspondent William Graham looks at the prospects for the testing times that lie ahead and sees that however bleak things may appear, Northern Ireland politics always has the potential to throw some surprises at us.
January can be a cold political month but the temperature could rise in the review talks when the most basic question has to be faced and that is – can the DUP and Sinn Féin engage and find a compromise?
A betting man would not waste much money on the odds of a thaw in the ice-cold atmosphere that exists between these two parties, never mind even dreaming about an accommodation.
Yet the review of the Good Friday Agreement has to go ahead even if the pessimists confidently predict that Northern Ireland is in for a protracted period of direct rule.
Politics can be full of surprises of course and just occasionally in the north of Ireland the pessimists can be proved wrong. But it should be emphasised there will only be a short window of opportunity for the DUP to show that they have any interest in a deal involving properly working powersharing devolution or are more keen to suck whatever life remains from the ailing Belfast agreement.
The IRA will itself have to do some serious thinking in the new year about its future and its remaining arms dumps (even after some significant acts of decommissioning).
Sinn Féin has achieved a strong electoral mandate and now the question must be: what is to be done with that mandate?
The British and Irish governments will have to think ahead if the agreement cannot be fully implemented.
They also have to live up to their commitments on a range of issues including normalisation, human rights, justice etc.
Talk of some kind of shadow administration being set up to run alongside direct rule is just not realistic, as most parties (apart from the DUP) would be opposed to this idea.
The real danger is that failure to reach a political accommodation will plunge Northern Ireland into a vacuum with all the dangers attached which could impact on our imperfect peace, and stoke up trouble specifically in the interface areas this summer.
By now the parties will have sent letters to the governments outlining their views on what the review should entail and the areas to be covered.
Most parties appear to be of the view that the review should not be dragged out and that it be short, sharp and very focused. By mid-January the public should know whether the political parties and the governments can make progress, or if it is all to end in tears.
The pro-agreement parties which together have most assembly seats maintain it will not be a renegotiation of the Good Friday Agreement.
The DUP, which is now the official voice of unionism with 30 seats (and possibly three more if Jeffrey Donaldson and colleagues join), want a new agreement. Given these diverse positions this all looks like a complex Rubix cube puzzle that will be really difficult to solve.
While it looks a tall order to try and get the DUP to share power with Sinn Féin, it has to be said that the two parties do work under the same roof at local government level.
The atmosphere for talking is however not good at present given the DUP's refusal to directly dialogue with republicans and also the fact that there is now a sourness between Sinn Féin and the British government.
Republicans argue that the IRA did make an important move on decommissioning in 2003 but the British government was still holding back on its commitments in what was supposed to be a sequence of steps.
The British government will in turn indicate that the acts of completion issue has not gone away.
While a lot of the focus has been and will be on the IRA the point should be made that loyalist paramilitaries have not even made a start to decommissioning their weapons and this seems to have been forgotten about.
The best guess in terms of the timing of the review is that it will get underway in mid-January, although this will be complicated by the fact that the Irish government will be very busy with the European presidency.
It is expected that the talks will be chaired by Secretary of State Paul Murphy and Irish foreign affairs minister Brian Cowen.
This is except for strand one relating to internal northern issues which will just involve Mr Murphy.
The review procedures suggest that each institution may, at any time, review any problems that may arise in its operation and, where no other institution is affected, take remedial action in consultation with the relevant government or governments.
The SDLP has written to leaders of all the pro-agreement parties urging them to meet in early January to coordinate positions in the forthcoming review.
The idea is that the pro-agreement parties need to stand up together for the agreement and live up together to all its requirements.
With the Ulster Unionists in some disarray post election, the chances of some pro-agreement unity in negotiations looks slim.
Meanwhile, Alliance Party general secretary Dr Stephen Farry offers an interesting analysis that, within the context of the comprehensive review, some changes to the political structures are now inevitable, provided that any such alterations are consistent with its underlying principles.
These fundamentals include – human rights, equality of opportunity and equality of citizenship, entrenchment of the principle of consent, power-sharing devolution, accountable north- south structures and commitments to democracy and non-violence.
According to Dr Farry, theoretically it is possible to design political structures to make it possible for the DUP and Sinn Féin to coexist within the same government without actually having to deal directly with each other.
Such measures may be superficially attractive as a short-term fix, Dr Farry said, but they would not provide long-term peace and stability, never mind the strong and effective government Northern Ireland needs.
Alliance argues that rather than a Balkanised involuntary coalition at Parliament Buildings, Stormont, we need an executive that is formed following negotiations between the parties, that is capable of adhering to collective responsibility and has the support of a weighted majority of members of the assembly to ensure a cross-community membership.
Dr Farry said there is also a need to strengthen the power of the assembly committees as these were supposed to fulfil a major policy making role, and also to provide a check on the power of ministers, but they have fulfilled neither function to date. And Dr Farry emphasised that sectarian designations should be abolished, and the voting system amended, with a weighted majority of around 65% used on key decisions requiring cross-community support.
Also Dr Farry said that north-south structures were the most controversial element at the end of the multi-party talks in 1998, but have been the quiet success story of the Good Friday Agreement. He suggests that these structures "need a higher profile" and there is a strong case for seeking to develop co-operation even further to realise the practical benefits.
