Yesterday's (Tuesday) meeting in Dublin between the Taoiseach and the British prime minister showed how badly republicans have handled the last couple of months. All the stand-offs in the last ten years have essentially been a blame game for each collapse in negotiations to dismantle the special position of unionism in the north of Ireland. Naturally unionists resist this process and the finger of blame always points at them whenever it halts temporarily.
Not this time, though mind you, Tony Blair worked quite hard last week to alienate nationalist Ireland with his list of spurious reasons for calling off the assembly election.
What has really left republicans seething is that although the real reason for abandoning the election is unionist rejection of the Good Friday Agreement and their resistance to change, everyone is demanding action, or rather a detailed statement of inaction, from the IRA. The reason unionists have escaped blame for this state of affairs was laid out a couple of months ago by Fianna Fail Senator Martin Mansergh when he said words to the effect that republicans were providing unionists with their only pretext for refusing to participate in a northern administration. If the IRA army council had taken the initiative with a forthright statement from P O'Neill a couple of months ago they would have whipped away Trimble's fraudulent democratic credentials.
Martin McGuinness is absolutely correct to state that no matter what the IRA said Trimble would not have commended it to the Ulster Unionist Council. As you've read here often since last summer, he has no intention of returning to an executive with Sinn Féin. A forthright IRA statement would have exposed that truth for all to see.
Instead of such a statement Gerry Adams grovelled to the British government three times in the one week predictably receiving the back of the hand each time. Why he ended up in such an unedifying position is a mystery since after Easter, even if Trimble wanted to, there was no time for a UUC meeting to be called before an election. An unequivocal IRA statement before Easter would have been rejected by the UUC, would have incurred Tony Blair's wrath and would have split the Ulster Unionist Party down the middle. Is that outcome not a legitimate objective for Sinn Féin? Adams's self-abasement was not just too little, too late: it placed the ball at unionists' feet.
The result is that, faced with what is a wholly inadequate Joint Declaration, Sinn Féin can't demand the full implementation of even its scanty content without being repeatedly hit with counter-demands for an explicit IRA statement on paramilitary activity. Oh yes, the Irish government believes an 'enormous amount' of the declaration can be implemented. Really? Well where have they been during the last five years when it wasn't being implemented? Any of you remember hearing demands from the Irish government for a timetable? Furthermore, if you read the declaration you'll see it contains more conditions than an insurance policy for kamikaze pilots.
Tony Blair's administration here, advised by the pro-union NIO will stall shamelessly, pleading danger to pro-Agreement unionists even though the only part of the Joint Declaration that isn't in the GFA is George Quigley's emasculation of the Parades Commission. So Trimble's unionists sit back secure in the knowledge that they don't have to defend the fact that they oppose the Joint Declaration root and branch. Why do they oppose it? Simple: because it means implementing aspects of the Good Friday Agreement, and the UUP like the majority of unionists, is opposed to the GFA. Have you heard a cheep from David Trimble about the Declaration? No: nor will you. He'll simply say it's irrelevant until the IRA make a statement which satisfies our proconsul, for whom read said D. Trimble.
Republicans are correct to believe that if the IRA issued a statement written for them by David Trimble, Trimble still wouldn't fight an election. Equally Tony Blair is completely wrong to believe the UUP has been acting with good faith over the last five years. The only way to demonstrate the truth of these observations is for the IRA to pull the rug from under both Trimble and Blair. At the moment they have no intention of doing so having been backed into a corner since last October. So settle down for a long game. In the meantime, perhaps Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness could start explaining to their colleagues that in the Policing and Justice section of the Joint Declaration (pars 20-24 plus annex) the British have offered to dismantle the unionists' private army and judicature, the basis of their control of the north, and hand its supervision to local politicians including SF. Surely the least the IRA could do would be to offer to reciprocate?
