Last week I suggested that as many as 20% of the Protestant population would be prepared to hear the argument for a united Ireland. Among the emails I received was one from a young Protestant. He starts "Jude – I'm one of those 20% prods who you feel are a realistic target and have many friends who think along roughly the lines you expressed in your Irish News article."
But he's fed up with vague talk about a united Ireland. He wants to hear specifics about the way health, education and tax rates might look in such a new situation. He has small children and is already making provision for their university education – rather more specific planning, he suggests, than is to be seen among those who talk of a united Ireland in 2016. "Convincing a sizeable proportion of northern prods on the benefits of UI can be achieved – I'm interested in the future and where my best interest lies. In the long-term that would seem to be in a state where we (people of NI) make up 30% of overall population rather than an irritating 2-3%."
However, he doubts if a majority of southerners would be interested in the practical reality of a united Ireland.
Here's an edited version of my reply.
Dear David (not his name),
You may be right about a lot of people in the south not wanting a united Ireland. This is an argument one hears quite a bit. I think there are some people in the south who feel that way but they are thinner on the ground than some claim. Those in the south who don't like the idea of closer enmeshment with the north take that line almost exclusively for security reasons – they're scared of UDA bombs in Dublin, etc – rather than because they think it would impose an economic burden. That's not to say there wouldn't be a burden, but I think they'd be prepared to work with it if they could be sure it wouldn't also involve a loyalist IRA in a UI, as it were.
I think you're right to want to know the score on health, education, etc in a UI – but it's a bit hard to be too specific, given that governments of states that have been in existence for yonks fight shy of being too specific about such things prior to an election, on the grounds that they'll need to see the books, consider the economic circumstances of the time, etc. If we look at the two states on the island, there's a general perception that the north does better in terms of health, education and such things. But a closer look might suggest it's more like the roads thing. It used to be that once you crossed into the south, the roads got worse – now it's near to the other way round. In other words, the south has progressed considerably and the north has fallen back. Ditto with education – I've worked with teachers in Donegal, sitting in the same classes as teachers from the north. They're at least as hard-working, informed and motivated as their northern counterparts. Plus the south doesn't have the appalling 11+, which has to be a plus. And you have to fork out £1,000 per year for each child at university here – or I do anyway – while in the south there are no university fees. In fact, the main problem in terms of equalisation would be to find ways that the annual British financial subvention to the north could be done without. That's not an easy one, but there are clear benefits to the economy of the north and the south that would flow from unity, that would in part counter that. Plus I would have thought there'd be a transition period, with British, American and European support until the new state was fully functioning. Tax rates in the south are a problem, when compared with the north, you're quite right; but I think they're more reasonable than they were, and the expectation is for further reduction. Plus in some areas – for example capital gains – you get hit twice as hard in the north as in the south.
Thanks for prodding (no pun intended) my flabby thinking. I believe there's more to politics than what some term 'real politics' – bread and butter stuff – but like yourself I also think there's more to it than symbols and rallying cries.
Do keep in touch and let me know further thoughts. People like me need to be informed by people like you.
Happy New Year.
