It may seem morbid as you lower your glass from toasting the New Year, but here's a question: how long will it be before Tony Blair dies? What about Bertie Ahern? Gerry Adams? Joe Cahill? All four have made predictions linking the span of their lives with the arrival, or non-arrival, of a united Ireland, so interest in their health goes beyond the personal.
The first time he came here as British prime minister, Tony Blair told an assembled audience that nobody in the room would live to see a united Ireland. He didn't say there'd be a united Ireland over his dead body, but he was definite it wouldn't be in his lifetime.
Gerry Adams and Joe Cahill, in contrast, have both said they expect to see a united Ireland. Joe is thirty years older than Gerry, so he's the one we have to watch. Given that Queen Elizabeth's mother died last year aged 101 and that Joe couldn't possibly have drunk as much gin, the republican veteran might expect another ten-to-fifteen years anyway. Which would leave him nearing the 100 mark and the year 2016. By then Gerry will be around 70. So will Bertie Ahern. Last weekend the Taoiseach said he believed a united Ireland was possible within his lifetime. He wouldn't commit himself to any dates, though. Nor did he tell us how unity would come about. Gerry and Joe have also been a bit short on specifics.
So how might it happen? Until recently, most nationalists would have pointed to the growth of the Catholic population, but the new census figures have thrown cold water on that. Protestant numbers have declined by five%, Catholic numbers are up by two%, but the gap is still substantial. (That's assuming you accept that nothing funny was done with the reallocation of that undeclared 11%. Not all of us do.) However, as Gerry Adams once said, out-breeding the opposition may sound like fun for those with the energy, but it hardly amounts to a strategy.
So what would? How might republican Bertie-Gerry-Joe's hopes be promoted, and unionist Tony Blair's frustrated? Maybe start with a look at the pound in your pocket. A year ago the euro became a part of everyday European life. In economic terms, the common currency for a free-trade area makes a lot of sense; in psychological terms it makes even more. On a daily basis it is a reminder to millions of people that they enjoy a common European identity. Were the euro the shared currency throughout this island, the absurdity of the border would be brought home every time we bought a loaf or paid for a round. That's why unionists like Edwin Poots get hot and bothered when nationalists like Sean Farren point out that not being in the euro is costing the north dear. Poots knows the economic argument is true, but is scared stiff that a shared currency might encourage a shared sense of identity. Which it would. Another way in which Irish unity will be hastened is through shared institutions. That's why some unionist leaders keep jumping out of the cross-border bodies. Not because such bodies don't make economic and common sense when delivering health, education, agriculture. It's because research shows that working together for a common goal is the quickest and most enduring way to develop a shared identity.
But perhaps even more crucial than cross-border bodies is the organisation of political parties on the island. Sinn Féin at present is the only party that contests elections throughout the thirty-two counties. But last weekend Bertie Ahern said that the Good Friday Agreement had changed "the context and the dynamic of politics on this island". Translated, that means "we're seriously looking at contesting elections in the north".
Leave aside Bertie's motivation for such a move (fear of Sinn Féin), leave aside the practical consequences (whither the SDLP?). The fact is, as Sinn Féin gradually builds its party from its northern base into the south and Fianna Fail moves from the south to the north, other political links and convergences will develop in response. A lot of Protestants, trapped in old ways of thinking, will recoil from such change. Others, more open-minded – with time, as many as 20% – will weigh the indignity of clinging to the hand of a reluctant 'Mother Britain' against the respectful handshake of fellow-Irish citizens, and choose the latter. Should we put a date on the day when that breakthrough in Protestant thinking will come? Suit yourself. But you know what they say: goals are dreams with a deadline.
