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Set for an SDLP/Sinn Féin showdown by the river

(Seamus McKinney, Irish News)

Former editor of the Derry Journal newspaper, Frank Curran has been covering elections for more than 50 years. He knows of the passion, quirks and kinks with which politics are approached in the Foyle constituency. From the days when the slogan – possibly for everyone standing – was vote early and vote often, to the more streamlined slick campaigns of more recent years.

Recalling one of his first polls, the 1945 general election, he remembers a celebrated personation case arising out of the contest when a Bogside lady decided to vote – several times.

"The first time she went into the booth nothing happened. The second time, the clerk thought he recognised her but couldn't be sure enough to say anything. Then the third time he was sure and shouted 'arrest that woman for personation'.

"She was duly arrested and appeared in court but it emerged that the third time she voted she was using her own vote and so she was acquitted and granted £50 compensation," he recalled.

Mr Curran believes the major talking point on November 26 in Derry will be the contest between the SDLP and Sinn Féin. He believes Sinn Féin has made up ground but it is too close a call to say if they will take one of the SDLP's three Derry seats to add to their two.

One of the more interesting aspects of this month's poll is the impact John Hume's retirement as party leader will have on the SDLP.

With a huge personal popularity, the Nobel Peace laureate strode through elections with ease in his native city, pulling others in his wake.

Derry is the capital of northern nationalism. It has provided most of the leaders of Irish nationalism since partition, including Eddie McAteer, Mr Hume, Martin McGuinness, Mark Durkan and Mitchel McLaughlin.

Indeed, in what surely must be a unique situation, Mr Hume, Mr McGuinness, Mr McLaughllin and Mary Nelis all live within yards of each other.

One street alone boasts three separate candidates. Mr McGuinness, Mrs Nelis and Social Environmental Alliance candidate, Eamonn McCann are all neighbours on the same street.

The Foyle constituency covers Derry and its immediate hinterland. Slap bang up against the border, Derry has changed dramatically in the last 30 years.

Once synonymous with depression, oppression and poverty, now it is a vibrant and youthful city and constituency, although it still suffers from chronic unemployment.

With its huge, confident, nationalist majority swelling the Foyle valley, it provides leadership to nationalism and a barometer for trends within nationalism.

A key factor on polling day will be the fact that the electorate in Derry has dropped by about 5,000 votes. It is believed this will impact on all parties.

Other factors will be the decision by writer Eamonn McCann to stand. If he is not elected, Mr McCann's transfers could prove vital with most predicting they will go towards Sinn Féin's candidates.

Political observers throughout Ireland will look to Derry to assess the battle between the SDLP and Sinn Féin.

Home to SDLP leader, Mark Durkan, Derry has witnessed unseemly blood-letting in SDLP ranks.

Earlier this year, sitting assembly member Annie Courtney was dropped from the party ticket.

John Tierney – always a popular vote catcher for the party – is also standing down this time to concentrate on a management job within the party.

Against this, Sinn Féin is fielding high profile candidate, Raymond Mc-Cartney, a former leader of the IRA in prison.

The current editor of the Derry Journal, Pat McArt, believes there is little doubt that Sinn Féin has narrowed the gap but does not feel they will overtake the SDLP this time out.

Pointing out that in one previous election, the DUP's William Hay took three votes in the nationalist Creggan, Mr McArt said anything is possible but believes the Hume factor – even a retired Hume – is still strong in Derry and should still bolster the SDLP vote.

An examination of the 1998 assembly elections shows there are three SDLP quotas, approximately two Sinn Féin quotas and one and a bit of the quotas being unionist.

In the last local government elections, Sinn Féin took two SDLP seats on the cityside with the SDLP winning an extra place on the Waterside. This would show Sinn Féin is continuing to make up ground in Foyle.

Sinn Féin needs to find up to 5,000 votes to take a third seat. By any party's standard, that is a formidable task and so – neck firmly on the line – it looks like three SDLP, two Sinn Féin.

In Ulster Unionism in Derry, there are all sorts of problems with candidates dropping out at the last minute. The party only settled on candidate Mary Hamilton on Monday night and so – given the disorganisation and the fact that the UUP only polled 4669 first preferences in 1998 – it is unlikely that they will unseat the DUP's Willie Hay.

Factfile

Electorate: 65,311

Assembly members

Mark Durkan (SDLP), John Tierney (SDLP), Mitchel McLaughlin (Sinn Féin), Mary Nelis (Sinn Féin), William Hay (DUP), Annie Courtney (Independent).

Percentage share of the Vote

1998 assembly elections: UUP 9.57%, SDLP 47.84, Sinn Féin 26.02, DUP 12.53, Alliance 2.17, PUP 0.59.

2001 general election: UUP: 7%, SDLP: 50, Sinn Féin:27, DUP:15, Alliance: 1.

November 8, 2003
________________

This article appeared first in the November 7, 2003 edition of the Irish News.


This article appears thanks to the Irish News. Subscribe to the Irish News



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