Yesterday (Thursday) was the day of the headlines, the shock results, new faces bursting on the scene, old faces slipping away: Dr Deeny in Tyrone, Alex Maskey, old face new scene in South Belfast, Philip McGuigan in North Antrim, Caitriona Ruane in South Down. We'll let the old faces slip away in silence.
You'll notice all new for old action was on the nationalist side. Sinn Féin's amazing performance in some constituencies like West Belfast, South Down and North Antrim tended to obscure the simple truth that across the north this election confirms the results of the 2001 Westminster election when Sinn Féin overtook the SDLP. This assembly election clearly marks the changing of the guard.
On the unionist side of the fence the DUP are crowing that they will be the largest party in the assembly. They're a bit premature. When you look at the figures you see that what the DUP has managed to do is mop up all the splinters and fractions which emerged in 1996, bits of PUP, UKUP, NIUP, UUC most of them personal ego trips. Their appearance in 1996 in the disgraceful Forum election John Major devised to stall the peace process simply represented the confusion and consternation in unionism at the thought that they might have to negotiate something. By tomorrow most of them will be gone and good riddance to their self-indulgence.
For the DUP to scoop them up however is not the same as overtaking Trimble's UUP. Watch for the fifth and sixth seats in unionist constituencies when the UUP scoop up the transfers. It's already clear they are receiving transfers from DUP, Alliance and yes, SDLP voters obeying Mark Durkan's instructions but receiving no reciprocation. In the 1998 assembly election the UUP ended up with the highest number of seats only because of transfers. So you could have the strange outcome that the DUP increases its share of the vote but doesn't inflict real damage on the UUP.
What will do damage to the UUP is the tumour growing within its own body: the appearance among its assembly members of half a dozen anti-agreement members led by Jeffrey Donaldson. This group will seek to act as king-makers offering support to DUP proposals to undermine the agreement, blocking any conciliation or negotiation which might lead to the resurrection of the Northern Ireland Assembly, lending credence to the DUP's demand for renegotiation of the Good Friday Agreement.
On that point it's salutary to remind them of two points Seamus Mallon made yesterday.
First the agreement does not depend on the Stormont institutions. It will continue to operate through the British-Irish Intergovernmental Council which deals as the agreement states 'with the totality of relationships' and acts as the replacement of Maryfield. It was set up specifically to cope with unionist attempts to wreck the agreement.
Secondly, as Mallon said, when you subtract all the issues that can't be renegotiated such as release of prisoners, the end of the RUC, a new criminal justice system, all-Ireland bodies, constitutional changes in the Republic, all the DUP and the Donaldsonites are talking about is tinkering with the institutions at Stormont so that they suit their own objectives and there's no way they're going to succeed in that. The agreement goes on without the institutions, a set of circumstances which should suit Sinn Féin, the dominant majority party of nationalism, down to the ground.
As a result of the voting on Wednesday it's perfectly clear that voters have elected a ghost assembly. Our proconsul upstaged the count at the King's Hall to inform the natives how much he had decided to pay them until they co-operated with each other since he knows he can't set a date for a new assembly to sit.
Why not? Well, as soon as it does the clock begins to tick. If there's no executive elected in six weeks there has to be another election. Do you think the outcome would be any different? That's why our proconsul told the natives that it wasn't just a matter of an assembly sitting: he had to be satisfied there would be an executive as well.
So there'll be a cooling off period during which our proconsul will consult the party leaders, then there'll be a review of the workings of the agreement by which is meant, let's be clear once again, how an assembly would work, nothing else.
In the meantime the election has proved what everyone knew already but most denied, namely that most unionists have not yet learned to live with an agreement which guarantees equality to nationalists, and that most nationalists have decided that Sinn Féin is the party which can best guarantee their aspirations. It will take a good while for those two new facts to be accepted.
