If the three rebel Ulster Unionist MPs are not properly disciplined the UUP will revert to its rocky road of uncertain progress hampered at every turn by the reactionary agenda. If they are disciplined the wrath of anti-agreement factions will descend upon the heads of constructive unionists but a sounder basis for future progress and an end to the ceaseless round of futile Council meetings is likely.
The dissidents are convinced of divine imprimatur for their stance, which, they claim, has more validity than the deliberations of mere mortals. Thus Unionist Council decisions are presented as heresy and flouted with a clear conscience. Like the Johnny Adair faction of the UDA before their departure, rebels remain outwardly defiant but in their hearts they must suspect that their days of glory are numbered.
The difficulty lies in the nature of a party that presented itself as an umbrella that includes interests, opinions and associations united only in opposition. Being founded on an opposition means being subject to internal rivalries among potential leaders who vie with each other over who can appear most resistant to whatever threat can be dreamed up.
The associated Orange block has remained an integral part of the party for almost a century to be courted and abused by rivalling suitors. Now dominated by DUP interests, the Orange Order provides handy platforms for dissident politicians who fight for personal supremacy and retain positions on the Ulster Unionist Council while supporting hardliners.
As early as the O'Neill era, fundamentalist extra-mural Protestants, who depicted the gathering storm as a conflict between good and evil, infiltrated the UUP to appeal to traditional fears. These people formed a fifth column inside while their Paisleyite friends stirred the sectarian pot outside making it impossible to introduce the required reforms.
Had the old fears not been whipped up, unionists and nationalists alike might have supported reform and ended the nightmare of lifelong crisis.
Recently I spoke with an intelligent Young Unionist about the civil rights demands of the 1960s and was surprised how horrified they seemed to be on learning that "one man one vote" had not been immediately conceded. That demand is retrospectively seen as legitimate and just. As for Burntollet, this Young Unionist was completely oblivious to the memory of a shocking attack on a bunch of radical students.
Clearly many on the right don't understand the background to a conflict that developed over decades leaving the same old faces to fight the same old battles with obsolete weapons. Those who instigated the recent rebellion are the same warhorses using the same rhetoric. They tie the hands of an otherwise progressive and potentially dynamic leadership and, make no mistake about it, should Reg Empey be manipulated into leadership, he is likely to remain a lame duck tied hand and foot until the right wing can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Ulster Unionists could choose from a variety of options that all boil down to a choice between two. They could cease their obsession with Republicans, stop shilly shallying, deal with the rebels and launch a modern reformed political party with policies that can appeal to all sections of this community. The alternative is a final retreat into the obscurity of the dinosaurs.
Thinking of dinosaurs brings Ian Paisley's party to mind, but even the DUP realises that ancient tribal rhetoric is of limited utility.
The grandfather of all reaction is now only to be wheeled out when the troops feel jaded. Otherwise strenuous efforts are made to present the DUP in a wholesome, modern light based on their pseudo-democratic credentials.
Meanwhile many rebels, dissidents and conspirators huddle inside the Unionist party hoping to inflict major damage if the UUP doesn't submit to their reactionary agenda. Those now calling on the leadership to mend bridges are not facing the challenge but acting in the short-term interests of expediency and self-service.
This should be a time for straight talking and resolute action. Wrong decisions could condemn us again to the backwaters of reactionary irrelevance heralding terminal decline and impotence.
It is impossible to go forward by constantly looking back and fighting the same battles.
Unionists rejected O'Neill nearly 35 years ago and have moved backwards and forwards in fits and starts ever since. Now is the time to leave that reactionary past behind.
One of the rebels promised to "consider his position" if he didn't win, but when he lost, the council of the dinosaurs prevailed and the three decided to maintain their sterile stance from within.
To leave would have meant entering a more uncertain world, so they decided to stay to dirty the nest for everyone else.
