'The pigs have taken over the farm' – that's how one long-time SDLP voter described the election results to me at the weekend. Rough talk, but when you're hurting you say all sorts of things. Besides, the pigs and the other animals in Animal Farm ejected the drunken and incompetent Farmer Jones, although I don't think that's what my SDLP voter had in mind.
The only consolation the SDLP have is that it could have been worse. Not much, though. They're the ones nursing the bloody nose and the damned sore jaw, not the DUP. Mark Durkan says Sinn Féin and the SDLP have simply switched places in seat numbers, and that when Sinn Féin had 18 seats, much was made of that total. Indeed. Except that Sinn Féin's 18 was that of a party on the up, headed for the heights. The SDLP's 18 is that of a party hurtling skull-first for the pavement.
Some kind commentators have suggested the SDLP might save itself by becoming the Fine Gael of the north – a sizeable party, if incapable of mounting a solo threat to its main rival. Alternatively, the SDLP could become Fianna Fail in the north. A merger with the FFers would cut the ground from under Sinn Féin's claim to be the only all-Ireland party, but it would have two major drawbacks. It would advance all-Ireland politics, which is what Sinn Féin want and Fianna Fail/SDLP don't; and it would leave Fianna Fail with a sickly northern branch it could ill afford to support.
John Hume put peace before party interests when he entered into talks with Gerry Adams in the early 1990s.
It was a brave and momentous decision that has reaped enormous benefits. Now the SDLP can make an equally brave and momentous decision, putting nationalism before party interests. They can merge with Sinn Féin.
Whether the UUP can find a road back from the wilderness depends on matters beyond their control. As David Trimble has pointed out, the DUP is in the driving seat. Whether they'll dazzle us with their driving skills remains to be seen. Because, free from the burden of trying to keep the wilder reaches of unionism happy, David Trimble sounds feisty. You get the feeling he's good and ready to take Jeffrey Donaldson round the back of Cunningham House for the beating of his political life. You can see why some of Jeffrey's erstwhile supporters have begun to inch away from him. You don't want to be in the area of a thumping in case you end up getting thumped yourself. Stand clear: strong party leader about to go to work.
Then with Jeffrey in the unionist A&E or even the party morgue, Trimble will be free to renew his attack on Paisley. Time to check out the elusive organ-grinder, time for the Wizard of Oz to show if there's anything behind all that thunder and bluster.
There are two alternative scenarios after that. In the first, the DUP spend the next six months coming up with nothing but a string of resounding Nevers, the unionist electorate grows increasingly disenchanted, and it all ends in tears.
A few weeks ago the UUP looked as if they had just about reached a point where the IRA would begin to go away. If the election results have brought the DUP clumping onto the scene only to scare away the decommissioning hare, what's the point? A surging Sinn Féin, no devolved government, and the IRA arsenal locked against further scrutiny and destruction? Come back, UUP, all is forgiven.
The alternative is that the DUP begin to prosper. Somehow, probably using sedatives, they manage to damp down Paisley, apart from the occasional gulder to keep the Portadown/Ballymena half-wits happy. Meanwhile, Robinson, Dodds, Campbell and Co pick up where Trimble left off. Yes, they promised they'd never go into government with Sinn Féin while the IRA was intact – but look, the IRA has resumed decommissioning, hasn't it?
So it's only sensible for the DUP to work with the Shinners. Peter and Nigel and Gregory put in two years as hard-working ministers, Westminster 2005 rolls round, and the unionist electorate reward the now-Paisleyless Paisley party with a whopping number of MPs. Given that script it would be end of road, sweet dreams, Goodnight Vienna for the UUP.
So for David Trimble and his downcast men, there is a way back, maybe. But for Mark Durkan and his sad 17, bad news. At least half the pigs are here to stay.
