Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern are now expected to publish the Hillsborough 'declaration' within the next fortnight – and it is anticipated that soon afterwards the IRA will make a dramatic move.
The Prime Minister and the Taoiseach are due to set out the declaration, attached annexes and papers on such issues as the proposed highly influential international monitoring body.
Shortly after the publication of these documents the hope in British and Irish government circles is of a big move by the IRA on the ending of all paramilitary activity.
As well as seeking an end to all paramilitary activity the governments will await anxiously a decision by the Ulster Unionists to re-enter devolved government in the event of acts of completion.
At this stage in the peace process discussions, officials from both governments do not yet know exactly what the IRA is going to do, but there is growing anticipation of a significant move forward in the peace process.
Some observers believe that a decision has already been made in principle inside republicanism that the IRA will take certain steps in the coming weeks after the publication of the Hillsborough declaration.
The document will be published together with a number of annexes – on policing, criminal justice, demilitarisation, and equality/rights/language – plus two documents in relation to monitoring and compliance (sanctions) and the 'on- the-runs' issue.
The declaration will reaffirm the principles of the Good Friday Agreement and will include wording on the need to end all paramilitary activity, including punishment beatings.
- on policing the annex will refer to the police bill, including a number of amendments. The wording will reflect established policy of the Policing Board and/or PSNI. Regarding plastic bullets the aim is to have a safe and scientific alternative in place by 2005
- on criminal justice there will be an enhanced role for the Police Ombudsman in reference to the Director of Public Prosecution's Office. It is believed there is to be a further restriction placed on the powers of the Lord Chief Justice. Various models for the devolution of justice and policing will be put forward and it will be up to the parties to reach agreement
- on demilitarisation this annex will have two streams – military and policing. The immediate spotlight turns on the British military and the documentation will be very specific in references to army fortifications, barracks and outposts
The monitoring and compliance paper will put forward the idea of an international body, made up of representatives from the Irish, British and US governments and a member from Northern Ireland.
This Hillsborough declaration looks like a politically tall order but, in reality, the pressure is now on. British government sources confirmed last night (Wednesday) that the declaration would be published soon "in anticipation that everybody will respond to the proposals in whatever way is appropriate."
"We hope everybody will be able to sign up to acts of completion, not just the paramilitaries, but everybody else."
Irish government sources said "the hope is that the parties will respond accordingly – but we will have to wait and see."
