Intensive consultation is going on among republicans about IRA disarmament, what form it should take and whether they are willing to do it, Dublin sources said last night (Friday).
Republicans are also discussing what the British government might be prepared to offer on demilitarisation in the north.
If there is a decision in principle by the IRA to go down the road of total disarmament, then the British will respond on the normalisation issue and the closure of military bases.
Dublin sources told the Irish News: "The devil will be in the detail as to what the IRA believe is completing their acts of completion and whether it meets the British definition, and then what the British do in response to it."
Within the next fortnight it is expected that Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and Prime Minister Tony Blair will meet to discuss some of the details of an outline plan in this new phase of talks on attempting to fully implement the Good Friday Agreement.
This Blair/Ahern summit will look at where the process is at, what has been achieved at official level and what needs to be done.
Officials from both governments have been meeting about the broad outline of the agenda covering policing, normalisation, disarmament, stability of the institutions, and human rights and equality.
Dublin sources said: "Sinn Féin are obviously talking to the IRA and there is certainly a lot of consultation going on about what form that disarmament should take and whether they are willing to do it.
"The IRA New Year statement essentially was... well if we are going to take risks in relation to this, the British must be willing to deliver on normalisation.
"The key to that is that if there is a decision in principle by the IRA to go down that road, I think the British will respond. Blair said that in his Belfast speech."
Some observers believe, however, that the one imponderable in the equation – no matter what happens – is that Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble may still be unhappy.
"If you go down this road and do these various things, does it guarantee that the institutions will get up and running before the election? That is anyone's guess.
"There is still a question whether there is a majority on the unionist side in favour of the Good Friday Agreement," Dublin sources said.
It appears that, at this stage, the British and Irish governments are going to insist that the assembly election in May goes ahead.
The timeframe therefore for a deal on the implementation plan is between now and mid-March.
Officials from both governments have been talking to Sinn Féin about what the IRA may do in terms of disarmament and the coming weeks will be crucial as to whether this develops into concrete moves.
At the moment the discussions are very tentative in terms of paramilitary disarmament and the non-existence of paramilitary organisations in the future.
One scenario is that the format of any progress would be decided by the republicans themselves and in conformity with republican tradition.
However, the net effect would be the republican movement saying that the war is over and that there is no longer a need for the IRA to exist or that it can be stood down – whatever terminology is used.
If there is disarmament no-one knows yet whether it will be decommissioning by stages and whether video evidence will be provided; and what part the Decommissioning Commission will play in a verification process.
Meanwhile, there is a problem regarding the withdrawal of the PUP from the talks process and the fact that loyalist paramilitaries don't seem to be playing any part at all in the planning for arms decommissioning.
Again, observers believe there will have to be loyalist decommissioning or, alternatively, the police will have to move to deal with loyalist weapons.
