Among the many questions Tony Blair side-stepped at his press conference yesterday (Thursday) were these two: are the elections merely postponed to the autumn, or will there be a definite date?; and secondly, will there have to be a deal before elections take place?
Blair muttered something about having to wait to hear what the Irish government had to say, as if he'll listen.
Blair's failure to answer those questions indicates that the collapse of the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement which he announced yesterday will last for quite some time. Here's why.
The British prime minister dwelt at great length on paragraph 13 of the joint declaration which deals with specific paramilitary activities – targeting, punishment beatings etc.
Another paragraph he did not mention, which is crucial for the prospect of any resurrection of the GFA, is paragraph 34 which refers to the scheduled review of the operation of the GFA. That is due in the autumn too.
What is certain to happen is that intensive negotiations around the review of the GFA's operations, which includes designation of parties as nationalist or unionist, cross-community consent voting, the pledge of office and nominations to the North-South Ministerial Council, will merge with negotiations on acts of completion by the British on the one hand and the IRA on the other.
David Trimble will not agree to go into an executive until there's a deal on all of these matters. There won't be one before Christmas. But the question is, which Christmas? As there'll be no election this autumn.
Here's another question. Anybody remember Trimble's demand for sanctions which so annoyed Sinn Féin?
Now have a look at the joint declaration published yesterday and its provision for an Implementation Monitoring Group.
Question: who's in it?
Answer: two members from the UK, one from Dublin and one from the US.
Question: what will it monitor?
Answer: precisely the topics Blair has demanded answers on in his famous paragraph 13.
Gerry Adams has said that the IRA "will" engage in no activities likely to undermine the GFA. Now just for the sake of argument, let's say an executive was up and running.
If the IRA did then engage in such activity, surely all this Monitoring Group has to do is report it and have Sinn Féin thrown out of the executive on a motion from the secretary of state.
Surely it would be a stupid risk for Sinn Féin to promise that the IRA will be dormant if it was certain the Monitoring Group would sling them out of administration following any IRA action?
In short, David Trimble demanded sanctions to be available against republicans. He got them.
Then he said he still wouldn't enter an executive unless the IRA stopped each of the very activities against which the sanctions were available.
So why did he want the redundant shopping list? Why does Blair give him belt and braces?
Answer: because David Trimble believ-ed correctly that republicans wouldn't accede to that request and he could avoid an election.
His claim that a postponement of the elections brings a resolution of the problems closer is arrant nonsense.
On the contrary, the taoiseach said yesterday it makes matters more difficult.
Now that the two governments' much-vaunted joint declaration has been published it turns out not to be so marvellous as they claimed.
Indeed it's surprising they got Sinn Féin to agree to some of the stuff it contains. The section on devolution of justice is particularly nebulous depending as it does on unionist goodwill. In any case, it cannot happen before the end of the next assembly… whenever that may be.
The annex on 'on the runs' is preposterous since it creates a new category of people convicted by a special tribunal of dubious legality under European Human Rights legislation – people whose civil rights will be denied like those of all others released on licence.
In this context it is worth noting that those in the DUP who rant about an amnesty are probably too young to remember that Ian Paisley benefited from an amnesty in May 1969 when he was released from jail under the amnesty granted to all those charged or convicted of offences committed in disturbances since October 1968. Hypocrisy or what?
Tony Blair, a man who sets no store by history and is therefore condemned to repeat its mistakes, apparently does not know that when elected institutions are pulled down in the north it takes a very long time to rebuild them… years in fact.
The only beneficiaries have always been those opposed to change. Do you think Trimble will want an election this time next year?
