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Results could lead to 'short-term' problems

(Roy Garland, Irish News)

As I write Sinn Féin have performed exceptionally well in terms of first preference votes at the expense of the SDLP. Ulster Unionists votes have kept up well but the Democratic Union-ists have achieved some quite remarkable results mainly at the expense of the smaller anti-agreement parties.

Other smaller parties have not polled well and some may eventually disappear completely. It would be particularly unfortunate if the PUP were eliminated because of the major contribution they made to making agreement possible.

The Women's Coalition, Alliance and others are being squeezed but there are other ways to make a political contribution and in any case, transfers remain all important in the final outcome.

The strengthening of the hand of Sinn Féin should increase confidence among republicans and enable them more easily to engage in the final acts of completion that are so urgently needed.

There is some indication that a small number of unionists gave later preferences not only to the SDLP but also to Sinn Féin.

One unionist at a polling station in Belfast said he would vote right down the list for pro-agreement candidates including, with some scruples, for Sinn Féin. His aim was to express opposition to the DUP.

This kind of thing, together with votes for Sinn Féin from nationalists designed only to promote republican involvement in politics means that many votes for Sinn Féin do not necessarily indicate a hardening of attitudes but rather a desire to end paramilitarism and violence.

The success of Sinn Féin therefore places a grave responsibility on them to continue making progress towards politics alone.

Early results would appear to suggest that polarisation is being reinforced. Our traditional camps, on the face of it, appear to be driven further into opposing tribes making accommodation even more problematic. The decline in the SDLP vote is a major negative factor that would seem to reduce chances of agreement and accommodation. However the fact that the UUP seem to have maintained their position despite anti-agreement factions within and without is a hopeful sign.

We must face the reality that a large section of the unionist community are disenchanted and dismayed with lack of progress in the peace process as well as with as with the operation of the agreement.

I don't think they are rejecting accommodation but rather they are unhappy with what they perceive as the increasing marginalisation of their own community.

The calls by the DUP for renegotiation can be interpreted in two ways. Iris Robinson, on election immediately thanked God for her victory.

Ian Paisley also seems to regard elections as the work of a God who is obviously less than all-powerful and could not succeed in making the DUP the dominant party.

This kind of thinking suggests that a section of the DUP are trapped in an mindset that conflicts with the concept of democracy.

If this 'God is on our side' mindset prevails the DUP is likely to stymie political progress and bring us further into stalemate.

However some DUP spokesmen seem ready to find a means of negotiating with other parties including republicans. They will claim disingenuously that this amounts to a renegotiation of the Good Friday Agreement itself. But all constitutions should remain open to amendment and so should the agreement. It would be a major boost to have the bulk of the unionist population clearly on board and satisfied with this process.

The real struggle however could centre on the differences between the pragmatic and theocratic wings of the DUP. The theocratic wing can never be satisfiedunder any democratic system but each wing needs the other if the DUP are ever to take off and really fly.

In this sense the DUP are like republicans because both once gave strict adherence to ancient texts and ideas and political success could free them both from the constrictions of fundamentalism. No democratic system can encompass the rhetoric of a theocratic DUP or fundamentalist dissident republicanism. The review might therefore either reinforce deadlock or prove to be of major importance in opening up new possibilities.

The DUP certainly have legitimate concerns in terms of the need to bring a large section of anti-agreement unionists on board but if the religious/fascist element proves dominant accommodation would prove impossible.

Many DUP people are not completely sold on the idea that this is a religious struggle so progress is possible though it can never be guaranteed.

Whatever happens a return to the old ways seems highly unlikely. Rather as a community Northern Irish people may lose out in the short-term, by losing the opportunity to actively shape our own future.

Instead two governments could play an ever-increasing role in shaping our future.

November 29, 2003
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This article appeared first in the November 28, 2003 edition of the Irish News.


This article appears thanks to the Irish News. Subscribe to the Irish News



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